Can Moscow be a game changer in Syria?

Annan’s last-ditch attempt to sway the Syrian regime to implement his plan has hit a dead end. His last visit to Damascus did not produce the desired outcome. Statements from Annan himself indicate that the veteran diplomat has given up and there is no possibility of any success to his six-point peace plan for Syria.
Obviously, Assad and Annan do not see eye to eye on the entire crisis. While Annan believes that there is a chance to defuse the political crisis in Syria, Assad does not see that there is a crisis in the first place. With this in mind, Assad reiterates that his country is the victim of an external conspiracy. Commenting on the Houla massacre, Assad was adamant that were it not for the external plot against his country, Syria would have not seen this butchery.
That Annan’s plan did not work should surprise no one. It is true that the plan is backed by the international community, but Assad does not feel that he has to comply with it. Noting that the West has failed to put a price tag on his defiance, Assad never felt the seriousness of the West especially with the news about the French-German rift over the issue. On top of that, the strongest nation on earth has made it perfectly clear that it would not intervene militarily. Interestingly, Washington wants to pass the buck on to Russia to embrace a new course and broker a deal.
But President Putin is yet to embrace this notion. In fact, it is difficult to spot a readiness on the part of Putin to adopt a different approach. That said, one cannot miss the new tone of Moscow. For the first time, Moscow castigated the Syrian regime in public for the massacre in Houla. Additionally, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that it did not matter who would rule Syria as long as stability would be restored. Russia must find it difficult to continue with its policy of support to a regime in a crisis-ridden country while the whole world feels that tolerance with what has been taking place is equal to collusion.
With over 13,000 Syrians killed and more than 130,000 fleeing the country, Assad can hardly hold for a long time. And yet, his strategy is still the same: Buying time hoping that the level of resistance will fade away. Assad has two options. First, he can cut his loses, step down with grace, and ask for political asylum in either Iran or Russia. Second, to continue with his policy that has the potential of dragging the whole country into a civil war.
It seems that many countries fear the scenario of chaos. Interestingly, Washington is among the relevant players who fear the consequences of chaos and a civil war in Syria. And yet, these countries need to put their money where their mouths are. Annan will come up with a new radical approach that involves Moscow and even Tehran. Therefore, observers are watching how the position of Moscow may evolve especially with the meeting between Putin and his Chinese counterpart. The two countries are under immense pressure to help stop the conflict. In the past, the two states have twice blocked UN resolutions against the Syrian regime. So far Moscow and Beijing remained opposed to forced regime change.
And yet, there has to be a way out. Assad and his cronies are not going to budge unless there is a genuine pressure. Assad even went as far as denying the involvement of his forces in the Houla massacre. In a televised speech, Assad condemned the massacre and depicted it as an "ugly crime" that even "monsters" would not commit!
I believe that Assad’s position is totally irrelevant as he is not expected to cooperate with any plan that can pave the way for his departure from the political scene once and for all. In a telephone call with Lavrov on Sunday, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton confirmed that the focus was on a political transition in Syria. "Assad's departure does not have to be a precondition, but it should be an outcome so the people of Syria have a chance to express themselves," she said during a visit to Stockholm. This wording of the American position is meant to help Russia take the initiative to implement a power transition in such a way that averts the slide of the country into a civil war.
In brief, if Russia accepts to play the role, Assad will have no room of maneuverability and he may cave in and Russia will be he game changer. If, however, Moscow declines to play this role, Assad will continue his approach with more bloodshed in the future. In this case there will be nothing but gloom and doom.