A new twist in Syrian conflict

If the possible use of chemical weapons in Syria was a “game-changer” in the view of US President Barack Obama, then this week’s Israeli bombardment of targets in Damascus is equally a major change in the rules of the game that threatens to take the crisis across borders. It was the third Israeli airstrike against Syrian positions since the beginning of the year. But this time the raids, allegedly targeting Iranian arms heading to Hezbollah, are seen a qualitative development in the three-year Syrian crisis.
The big question now is how will the beleaguered Syrian regime and its Hezbollah and Iranian allies respond? President Assad has warned that his country will retaliate immediately if new Israeli attacks are carried out.
It is unlikely that Israel will look the other way if the Syrian regime attempts to dispatch missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon or if chemical weapons fall into the wrong hands.
The Israeli raids have added a new dimension to the Syrian crisis. The US and its Western allies have been discussing the possibility of arming the Syrian fighters when Israel made its move. There are many questions about the nature of Israeli targets. One raid is said to have targeted weapon depots of Syria’s elite 105 Brigade responsible for the protection of Damascus. The airstrikes will certainly weaken President Assad’s defenses in the capital as fighting between the army and the fighters rages on in many parts of the city. It is ironic that the Israeli raid will be seen as a boost to the fighters, including Jihadists who view Israel as an enemy. Damascus has said that the attack exposes a sinister relationship between Israel and “terrorist” groups fighting the regime.
The timing of the raids is important as well. They came in the wake of a number of key developments in the bitter Syrian civil war which has claimed over 70,000 lives. Last week Hezbollah militia crossed Lebanon’s northern borders into Syria and attacked fighter-held towns in Al Qussair, not far from Homs. Hezbollah’s involvement in the war alongside government forces reflects renewed commitment by the group and Iran to stand by the Assad regime. It coincided with Israeli and US accusations that chemical weapons were used in the Syrian conflict.
It also happened as the special UN/Arab League envoy Lakhdar Brahimi announced that he was quitting his mission, thus weakening the possibility of a political breakthrough to end the conflict. Russia has warned the West not to politicize the chemical weapons issue.
And the Israeli strikes followed meetings in Washington between President Obama and a number of Arab leaders, including the Qatari emir who has urged the US to intervene in Syria. Some Arab observers believe that the Syrian Army has managed to turn things around on the ground in the north and south of the country. There are fears in some Arab capitals that President Assad might prevail in this bloody conflict.
In addition the Iranian role in Syria became visibly stronger in the past few weeks. Tehran has made it clear that it will not allow the Assad regime to fall. Widening the scope of the conflict and raising the stakes, especially by getting Hezbollah involved, is one possible scenario. Israel has been threatening to launch airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities for months, but there are fears that Tehran will use Hezbollah to retaliate.
So was the Israeli strike limited to destroying missiles on their way to Lebanon, or was it meant to shake the Assad regime and give the fighters a needed boost? It is difficult to say. But now all eyes are on Damascus and what its response to this could be.
Israel is not taking any chances. It has heightened military readiness in the north and along its borders with Lebanon. Certainly if Assad and the Iranians are about to respond it is likely that the retaliation will come from the Lebanese side, if not directly, such as firing missiles, then indirectly by launching commando operations across the borders.
Meanwhile, the Israeli strike has flustered Assad’s Arab opponents. The Arab League has condemned the aggression but this hardly changes the position of the anti-Assad axis extending from Turkey to Qatar. The situation will get more complicated if Damascus chooses to respond to the Israeli attack. This will be a major game changer if there was ever one.
But the regime is also its own enemy. Reports of massacres against Sunnis in Banias and Al-Baida in the northwestern part of the country, carried out by Alawite loyalists, have underlined the sectarian factor in the Syrian crisis. The massacres have prompted thousands of civilians to flee their villages for fear of their lives. The massacres underscored the bloody nature of the regime and its willingness to resort to sectarian killings in order to survive.
In the absence of a political settlement the war in Syria has brought many foes together, some fighting the same enemy. The Israeli strikes are yet another strange twist in this intractable problem!

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