World energy gets dirtier

Gerard Wynn

Published — Saturday 16 June 2012

Last update 16 June 2012 8:22 pm

| نسخة PDF Print News | A A

LONDON: Energy consumption among rich and developing countries got cleaner and dirtier respectively last year, in a starker than ever trend which reinforces how global climate action is now in the hands of emerging economies.
Carbon intensity of energy measures the CO2 emissions per unit of consumption, in other words how polluting energy is in carbon terms.
Recent data published by the energy company BP showed that such carbon intensity in OECD countries reached a record low last year, in data going back to 1965.
That reflected a vigorous trend toward deployment of renewable energy and gas, both less carbon-emitting than coal, against the backdrop of falling energy demand.
By contrast, in non-OECD countries, carbon intensity reached a 28-year high, following a leap in coal consumption, continuing an upward trend which started in 2000.
You now have to go back to 1984 for a time when non-OECD countries had a dirtier energy mix.
That matters because it is also these countries which are growing their energy consumption.
It is their energy policy, therefore, that will over-whelmingly decide the temperature of the planet at the end of the century and beyond: the signs are not promising.
The present transition away from coal to shale gas in the US and to renewable energy in the European Union is less important.
Calculating what happens next in global CO2 emissions requires an unpicking of trends in growth in GDP and energy consumption, and the available data suggest that there is no prospect for global CO2 emissions to stop rising.
In 2011, demand for energy grew fastest in absolute (not percentage) terms, in China, followed by India, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Turkey and Brazil, the BP data show.
In all these countries carbon intensity also rose.
Energy demand fell fastest in Japan, followed by Germany, Britain, France, the US, the Netherlands and Italy.
These countries all saw their carbon intensity of energy fall, with the exception of Italy and the Netherlands which saw small rises.
The message? Developed countries are cleaning up their energy system, but only at the margins as they replace ageing stock, in an effect more than offset by emerging economies which are both growing and becoming dirtier at the same time.
The result is surging CO2 emissions, both in non-OECD countries (up 6 percent in 2011) and globally (up 3 percent).
Scientists say global CO2 emissions should peak by 2020 and then start falling to keep climate change within safer, more predictable limits.
What do the BP data tell us about the chance of that?
In a simple equation, the world’s carbon emissions equal its carbon intensity per unit of energy multiplied by its total energy consumption.
For carbon emissions to start falling, carbon intensity must therefore fall quicker than energy consumption rises. At present, globally, both are rising.
Looking first at energy consumption, this is inextricably linked to economic output.
The forecast rate of global economic growth suggests no prospect for energy consumption to slow to a halt by 2020.
For example, the International Monetary Fund forecasts real (constant dollars) global GDP growth actually to accelerate through the decade, from 4.1 percent annually in 2013 to 4.7 percent in 2017.
The world is becoming more efficient (less energy intensive), by a very consistent 1 percent annually over all timescales in the past several decades: not enough to offset such forecast GDP growth.
Energy consumption will therefore continue to grow, probably by about 3 percent annually, barring global economic disaster or some disruptive, unforeseen advance in efficiency technology.
To hold back carbon emissions, therefore, the onus is on cutting the carbon intensity of energy consumption, by several percentage points annually, for example by replacing coal with wind, hydro, gas or nuclear.
In fact, the global carbon intensity of energy has been roughly flat for the past 25 years, rising by about 0.2 percent annually over the last decade (in line with emerging economies), and falling by the same amount in the decade before that.
There appears no prospect, therefore, of the kind of “greening” of the world’s energy supply — particularly in emerging economies — needed to stall growth in CO2 emissions.
That has important consequences either for disruptive policy change, where governments might suddenly introduce punitive carbon taxes, or the kind of dangerous climate change as predicted by scientists.
— Gerard Wynn is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.


What's happening around Saudi Arabia

JEDDAH: The Ministry of Education is planning to increase the role of its subsidiary committees in the region and governorates to address the issue of schools increasing the fees on one pretext or another.A source in the ministry has been quoted as s...
DAMMAM: All Saudi airports, particularly King Fahd International Airport (KFIA) in Dammam, lack a tourism attraction strategy which requires a formal decision from the government, said Saeed Al-Qahtani, an investor in the tourism sector.He said: “In...
JEDDAH: Interpol is looking for two Saudis — a former Jeddah mayor and former president of a sports club — who have been convicted in cases related to the 2009 flash floods here.The ex-mayor was sentenced to seven years in prison while the sports off...
RIYADH: The Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) recently discussed here the scope of cooperation with the Kingdom’s Public Education Evaluation Commission (PEEC) in the field of education.The delegation was headed...
RIYADH: Investors and proprietors of recruitment offices have blamed the Ministry of Labor for the rise in the number of illegal brokers, saying that some of the rules are actually counterproductive and promoting black market.The ministry has put a c...
DAMMAM: A period of 20 months will be granted to deliver residential apartments for beneficiaries in the Eastern Province, starting from the day of delivering land to developers, and not from the date of signing the contract with them, according to a...
ALKHOBAR: Bribery can be eliminated by applying the laws strictly and creating public awareness besides an active role by citizens, experts say.Abdulrahman Al-Zahian, a researcher in legal affairs and public policy, said: “The Saudi anti-bribery law...
JEDDAH: Zuhair Rahbeeni, a consultant at the Pediatric and Clinical Genetics Department of Medical Genetics at King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Center, said that the criteria used for premarital health examinations fall short of proper st...
JEDDAH: The police in Jeddah found a runaway girl after 17 days. A news website reported that she had gone missing after she took a taxi on one of Jeddah's roads.The mother of the girl said that the police found the girl on Friday after 17 days. She...
JEDDAH: Since the launch of the Asir Initiative, “Asir … a major tourism destination all year round,” under the patronage of Asir Governor and Chairman of the Tourism Development Council Prince Faisal bin Khalid at the end of 2013, the region has man...
RIYADH: King Saud University (KSU), which is leading the vanguard in promoting and supporting scientific research in the Kingdom, will host the Saudi international conference on scientific publishing for 2015 to discuss issues and challenges surround...
RIYADH: The National Committee for Contractors (NCC) at the Council of Saudi Chambers (CSC) and representatives from the Ministry of Labor denied on Sunday delays in releasing SR2,400 in compensation to contractors once the criteria have been finaliz...
MAKKAH: Being at the front of the House of God and the peace and tranquility in the Grand Mosque are feelings that cannot be described, said Egyptian pilgrim Abdul Rahman Mustafa.The Umrah pilgrim appeared to be very happy and content. “Thank God, I...
DAMMAM: Saudi Commission for Tourism and National Heritage (SCTNH) President Prince Sultan bin Salman and Eastern Province Gov. Prince Saud bin Naif will jointly sponsor the 3rd Saudi Conventions and Exhibitions Forum (Saudicef), scheduled for Nov. 8...
RIYADH: Every year, Saudis prepare for Eid Al-Fitr festivities with great joy and excitement. For children it is both fun and new clothes, which parents buy for them.With ten days to go until Eid Al-Fitr, shoppers were making a beeline to malls and o...

Stay Connected