Iran may be pushing to nuke threshold

A “big and unforgivable” sin. A Western falsehood. An attempt to deprive developing nations of peaceful nuclear technology.
That’s how Iran’s supreme leader addresses allegations that Tehran seeks atomic weapons.
Iran’s denials can carry a distinctly hollow ring among its foes as the UN nuclear watchdog piles on worries: Complaining about limits on inspection access and reporting that Tehran is expanding its nuclear fuel labs in a virtually attack-proof underground site.
They are enriching uranium far beyond what’s needed for their lone energy reactor and preventing inspection, adding to the urgency while repeatedly predicting Israel will be destroyed and actively supporting militancy in the region. But, as Israel increasingly weighs the option of a military strike, Western leaders wary of another Middle East conflict may have to pay closer attention to the claims by Ali Khamenei and others. Quite possibly, they may be telling the truth. Or at least to a point.
Iran could be shaping its nuclear ambitions after Japan, which has the full scope of nuclear technology — including the presumed ability to produce warhead-grade material — but has stopped short of actually producing a weapon. It creates, in effect, a de facto nuclear power with all the parts but just not pieced together.
More than two years ago, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani essentially embraced Tokyo’s nuclear model during a visit to Japan that included a stop in Nagasaki, of the two cities destroyed by American atomic bombs World War II.
Larijani met with Japanese officials and praised the country’s nuclear program as a symbol of a third path that dates back to the 1970s, when then Japanese Prime Minister Tsutomu Hata told reporters that Japan “certainly” could possess nuclear arms “but has not made them.”
The major difference, however, is Israel and other US allies, such as Saudi Arabia. They would have to adapt to a huge balance-of-power shift with Iran on the doorstep of having nuclear arms.
Following Japan’s path would allow Iran to push their nuclear technology to the limit while being able to claim it has adhered to its international pledge not to develop a bomb. Yoel Guzansky, an Iranian affairs expert for Israel’s Institute of National Security Studies, believes Iran could be adopting a Japan-style policy to reach a “nuclear threshold.”
“Israeli can’t live with the uncertainty of a nuclear threshold state,” he said. “Iran could push over (to weapons capability) at any given moment.”
The world, however, has absorbed the game-changing nuclear arms development of states such as China and Pakistan. Israel, too, is believed to have a nuclear arsenal although officials neither confirm nor deny its existence.
This is where Iran might seek seams in the unity of the West and its allies: Could some live with an almost-armed Iran rather than risk a war that could send oil prices skyrocketing and risk spilling conflict across the region?
A report Thursday by the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency concluded that Iran now has 1,000 uranium-enrichment centrifuges at the subterranean Fordo site south of Tehran — more than double the number since May. Fordo is still small compared with Iran’s main enrichment facility, but it is considered to have more advanced equipment and is protected under 90 meters (300 feet) of mountain rock.
The report also said Iran has effectively shut down inspections of a separate site — the Parchin military complex — suspected of being used for nuclear weapons-related experiments, by shrouding it from spy satellite view with a covering.
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who attended the Tehran conference,urged Iranian officials to “take concrete steps to build international confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear program.” Ban’s team in Tehran included Jeffrey Feltman, a former top US State Department official who now works at the UN.

n THE ASSOCIATED PRES