Hassan Rowhani’s surprise victory
It is too early to say if this week’s stunning victory by politically moderate cleric Hassan Rowhani in the Iranian presidential elections will have any drastic effect on the Islamic Republic’s regional and international policies. Certainly his triumph carries multiple messages, both domestically and to the outside world. The president-elect cannot be categorized as a reformer; the press likes to describe him a moderate conservative. But until two weeks ago no one thought that he had a chance to beat five hard-line candidates in the first round.
But he did. And unlike the 2009 elections, which were tainted amid accusations of fraud and vote rigging, Friday’s poll was free and reflected the will of the Iranian people. Millions of voters turned out to vote and Rowhani, the 65-year-old lawyer, academic and diplomat, won more than 50 percent of the vote.
The reformists had won the day, or so it seemed. Few days before the poll Rowhani got the endorsement of two potent symbols of the reformist camp: Former presidents Mohammad Khatemi and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani. This was a message that the Iranian people had sent to the country’s spiritual leader, the powerful Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Thus eight years of conservative and controversial rule under Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has come to an end. But will President-elect Rowhani be able to deliver on his campaign promises to ease Iran’s tensions with the West, end international sanctions, allow greater freedom of the press and reduce government interference in private lives? He had called for an “end to the era of extremism” and that delivered many Iranian voters who were afraid that the 2009 debacle will be repeated. Whether this new sense of pragmatism and moderation will replace years, if not decades, of hard-line rule, remains to be seen. Rowhani will face huge challenges both at home and in the region. For Iranians the most pressing issue today is the economy, suffering as a result of bad planning and years of Western sanctions. Abroad there are many issues to be resolved including finding a solution to the intractable nuclear program, relations with Iran’s Gulf neighbors and Tehran’s involvement in the Syrian crisis.
Sources close to Rowhani said that he wants to renew talks with the West over the nuclear program. Under President Ahmadinejad these talks had failed to resolve fundamental problems such as Iran’s insistence to continue with uranium enrichment and allowing international observers to inspect secret facilities. Washington and its allies expressed willingness to resume these talks, but Israel warned against “wishful thinking.” The biggest issue here is how much influence will the new president have over Iran’s foreign policy, which is usually determined by the country’s non-elected clergy. It is believed that despite Ahmadinejad’s close ties with the Supreme Leader, he had tried to distance the office of the presidency from Khamenei and the clergy during his second term with mixed results. He has paid dearly as a result, being rebuffed on more than one occasion by Khamenei. His own candidate for the presidency was forced to withdraw. But Ahmadinejad’s experience has underlined the need to make the president accountable to the people who elect him. This may help Rowhani, who is a veteran politician and diplomat with close ties to Khamenei, press for more freedom in handling foreign affairs.
This will be tested in August when Rowhani takes over. His call for talks on the nuclear program will show if he has the ability and the authority to alter Iran’s tough stance.
Another challenge for Rowhani will be to improve relations with the Gulf countries. Iran has been accused by its GCC neighbors of interfering in the internal affairs of Bahrain, Yemen and others. But it was important to note that King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia had sent a telegram to Rowhani congratulating him on his victory and praising “the statements in which you expressed how keen you are on cooperation and on improving the relations between our two brotherly nations.” But achieving this goal will not be easy. Iran’s involvement in Syria’s civil war and the recent incursion by Hezbollah to support the regime in its fight has increased the risk of an open sectarian confrontation that threatens the entire region.
His stand on Syria does not reflect a major departure from Tehran’s official policy. When asked to comment on the Syrian crisis, Rowhani told Press TV days before his victory that Syria remains an important regional issue and that it is one of the states in the [resistance] front against Israel. He added that “the Syrian government will remain in power until 2014 because it is a legal government, but after 2014, when it’s the time for election, we will completely support an indisputable, free and all-inclusive election.” Rowhani’s election will mark important changes in Iran and could soften its stand on regional issues. But it all depends on how much the president-elect will be able to disengage himself from the powerful control of the Supreme Leader and follow his own policy.
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