OPEC sees tighter 2017 crude market

Updated 12 July 2016
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OPEC sees tighter 2017 crude market

LONDON: OPEC has given an upbeat outlook for the oil market in 2017, saying global demand for its crude would be higher than its current production and pointing to a supply deficit rather than a sizeable surplus that has weighed on prices.
However, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in a monthly report also cut its forecast for world economic growth this year, citing increased uncertainty following Britain’s vote to leave the European Union and said the pace of oil demand growth would slow slightly next year, in its first 2017 forecast.
“After the UK’s referendum to leave the EU, economic uncertainty has increased,” OPEC said in the report. “Potential negative effects have led to a downward revision of global economic growth in 2016 to 3.0 percent from 3.1 percent.”
Other forecasters including the International Monetary Fund have cut economic growth outlooks following the UK referendum. Concern about the economic impact of Brexit has weighed on oil prices, which at $47 a barrel have fallen from a 2016 high close to $53 in early June.
World oil demand will rise by 1.15 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2017, OPEC said, its first forecast for next year in the monthly report. That marks a slight slowdown from growth of 1.19 million bpd expected in 2016.
Oil prices have halved from two years ago in a drop that deepened after OPEC refused in late 2014 to cut output to support prices, hoping that cheaper oil would curb higher-cost rival supply such as US shale.
Despite a “dampening effect” of Brexit on the world economy next year, OPEC’s 2017 market outlook suggests the strategy is working as it expects oil supply outside the group to fall further, helping to boost demand for its own crude.
OPEC forecasts supply from outside producers will decline by 110,000 bpd in 2017 after an 880,000-bpd drop this year. The price drop since 2014 has hit non-OPEC supply as companies have delayed or canceled projects around the world.
Oil output from OPEC, adjusted to include returning member Gabon, rose 264,000 bpd to 32.86 million bpd in June, OPEC said. It expects demand for its crude in 2017 to average 32.98 million bpd, suggesting a supply deficit if OPEC keeps output steady.
Saudi Arabia told OPEC it raised output to 10.55 million bpd in June. The kingdom said it pumped 10.56 million bpd, a record, in June last year.
OPEC’s report points to a sizeable average surplus of 1 million bpd this year, but also to demand for its crude exceeding current production in the third quarter. The last full quarter when OPEC pumped less than demand for its crude was in 2013, according to past OPEC reports.
“The contraction seen this year in non-OPEC supply is expected to continue in 2017 but at a slower pace,” OPEC said. “Market conditions will help remove overall excess oil stocks in 2017.”


OPEC may cancel April meet, but hold steady on oil output: Saudi energy minister

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Khalid Al-Falih that April may be premature to make any production decision for the second half. (Reuters)
Updated 13 min 54 sec ago
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OPEC may cancel April meet, but hold steady on oil output: Saudi energy minister

  • ‘As long as the levels of inventories are rising and we are far from normal levels, we will stay the course guiding the market toward balance’
  • ‘The consensus we heard ... is that April will be premature to make any production decision for the second half’

BAKU: OPEC and its non-OPEC partners need to reconsider if there is a need for a meeting in April, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said on Monday, adding that there was no pressure from the United States to increase supply.
“We are not under pressure except by the market,” Khalid Al-Falih told reporters ahead of a meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan.
“As long as the levels of inventories are rising and we are far from normal levels, we will stay the course guiding the market toward balance.”
The JMMC includes major oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia and monitors the oil market and conformity levels with supply cuts.
“There is a consensus that has also emerged that no matter what, we should stay the course until the end of June.”
Asked whether he was updated on whether the United States administration would extend the waivers it granted to buyers of Iranian crude, which are due to end in May, Al-Falih said: “Until we see it hurting consumers, until we see the impact on inventory, we are not going to change course.”
The oil producers are due to meet next in April in Vienna, but Al-Falih said this may not happen.
“The consensus we heard ... is that April will be premature to make any production decision for the second half,” Al-Falih said.
“We may not have a meeting in April,” he said, adding that the JMMC may recommend this later on Monday.