Gaza war: More than one message and one goal
There are some weird issues with regard to the war in Gaza. There are some gains for all parties — Hamas, Israel and Egypt under the leadership of Muslim Brotherhood. Obviously, these gains did not come accidentally but as a result of trade-offs and deals among all parties including Turkey and Iran. There are a number of beneficiaries of the Israeli offensive on Gaza, chief among them are Hamas and Ismail Haniyeh, who sought to take over Hamas especially after Khaled Meshaal became a diplomatic chip for other regional players.
If anything, the war will enhance the position of Haniyeh who still enjoys good and effective contacts with Tehran.
On the Israeli side, the looming elections will be highly competitive given the fact that Tzipi Livni revealed one aspect of her secret and private life in order to gain more Israeli votes. Netanyahu feels that he failed in convincing the American administration on war against Iran. This is true especially when the current administration had already contacted Tehran on the eve of elections. For this reason, Netanyahu picked the weakest link to rebuild the Israeli internal scene — even though it came at the expense of Palestinian blood — in such a way that it reinforces the conservative and rightist policies.
Netanyahu's plan to assassinate Ahmed Jabari — the most formidable military figure of the Islamic Jihad movement — paved the way for Gaza incursion. Many experts talk about a secret deal with Egypt whereby Israel will concede Gaza for many years. If true, it could be a win-win deal for Netanyahu, because he would kill two birds with one stone: Winning internal support and getting rid of Gaza in a long-term deal.
Iran, on the other hand, sought to send an unusual message to the Israeli government. It emphasized that Hamas, Qassam Brigades and Islamic Jihad possess missiles that can hit Tel Aviv. This annoyed and embarrassed the Israeli government, as it had to shift its meeting venues to the backyard bunkers.
Interestingly, the Iranian message came after Israel attacked the military Yarmok factory in Sudan.
To embarrass Egypt, Iran tried to portray itself as a country that supports resistance and Palestinian people's rights and asked Egypt to allow the Iranian foreign minister to pay a visit to Gaza through Rafah. The Egyptian president rejected the Iranian demand saying it would harm Palestinian interests and stoke the situation.
Turkey was not behind. Prime Minister Erdogan brought his liaison officer with Hamas to Cairo to try to control the situation in Gaza before the Israeli invasion. Turkey sought to prevent Iran from igniting a war in Gaza aimed at deflecting world attention from the crisis in Syria. Ankara had to negotiate with Israel to ensure the exit of Ismail Haniyeh to Al-Areesh town secretly. Haniyeh was in the Tunisian Ministry for Foreign Affairs to initial a cease-fire between Hamas and Israel.
Interestingly, Muslim brothers in Egypt had taken to the street during the first Israeli attack in 2008 to protest Mubarak's conduct. They called on the government to abrogate the Camp David accords, support Hamas and open the crossing. The irony is that Egypt under the Brothers' rule did not do anything besides condemnation and withdrawing its ambassador. This raises the question about the difference between the current and the Mubarak regime.
US President Barack Obama turned his back on the Middle East, according to Dennis Ross. This in fact granted Turkey and other regional players the chance to take part in managing the region. President Muhammad Mursi was anxiously waiting for a call from Obama to come to an understanding that Hamas will stop firing missiles in exchange for an assurance of no invasion from Israel. And yet there is no guarantee that the cease-fire will hold unless Hamas caves in to Israeli dictates. Perhaps Obama wanted Hamas to hit the heart of Tel Aviv to send a message to the Israeli government concerning Iranian missiles. And through the bombardments and missile launches, Obama wanted Israel to foresee the consequences of attacking Iran because Iranian reaction would be severe than that of Hamas. Thus, the Brothers' hidden objectives were exposed.
Iran showed that it was looking for friction with Israel to push the region to war. Iran's objective was to grant President Assad the time and capability to crush the revolution in a way that may reinforce Iran's influence in the region.
In fact, Iran and Israel had the same objective of causing instability in Jordan as Tel Aviv wants to solve the Palestinian problem at the expense of Amman. For this scenario to materializes, Amman needs to reach a level whereby it will have no option but to accept a regional solution. In case Jordan descends into chaos, Iran can guarantee that there will be no military intervention in Syria through Jordan. In addition, Iran tries to create chaos near Saudi borders. In fact, some Shiite forces with close links to Iran accuse Jordan of playing a role in Bahrain against the wishes and aspirations of the Shiites of Bahrain. Against this backdrop, the Bahraini Parliament expressed gratitude to Jordan when it called for supporting Jordan financially.
The conditions placed by Israel were met with similar conditions placed by Hamas, a situation that embarrassed Netanyahu. Even though there is evidence that a deal between Hamas and Israel that envisaged a 20-year lull in hostilities was reached, this long-term agreement will create the condition for a kind of association between Gaza and Egypt and the transfer of Palestinians to Sinai and Jordan.
Interestingly, Hamas has demonstrated some military prowess. It managed to fire some 1039 missiles to kill 7 Israelis, to hit one F16, and to force Israel to call the reverse. The missiles hit the targets according to Salah Bardawil, a senior Hamas leader.
Iranian media also distorted the Saudi position on the war. There was a futile attempt to pass on the buck to the Arab countries. As we all noticed, the war and the aggression was part of an Iranian and Israeli scheme. What took place was much bigger than attack on Hamas and fits into a regional scheme linked to Iran, Israel and the Muslim Brotherhood.
