Regional fallout of Syrian war
According to sources close the Syrian president, Bashar Assad has realized that the game is over for him and believes that supporters of his regime, namely China, Russia and Iran are working on a contingency plan.
Assad has come to the conclusion that these countries are now more interested in securing their interests in Syria for the future rather than helping Assad survive the crisis.
At the very least, they want to make sure that Syria will not be handed over to Turkey and its proxies in the region on a silver platter.
The plan is, therefore, to have the Syrian president give up on the Syrian Army in favor of an elitist sectarian army under the name of the Syrian Defense Army. This new army will be supported by Hezbollah and the Jerusalem Squad and will receive volunteers from Iran. Indeed, Tehran is trying to project what has been taking place in Syria as a sectarian war.
For Iran, the loss of Assad is not necessarily a loss for Iran. Seen in this light, Iranians have kept supporting Syria with operational plans and economic aid. Iran aims to create a situation of anarchy in the region. According to some reports, Damascus has used biological and chemical weapons manufactured in Iran.
Moreover, some units that belong to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard are working in Amil Mountain, an area under the control of Hezbollah, to produce germ weapons.
Two people are in charge of this process: Brig. Abu Elhassan Moatamadi and his assistant, Col. Ehsan Al-Mosawi. Col. Abdeljabar Al-Eqedidi, an Iraqi expert in germs weapon, was asked to mobilize Lebanon to work on the issue. When he resisted, he was made to choose between life and death. This team provides Syria with tools of murder and destruction.
A secondary aim of the plan is to cause an internal mayhem in a post-Assad Syria by creating conditions conducive for sectarian strife. This is in order to create the impression that the worst is yet to come. At the same time, the Nusra Front is becoming more radicalized in order to reinforce the Iranian-Alawite formula in Syria.
Additionally, the scheme aims to stir sedition and tension in neighboring countries. Iran and Iraq are planning this by pumping millions of dollars into Jordan and by exploiting the needs of the poor and pushing them to get involved in popular protests.
It is a well-known fact that Hezbollah managed to infiltrate Hamas in the past, which is active in Jordan within the context of the Muslim Brotherhood. Perhaps we will see a verbal escalation in the discourse of the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan in the days to come.
The Iranian ambassador in Amman is working overtime to recruit activists by offering monetary compensation to stir up tribal forces.
Assad has sent a strong message of warning to Jordan that his country will not sit by idly while the American administration is in the process of sending 200 soldiers to Jordan.
From early on, Tehran supported the Nusra Front in Syria to merge with Al-Qaeda in order to create the impression that there is a plot by Al-Qaeda to control both Syria and Iraq. However, the ulterior objective is to grant the embattled Syrian president the pretext to confront terrorist extremism, and that is why Sheikh Butti was murdered.
All this aims to project the notion that Syria was subject to a sectarian war.
The leader of the Syrian Free Army, Riyad Al-Assad, is part of the security arrangement made by the Nusra Front and the Iranian-Syrian intelligence. For this reason, Washington put the Nusra Front on the terrorist list.
Iran is expected to witness more suicide operations to kill a number of Shiite and Sunni figures. Indeed, neighboring countries will perhaps witness explosions near Western missions. CIA Director John Brennan summarized the situation in Syria by saying: “I feel concerned that Syria is disintegrating in a way that enables groups such as the Nusra Front to get stronger because it has internal and external agendas.” It would be of greater concern if Nusra is also penetrated by Iran and Syria.
Assad will not voluntarily give up power. Iran, Hezbollah and the Al-Maliki government will have no option but to penetrate Assad’s regime, fragment the opposition, weaken the free army and tamper with regional security, particularly in neighboring states. This could be confronted only by finding a harmonious regional environment to pre-empt the attempt to destabilize the region.
The chances of descending into civil war can be minimized if the balance of power is tipped in the favor of the armed opposition. In addition to this, there is a need for establishing a presidential council, a Cabinet with a six-month transition provided that there is regional and international support for such a move. Syrians in this case may opt for peace, as their culture is one of co-existence.
The American Ambassador to Syria, Robert Ford, told a Senate committee on Thursday that it is vital that the United States supports “moderate” Syrian fighters battling extremists who are also opposed to Bashar Assad’s regime.
This is a critical period indeed. Sources close to Assad said that he lacks the enthusiasm to stay on any longer. Some leaders in the military institution are convinced that he is in the process of leaving. Yet his staying or leaving is in the hands of Iran and Hezbollah. That said, the support that could be given to the opposition may accelerate his demise, as many are looking forward to a post-Assad Syria, free of Iranian interference and anarchy.