Muslim vote unlikely to play decisive role in Gujarat polls

Within a few weeks from now, it will be clear whether Gujarat politics is headed for a new phase. Interestingly, Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi is giving importance to a new political strategy, the state’s development under his government. At the outset, this suggests that he has decided not to openly use the communal anti-Muslim card he exploited extensively particularly during the preceding two assembly elections in Gujarat held in 2002 and 2007.
Besides, speculations are being aired about Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) being extra concerned to attract Muslim votes in Gujarat polls. The party may even field a few Muslim candidates for the purpose. The BJP has not had a single Muslim legislator in Gujarat assembly since Modi has been state chief minister. How seriously should hype raised about BJP trying to attract Muslim votes in Gujarat be taken? As of now, it would be best to consider this only as a cosmetic show being deliberately staged to convince rest of India about BJP’s secular intentions and “credibility” of the so-called “secular” mask donned by Modi.
It may be noted that Samajwadi Party (SP) leader Mulayam Singh Yadav is also keen on trying his luck in attracting Gujarati Muslim voters to his party. His party failed to create any impact on Gujarat political stage during the assembly elections twice earlier. Nevertheless, Singh is hopeful that his party’s success in Uttar Pradesh assembly polls will help it in Gujarat elections.
Does Muslim vote really have any relevance in Gujarat? Can it be labeled as significant enough to turn political tide against the BJP, if the SP succeeds in winning the Muslim vote? Or can it help the Congress in pushing the BJP out of power in Gujarat? With respect to Mulayam Singh’s political ambitions, it would not be wrong to say that the SP’s main political base is confined to UP. This political reality is reflected by this party’s presence in Parliament. All 22 members of the SP in present Lok Sabha (Lower House) are from UP. The same is true in Rajya Sabha (Upper House), where 9 members of the SP are from UP.
Mulayam Singh may be keen to use his political campaign in Gujarat to help him on national stage in the forthcoming parliamentary polls. Irrespective of whether he attracts Muslim votes or not, he is hopeful of gaining substantial publicity through his campaign. If this is the case, this implies that he is well aware of there being limited prospects of his gaining any political ground in Gujarat.
The BJP and Congress are also strongly conscious of limited potential of the Muslim vote in Gujarat. This is primarily due to two reasons. Muslims constitute less than 10 percent of the state population. Secondly, Gujarat has been a battleground of only two parties, the BJP and Congress. The regional parties have not risen in Gujarat in the manner they have in UP. If Gujarat had been home to at least half a dozen parties, regional as well as national, prospects of Muslim votes playing a decisive role would have been greater as had been the case in UP assembly elections.
Despite these odds, even if Mulayam Singh succeeds in attracting Muslim votes, indirectly he would help the BJP gain at the expense of Congress’ political loss. Notwithstanding BJP attempts to display a “secular” image by circulating “news” of there being “strong” prospects of it fielding a few Muslim candidates, there is no denying that this strategy is aimed at improving its political image and also chances of faring well in forthcoming parliamentary polls. This truth is not hidden from Muslims of Gujarat. Besides, however hard the various parties try their luck in winning the Muslim vote in Gujarat, statistically it is not expected to have any decisive impact on the state’s assembly elections.
The Congress has been out of power in Gujarat since 1995. In the present 182-member state assembly, 121 are from the BJP, 55 from the Congress and six members represent either Nationalist Congress Party, Janata Dal-United or are independents. The state has been ruled by the BJP with Modi as chief minister over the past decade. During its campaign, the Congress is focusing on deflating claims made by Modi about development in Gujarat under his government. It is as yet too early to be over-optimistic about Congress winning in Gujarat.
Prospects of Modi returning to power cannot be ruled out. However, Modi’s victory may spell danger for the BJP from several angles. Success in Gujarat is likely to enhance Modi’s demand for being projected as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate. This may lead to a split in the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) as secular parties in this group are strongly against Modi being allowed to take centerstage. They fear losing votes of Muslims and non-Muslim secular Indians in their respective regions. Besides, Modi’s bid for national politics may weaken political hold of the BJP in Gujarat in subsequent assembly elections. Therefore, Muslim vote is not expected to play a decisive role in Gujarat elections, but its importance is likely to increase if Modi decides to step on to the national political stage. The parties keen to display their secular image by highlighting Modi’s communal background may then be expected to go overboard for attracting Muslim votes!

— Nilofar Suhrawardy is an Indian freelance journalist who has written extensively for national newspapers.