A waste of time!
Secretary of State John Kerry met with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov a few days ago, and the two sides agreed to convene an international conference to bring the ongoing fight in Syria to an end. It remains to be seen if this will ever produce an agreement to facilitate transition in Syria.
Two years have elapsed since President Bashar Assad started his bloody crackdown on his people. More than 80,000 died and recent reports show that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons, thus crossing Obama’s self-imposed “red line.” For many in the Arab world, the failure of the United States to demonstrate leadership has been a key factor that contributed to the worsening of the situation.
Things have changed a bit recently. Israel launched two airstrikes in three days aiming at weapons supposedly to be transferred to Hezbollah; the Syrian regime used chemical weapons against rebels; and the United States made it perfectly clear that it would seriously consider arming the rebels. The three developments put a huge pressure on Moscow to rethink its position or run the risk of being confronted by the United States and its allies. If anything, Moscow fears that a more active role assumed by the West would tip the balance of power in Syria and further emasculate the Assad regime.
It seems that the American administration reached a new conclusion concerning risks involved in taking a proactive step in the crisis. While a possible American interference is risky, so is inaction. After two years of the conflict, the American failure to make a difference cannot be more obvious. Two things are clear: First, leading from behind is not a recipe for success. Second, both Iran and Russia are in a better position to shape the future of Syria. In fact, the vacuum left by the absence of clear American leadership is being filled by Russia and Iran. For many observers, this “new” Middle East will be a war-prone zone and a threatening region for American interests.
It is not yet clear if such an agreement between the American and the Russia sides can create the dynamics for a peaceful transition. Take for instance the Syrian opposition. It remains fraught with internal problems and a lack of cohesiveness. The question then is whether America can help the opposition. Equally important, Assad is most likely to refuse to take part in a process that will accelerate his demise.
It is not as if Syria is quiet and that the situation can wait for all kinds of wheeling and dealing to take place. Every day people are getting killed and thousands are being made either refugees or are displaced.
Unsurprisingly, the American administration is not seen in this part of the world as determined to end the crisis especially when Obama’s “red lines” seem to have been crossed. Perhaps it is high time for the American administration to articulate a clear plan to stem violence in Syria. Otherwise, Iran, Hezbollah, and the Syrian regime will be emboldened to use more lethal weapons to win the struggle in Syria. In other words, inaction may encourage the Syrian regime and its allies in the region to take risky gambles that can change the Middle East.
Implicit in the use of chemical weapons is the intention to test Obama’s red lines. On this matter, the Syrian regime called Obama’s bluff and the latter is caught off-balance by the defiance of the Syrian regime. To say that the American credibility in the Middle East is at stake will be an understatement. In fact few, if any, still hope that the US will have the guts and put a clear price tag on what Assad has been doing.
So far, the American administration has not been effective in the crisis. On top of that, Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah are the players who call the shots. If this continues unchecked, “the axis of resistance” will be the magnet for other players in the Middle East. To avert this scenario, the US can still follow up on the idea of an international conference. And yet it needs to work on a parallel track to strengthen the rebels on the ground. For this reason, arming the rebels is a must because Russia and Iran have been supporting the regime in Syria. It is only then that an international conference can make the Russians and Iranians cave in. This may be the only track left for the US, so no more beating around the bush and no more wasting time.
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