Exclusive politics fuels Iraq unrest
Iraqi authorities must tackle underlying political issues to curb violence that has killed more than 600 people in May, and avoid approaching it as just a security problem, experts and officials say.
The government has failed to stem the spike in violence, which has killed more than 1,000 people in two months and comes amid widespread discontent among the Sunni minority and a series of long-running political disputes. Experts say the anger among Iraq’s Sunnis that exploded into protests last December is the main factor behind the surge in violence. Serious engagement with demonstrators is therefore a key part of any solution.
“The government should genuinely (take) steps toward the negotiation with the street, with the protesters,” Maria Fantappie, an Iraq analyst with the International Crisis Group said.
Instead, authorities have treated the unrest as a security issue, which has only helped fuel the cycle of violence, she added.
John Drake, an Iraq specialist with risk consulting firm AKE Group, agreed that more security forces operations and arrests would make things worse. “Engagement and dialogue would likely be the most effective way to tackle the violence,” he said.
But so far, Baghdad’s response has largely been limited to actions by security forces, a shakeup of senior officers, and announcing a series of vague new measures related to security.
Discontent has been growing among the Sunni minority, which ruled the country from its establishment after World War I until US-led forces toppled dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003, bringing the Shiite majority to power. Sunnis say the Shiite authorities have politically marginalized their community and targeted them with unwarranted arrests and spurious terrorism charges.
Crispin Hawes, the Middle East and North Africa director for the Eurasia Group consultancy, said Prime Minister Nuri Al-Maliki, a Shiite, is unlikely to make any sweeping concessions to Iraqi Sunnis.
Baghdad may “make marginal concessions to elements within the Sunni Arab political organizations,” which could have some impact on the security situation, he said. But Al-Maliki “clearly has no desire to make concessions in a way that would bring the Sunni Arab community back into the broader political environment in Iraq. He’s clearly taken the decision that he wants to exclude them,” he said.
