A dead lion is better than an injured one
THE Assad regime might have two, three or six more months to live. Nobody can give an exact date to its demise. However, two facts remain to be solid: The first is that the regime will definitely fall but it is just a matter of time and the second is that the regime and its allies are capable of inflicting harm on both the Syrian people and the regime itself during its remaining time in power. Sabotage is the speciality of the regime and the skill that has earned it its reputation.
The recent developments, including setbacks that have been witnessed by the freedom fighters and the expansion of the war by the regime into Lebanon through kidnapping and explosions, make it imperative to arm the freedom fighters with qualitative weapons. Though the regime started bombing civilian areas few months back — which rarely happens in civil wars — the revolutionaries only managed to shoot down a single fighter and hold captive an army commander. This does not mean that they are not good fighters or that they are few in number but reflects their inability to obtain advanced weaponry to the army and its tanks. The war is not equal. The equation will therefore continue. The ailing regime will definitely fall but until then, it is capable of inflicting a lot of damage.
We know that there are many reasons for freedom fighters not having access to sophisticated weaponry. The most important of these is the chaos within the camp of the fighters themselves and their multi-political identities. The Israelis and their allies will not supply the rebels with anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons for fear that these weapons may end up being used against Israel itself. The example of the Steinger rockets given to the Afghan mujahideen that ended up in the hands of rebels in Pakistan is still vivid in many minds. These rockets, which were found buried in Saudi Arabia about 10 years ago, suddenly surfaced during a military parade in Qatar. Like the Israelis, the Turks also have similar fears. They fear that these weapons might fall into the hands of the rebels of the leftist and separatist Kurdish Labor Party which has carried out a number of operations on Turkish soil.
Of course most of the fears were caused by the simple fact that a number of extremist groups have entered Syria. The regime itself, which sponsored Al-Qaeda during the crisis in Iraq, may well have opened the door for terrorists to enter the country. This move would ascertain the claim by the regime that freedom fighters liaised with Al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations and at the same time scare the West with the prospect of Islamic rule as a substitute to the Assad regime in Syria.
Such fears have been expressed by all the countries of the region and not just Israel and Turkey. The strategy of Syria, Iran and Russia focused on spreading the fear that the substitute for the Assad regime would only be the terrorist groups.
Despite the reasonable premise of these fears, the equation remains. The regime is slowly falling, the country disintegrating and extremist groups are becoming champions growing over time at the expense of the Syrian national powers who have been fighting Assad for a year and a half.
Depriving the freedom fighters from advanced weapons because of fears that these weapons might end up in the hands of terrorists is a ridiculous excuse. There are still technical solutions that make it easy to hand over the weapons to the opposition forces with very little risk of them going in the wrong direction.
Allowing the regime to live for more months will enable it to commit more massacres. Its allies will also commit atrocities in Lebanon and elsewhere. The region will be subjected to more chaos and threat. The regime has actually vowed to do this against its foes in and outside the country.
With the inability of the big countries, including Turkey, to establish a no-fly-zone over Syria in an apparent attempt to avoid confrontations with Russia, there is no way out of this complicated situation except through supporting the freedom fighters to reduce the remaining months of bloodbath and eradicate the source of trouble which is the Damascus regime.
With the regime falling, there will be no justification for confrontation with Russia. Iran will accept dealing with the new situation. The differences would remain only on how the new Syria would be managed. The first priority is to arm the freedom fighters so as to be able to neutralize the regime’s air fighters and tanks. If this were to have been done, the equation might have changed a month ago when the building of the national security guards in the heart of Damascus was bombed. The freedom fighters held a number of districts in Damascus but had to evacuate them under heavy air strikes by helicopters and shelling by tanks and guns. The rebels remained defending such areas with primitive weapons.
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