Turkish lira slips as Trump unclear on sanctions

Turkey's troubled lira tumbled on August 13, 2018 to fresh record lows against the euro and dollar, piling pressure on stock markets on fears the country's crisis could spill over into the world economy.
Updated 19 July 2019

Turkish lira slips as Trump unclear on sanctions

  • At 0454 GMT, the lira was at 5.6295 against the dollar, easing from a close of 5.6150 on Thursday
  • The currency had firmed late on Thursday from levels around 5.7 earlier in the day after Trump said the United States is not currently looking at sanctioning

ISTANBUL: The Turkish lira weakened slightly early on Friday, giving up some of the gains made the previous evening as U.S. President Donald Trump was unclear over whether his administration was looking at imposing sanctions on Turkey.

His comments came following a U.S. decision to remove Ankara from the F-35 fighter jet programme after it began receiving delivery of the Russian S-400 missile defence system last week.

At 0454 GMT, the lira was at 5.6295 against the dollar, easing from a close of 5.6150 on Thursday. The currency had firmed late on Thursday from levels around 5.7 earlier in the day after Trump said the United States is not currently looking at sanctioning Turkey over its purchase of the Russian defence system.
But Trump appeared to contradict that comment later, saying such a move on sanctions was in fact under consideration, sparking confusion at a tense time for relations between the two NATO allies.

"It's a very, very difficult situation for a lot of reasons," Trump said, when asked if he had ruled out sanctions on Ankara. "So we're looking at it. We'll see what we do."
The first parts of the S-400 air defence system were flown to the Murted military air base northwest of Ankara last Friday, sealing Turkey's deal with Russia.


Economists fear a US recession in 2021

Updated 19 August 2019

Economists fear a US recession in 2021

  • Trump’s higher budget deficits ‘might dampen the economy’

WASHINGTON: A number of US business economists appear sufficiently concerned about the risks of some of President Donald Trump’s economic policies that they expect a recession in the US by the end of 2021.

Thirty-four percent of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics, in a report being released Monday, said they believe a slowing economy will tip into recession in 2021. 

That’s up from 25 percent in a survey taken in February. Only 2 percent of those polled expect a recession to begin this year, while 38 percent predict that it will occur in 2020.

Trump, however, has dismissed concerns about a recession, offering an optimistic outlook for the economy after last week’s steep drop in the financial markets and saying on Sunday, “I don’t think we’re having a recession.” A strong economy is key to the Republican president’s 2020 reelection prospects.

The economists have previously expressed concern that Trump’s tariffs and higher budget deficits could eventually dampen the economy.

The Trump administration has imposed tariffs on goods from many key US trading partners, from China and Europe to Mexico and Canada. 

Officials maintain that the tariffs, which are taxes on imports, will help the administration gain more favorable terms of trade. But US trading partners have simply retaliated with tariffs of their own.

Trade between the US and China, the two biggest global economies, has plunged. Trump decided last Wednesday to postpone until Dec. 15 tariffs on about 60 percent of an additional $300 billion of Chinese imports, granting a reprieve from a planned move that would have extended duties to nearly everything the US buys from China.

The financial markets last week signaled the possibility of a US recession, adding to concerns over the ongoing trade tensions and word from Britain and Germany that their economies are shrinking.

The economists surveyed by the NABE were skeptical about prospects for success of the latest round of US-China trade negotiations. Only 5 percent predicted that a comprehensive trade deal would result, 64 percent suggested a superficial agreement was possible and nearly 25 percent expected nothing to be agreed upon by the two countries.

The 226 respondents, who work mainly for corporations and trade associations, were surveyed between July 14 and Aug. 1. That was before the White House announced 10 percent tariffs on the additional $300 billion of Chinese imports, the Chinese currency dipped below the seven-yuan-to-$1 level for the first time in 11 years and the Trump administration formally labeled China a currency manipulator.

As a whole, the business economists’ recent responses have represented a rebuke of the Trump administration’s overall approach to the economy.

Still, for now, most economic signs appear solid. Employers are adding jobs at a steady pace, the unemployment rate remains near a 50-year low and consumers are optimistic. US retail sales figures out last Thursday showed that they jumped in July by the most in four months.