Why Africa needs fossil fuels

Why Africa needs fossil fuels

Why Africa needs fossil fuels
Africa is the world’s most “renewable” continent when it comes to energy. In the rich world, renewables account for less than a tenth of total energy supplies. The 900 million people of Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa) get 80 percent of their energy from renewables.
All this is not because Africa is green, but because it is poor. Some 2 percent of the continent’s energy needs are met by hydro-electricity, and 78 percent by humanity’s oldest “renewable” fuel: Wood. This leads to heavy deforestation and lethal indoor air pollution, which kills 1.3 million people each year.
What Africa needs, according to many activists, is to be dotted with solar panels and wind turbines. But when US President Barack Obama hosted a summit of African leaders in 2014, most said they wanted more fossil fuels.
Europe and North America became rich thanks to cheap, plentiful power. In 1800, 94 percent of all global energy came from renewables, almost all of it wood and plant material. In 1900, renewables provided 41 percent of all energy; even at the end of WWII, renewables still provided 30 percent of global energy. Since 1971, the share of renewables has bottomed out, standing at around 13.5 percent today. Almost all of this is wood, with just 0.5 percent from solar and wind.
The International Energy Agency estimates that if all countries fulfill the pledges made at the Paris climate change conference last month, the proportion of renewables could increase slightly in the next 25 years, to 18.7 percent. In the IEA’s more likely scenario, the share will reach just 15.4 percent.
Most of that “renewable” energy will still come from crop residue, cow manure, wood, and biofuels. While a solar panel can provide energy for a light bulb and a charge for a cell phone, it does little to help run stoves to avoid indoor air pollution or fridges to keep vaccines and food fresh, much less power agriculture and industry. By 2040, in the IEA’s optimistic scenario, solar power in Sub-Saharan Africa will produce 14kWh per person per year, less than what is needed to keep a single two-watt LED permanently lit. The IEA also estimates that renewable power will still cost more, on average, than any other source — oil, gas, nuclear, coal, or hydro, even with a carbon tax.
Few in the rich world would switch to renewables without heavy subsidies, and certainly no one would cut off their connection to the mostly fossil-fuel-powered grid that provides stable power on cloudy days and at night (another form of subsidy). Yet western activists seem to believe that the world’s worst-off people should be satisfied with inadequate and irregular electricity supplies.
In its recent Africa Energy Outlook, the IEA estimates that Africa’s energy consumption will increase by 80 percent by 2040; but, with the continent’s population almost doubling, less energy per person will be available. Although nearly one billion additional people will gain access to electricity by 2040, 530 million will still be cut off.
But the IEA outlines another possible future — what it calls the “African Century” — in which Africa’s governments and donors invest an extra $450 billion in energy. This would sharply increase the use of fossil fuels, reduce much of the most polluting renewables, and provide energy access to 230 million more people. Providing more — and more reliable — power to almost two billion people will increase GDP by 30 percent in 2040. Each person on the continent will be almost $1,000 better off every year. In western countries, environmental campaigners would focus on the downside and ask why anyone would want to increase CO₂ and air pollution. But let’s look at the costs and benefits.
The almost four billion extra tons of CO₂ emitted over the next 25 years would cause about $140 billion in damage from global warming, using the US official (though, likely somewhat exaggerated) social cost figure. The increase in coal use would lead to more air pollution, costing about $30 billion during this period.
At the same time, Africa would become almost $7 trillion richer. Indoor air pollution would essentially be eliminated for about 150 million more people, with social benefits worth nearly $500 billion. And power would reach 230 million extra people, generating benefits worth $1.2 trillion.
In other words, the total costs of the “African Century,” including climate- and health-related costs, would amount to $170 billion. The total benefits, at $8.4 trillion, would be almost 50 times higher.
The same general argument probably holds for India and other developing countries. In wealthy countries, campaigners emphasize that a ton of CO2 could cost some $50 and should be taxed to reduce emissions. But for Africa, the economic, social, and environmental benefits of more energy and higher CO2 run to more than $2,000 per ton. Focusing on the $50 in cost and ignoring the $2,000 in benefits is willful blindness.
One day, innovation could drive down the price of future green energy to the point that it lifts people out of poverty more effectively than fossil fuels do. Globally, we should invest much more in such innovation. But global warming will not be fixed by hypocritically closing a path out of poverty to the world’s poor.

©Project Syndicate
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