The price of abandoning Iraq
Pomp and ceremony were missing as the US began its troop pullout from Iraq, which took place in spite of the country’s prolonged political impasse and worsening security situation.
Almost seven years after America launched a full-fledged invasion of an Arab country, toppling its regime, destroying its infrastructure, and dismantling its army and other key institutions, its withdrawal elicited few cheers, especially from Iraqis.
Not that the 26 million plus Iraqis were happy with the US occupation, but the pullout of about 50,000 combat personnel in August could not have taken place at the worst time. It was no coincidence that the number of terrorist attacks, especially against civilians, shot through the roof in the past few weeks underlining the fact that Al-Qaeda and other groups remain active in Iraq.
The scourge of terrorism is only one of the concerns for Iraqis. In the absence of a political settlement to form a new government the specter of sectarian confrontation is keeping the country hostage. In fact none of the major issues troubling Iraqis and threatening the stability and sovereignty of their country has been satisfactorily resolved.
These include the future of the oil-rich enclave of Kirkuk, to which Arabs and Kurds both lay claim, the deterioration of infrastructural services in almost every corner of the country, widespread official corruption, rebuilding a strong army and security forces, Iranian influence on certain Shiite groups, incorporating Sunnis into political life, tense relations with Iraq’s neighbors, repatriating millions of refugees and achieving national reconciliation, among others.
It is indeed a long list, each promising a hazardous conclusion that could trigger confrontation and a total collapse of the country. If anything the US departure may hasten the process of disintegration that Iraq faces in the near future.
But in reality US forces, about 50,000 personnel, are still in Iraq and will continue to be there for an unspecified period of time. They are distributed in over 90 military bases throughout the country. They are there to support and assist Iraq forces, when needed, but they will stay out of the cities. Meanwhile, private American security firms are being handed multi-million dollar contracts to carry out odd jobs and assignments in Iraq. Iraqis still remember the killings that Blackwater agents were responsible for.
There are no figures on how many US mercenaries will be dispatched to Iraq to carry specific security assignments. But the issue is contentious and the majority of Iraqis are suspicious of their role.
Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari has expressed doubts about the wisdom of the latest American pullback. Last week he said that the stalled government, combined with the American troop withdrawal, created ideal conditions for insurgents to attack. Incumbent Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki echoed the same sentiments few days later and warned of a surge in militancy and attacks by Al-Qaeda members and Baathist operatives.
The political vacuum is the most dangerous factor today. The US pullout has added a new element to the current impasse. And while political horse-trading continues between major players and coalitions, the deteriorating security situation is adding pressure on an exhausted population.
It is difficult to understand America’s goals in Iraq today. Clearly if the country’s fledgling democracy collapses it will be a terrible setback to Washington’s objectives. The longer the political impasse the harder it will be for parties to reach reconciliation and resume the political process. Meanwhile, it is clear that Iraq’s Army and security forces are unable to deal with the mounting threat of terrorism which is spreading across the country.
But if the political process collapses and the country is swallowed by sectarian violence, what will the US do then? It has chosen to leave without coordinating with the government or even with Iraq’s neighbors. Few appreciate Washington’s motives and the fact that a beleaguered President Obama wants to divert resources and attention to Afghanistan where America is facing the prospect of a Vietnam-like finale.
But that is not an excuse to abandon Iraq to its fate. America promised Iraqis freedom, democracy and prosperity. It wanted to make Iraq a model country for Arabs to see and hopefully emulate. Instead it leaves Iraq as a failed state, a country ravaged by greedy politicians and contractors, a country on the brink of a sectarian war and a country that is yet to be rebuilt in spite of its huge oil wealth. Iraq today is a classic case-study of the failure of the neoconservative doctrine of direct regime change.
But if the US has abandoned Iraq and the Iraqi people, what can one say about its Arab and Muslim brethren? The US withdrawal should have triggered statements and policy position by Arab leaders and the Arab League. Instead there was no reaction whatsoever. It is strange because Iraq’s neighbors, in particular, have a huge stake in its future.
Today Iraq is a ticking bomb. It must overcome the political impasse if it is to avoid a breakout of sectarian violence and terror attacks, safeguard its sovereignty and geographic integrity and rise from its current failed state. It cannot do this on its own. It needs the commitment of its neighbors who stand to lose too if Iraq disintegrates.
— Osama Al Sharif is a veteran journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
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