Iran’s worst days are ahead
CONTRARY to statements made by top Iranian leaders, the economic situation has worsened due to the Western economic sanctions imposed on Iran as a result of the country's defiance on nuclear issue. The forced devaluation of Iran's national currency — the rial — has caused high inflation that has aggravated the miseries of the people. The rial suffered a 40 percent drop in its value in the current month. Furthermore, the Iranian banks will soon face the problem of printing enough money because three European companies — that helped in printing Iranian currency — have stopped working for the Iranians.
Obviously, the international effort is focused on the currency itself to deprive the regime from any room of maneuverability. The United Against Nuclear Iran organization has launched a campaign to target Iranian riyal and to limit the ability of the Iranian regime of any short-term strategy to offset the impact of sanctions. According to its chief executive Mark Wallace, "By manipulating and increasing the printing volume of the rial, the regime can bolster its floundering currency and mask the disastrous impact of its political decisions, economic mismanagement and isolation." Seen in this way, the decision of the three European companies to stop working for Iranian banks will be detrimental to the regime's ability to continue with its delaying tactics. Economic experts argue that the inability of the Iranian banks to supply enough money to outpace the currency declining value would speed up a stinging economic crisis.
While the weakened Iranian economy will hit the ability of Tehran to support the regime in Syria, it will at the same time spark internal protests in Tehran. The West-led sanctions and the strategy to prevent the Iranians from dealing effectively with hyperinflation are putting hundreds of thousands of Iranian lives at risk. Although the imposed sanctions do not target ordinary Iranians, sanctions are affecting the deliveries of medicine thus hitting hard the sick persons. Ban Ki-moon (the United Nations Secretary-General) had warned that "The sanctions imposed on the Islamic Republic of Iran have had significant effects on the general population, including an escalation in inflation, a rise in commodities and energy costs, an increase in the rate of unemployment and a shortage of necessary items, including medicine."
It remains to be seen whether the sanctions target Iranian people. But, the continuation of sanctions and the limited tolerance of Iranian people to put up with that may push the regime to the brink.
The humanitarian argument against sanctions does not seem to affect the positions of the West. British Prime Minister David Cameron said that the international community must demonstrate courage and allow sanctions to work. At a meeting of EU ministers in Luxembourg last Monday, a further tightening of financial and trade sanctions was discussed. Europeans and Americans seek to affect Iran's decision-making with regard to the nuclear program without resorting to a military strike. You will hardly find a top official in either Europe or America who would support a military strike for the time being.
They all hope that the continuous isolation of Iran will be a game changer. "The Iranian regime is under unprecedented pressure and faces an acute dilemma. They are leading their people to global isolation and an economic collapse. And they know it," according to David Cameron.
Given the deteriorating economic situation and the powerlessness of the regime to make a difference, the regime will have a difficult time to pretend that nothing has happened. It cannot defend or supply the Syrian regime with arms when it has failed to meet the basic needs of its own people as inflation has reached its highest levels in the history of the country.
The impact of sanctions is real and felt by ordinary people throughout Iran. For this reason, the Israeli government felt confident enough to call early elections — to be held in three months — and put off the military option until then. In the next six months Iran will have to take an action if the regime wishes to survive internal crisis.
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