Bibi no longer vote magnet

Bibi no longer vote magnet

Bibi no longer vote magnet
On Monday, the 19th Knesset voted to dissolve itself, less than two years after its election. For many of its members it was a sad day, a kind of political hara-kiri. They have no chance of re-election. Some of them are so forgettable, that I do not recognize their names or faces.
The day after, a political bomb exploded on the TV news. Channel 10 published the results of a quick public opinion poll by a respected pollster. They were amazing. The first result was that the Labor Party, after its union with Tzipi Livni's “the Movement,” will be the largest party in the next Knesset. Israelis gasped. What? Labor? A party seen by many as clinically dead. Of course, this is only the first of hundreds of polls to come before the Election Day, March 17, 2015. Yet the results had their impact. A second result was that Likud, in second place, would get exactly the same number of seats whether led by Benjamin Netanyahu or by his putative challenger, Gideon Sa’ar, an unglamorous party functionary. As interior minister, he excelled mainly in persecuting African asylum-seekers.
Is it possible? Netanyahu the Great, the “King Bibi” of Time magazine, no longer a vote magnet?
Ya’ir Lapid, the hero of the last elections, shrunk to half his size. But the real sensation of the poll was something else: Though Netanyahu still headed the list of preferred candidates for premiership, Yitzhak Herzog, the leader of Labor, came so close as to make no difference. Only a month ago, such a result would have appeared a hilarious hoax. At that time, Netanyahu had an unassailable lead, towering over all the dwarfs around. Conventional wisdom had it that “there is no one else.”
Now there is. Herzog! Herzog?
Herzog is the German word for duke. Yitzhak, commonly called Buji is indeed of aristocratic origin. His grandfather, Yitzhak Herzog, was the chief rabbi of Ireland. He had such a good reputation that he was called in the 30s to become the Ashkenazi chief rabbi of Palestine. He was considered (comparatively) liberal.
His son, Chaim, studied in England, excelled as a boxer and joined the British army in World War II. He was serving as an intelligence officer in Egypt when he met Susan Ambash, the daughter of a rich local Jewish family. The two Ambash girls were sent on Saturdays to the synagogue to fetch Jewish officers and bring them home for the Shabbat meal. On one Shabbat they caught two — one Chaim Herzog and one Aubrey (Abba) Eban. They married them.
In the 1948 war, Chaim Herzog joined the new Israeli Army as an intelligence officer, eventually becoming a general and chief of army intelligence. On leaving the army he founded what became the largest and richest law firm in the country. But his real days of glory came on the eve of the Six-day War. For three weeks, Israel fell victim to an attack of acute anxiety. Some spoke of the coming Second Holocaust. During that period, Gen. Herzog had a daily program on the radio and succeeded in soothing the public mind with his sober, sensible analysis, neither belittling nor exaggerating the danger ahead.
The people rewarded him with the presidency of the state. In this post, he was more British than Israeli. An example: At a time when I was boycotted by all the heads of the establishment, I was surprised by an invitation to a private dinner with him at the presidential residence. We had a pleasant talk, without any particular subject. He just wanted to get to know me.
I used the opportunity to plead for his intervention in the security arrangements at Ben Gurion airport, where Arab citizens were (and are) routinely singled out and searched in a humiliating manner. (He promised, but nothing much came of it.)
Yitzhak Herzog also served in army intelligence before he was appointed Cabinet secretary. Joining the Labor party, like his father, he became a member of the Knesset and minister in several minor ministries. Slightly built, blue eyed, with a fair complexion, Herzog, 54, looks more British than Israeli. He speaks softly, expresses himself in a moderate way and has no enemies. He is the very opposite of the typical Israeli politician. He surprised everybody when he beat one of these for the chairmanship of the Labor Party. Assuming the party leadership, Herzog lost no time in declaring himself a candidate for prime minister. This was generally met with a tolerant smile. Now, for the first time, this seems just possible. Not likely, by any means. But the impossible has become possible. The unthinkable, thinkable. This in itself is a revolution.
During the last years, Israeli media have been obsessed with the idea that “Israel is moving to the right.” That Netanyahu, bad as he is, is preferable to those who will inevitably succeed him — outright fascists, warmongers, Arab-eaters. It was almost fashionable to declare that the Left is finished, dead, deceased. Among commentators, it has become de rigeur, especially among leftists, to heap scorn on the Left and the remaining leftists. Poor guys (and gals, of course). Can’t see what’s going on. Harbor illusions. Whistling in the gathering darkness. And suddenly there is a chance — a remote chance, but a chance nevertheless — for the Left to regain power. Why? What has happened?
The easiest explanation is that people just got fed up with “Bibi.” Netanyahu is a person it is easy to get fed up with. In fact, it has happened to him before. His wife, Sarah'le, who is universally disliked, does not help. But, I believe, it goes much deeper. The poll shows that the Likud will not fare better with another chief candidate. Has the Likud lost its touch?
Two factors have contributed to this:
First, Moshe Kahlon. A former typical Likud stalwart, popular among his peers, he suddenly left his party. No reason given. As minister of communications, a very minor ministry, Kahlon had become immensely popular. He took on the tycoons of the mobile phone industry, broke their monopoly, instituted competition and cut prices by half. He became a hero. Now Kahlon, two months younger than Herzog, has announced that he is creating a new party. It is to be called “Kulanu” (“We All”). Though it still has no candidates, it already emerges in the poll with 10 seats — mostly supported by former Likud voters.
The second reason: Bennett’s extreme right-wing religious-nationalist (some say fascist) “Jewish Home” party is gaining strength — also gaining votes from Likud. Naftali Bennett, smooth, amiable, with the smallest kippah on earth on his head, is appealing to secular voters too.
Traditionally, the Orthodox parties hold the key. Since they care neither for Left or Right and are beholden to no one but themselves, they can choose. For a long time, they were the allies of Labor. For the last few decades, they were automatic allies of the Right. After the last elections, Netanyahu dropped them for the ultra-secular Lapid. Now they are ready for revenge. Since Herzog is the grandson of a chief Rabbi, he is kosher.
Herzog won his first success of the current campaign by forming a common list with Tzipi Livni. It is now up to him to keep up the momentum and make alliances with – possibly — Lapid, Kahlon and Meretz. If successful in the elections, he must stretch out his hands to the Orthodox and the Arabs.

The writer is an Israeli writer and former member of Knesset.
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