West gears up for Syria showdown

The coming hours will prove crucial in determining the nature of the American military response to last week’s chemical attack against rebel-held areas near Damascus in which at least 1,000 people, including children, perished.
The US administration has said that there was “very little doubt” that President Bashar Assad’s military forces had used chemical weapons against civilians and that a Syrian promise to allow United Nations inspectors access to the site was “too late to be credible”.
Britain and France have also confirmed that a chemical attack had taken place and that the most likely culprit was the regime. It was not the first time that chemical weapons were used in Syria. Last year US President Barack Obama had warned that the use of chemical weapons by Syrian government forces would be a “red line”.
Still Washington did little in response to allegations that such weapons were used in Aleppo few months ago. Last week’s attack took place as UN inspectors were in Damascus to investigate previous incidents. Under pressure from its allies, Russia and Iran, Syria agreed on Sunday to allow access to UN experts to last week’s sites, most of which are in rebel hands.
It is not clear as to why the Syrian regime would use chemical weapons, at such a large scale, at this point and when UN investigators were in the country. But the scale of the attack and the high number of casualties has put pressure on the Obama administration to take action. The attack was a game changer and it ended months of indecisive western policy toward the Syrian crisis, which had claimed more than 100,000 lives in almost three years.
President Obama is yet to decide on the shape and duration of the US military strike. The US has moved naval destroyers close to Syrian shores, indicating that it will launch cruise missiles against targets in Syria. The scale of the military operation is not known. President Obama would want to avoid a prolonged military intervention that would prove to be unpopular with the American people. It is most likely that the initial response will be short but painful, leaving the US president with further options.
Now Turkey and others are urging the US to step up its intervention. British Foreign Minister William Hague has said that Britain would back a military action even without complete unity in the UN Security Council. He said diplomacy had not worked in Syria.
But whether the US response will resemble that of Kosovo, when NATO bombed targets for weeks until a resolution was reached, or Libya, is still a mystery. The use of force in Syria will have political repercussions. Russia and Iran have warned against such action. President Assad said aggression against his country would inflame the region. Israel would want the attack on Syria to be a prelude to punishing Iran for refusing to give up its nuclear program.
Russia will try to postpone any US reaction until UN inspectors present their conclusions. It may try to sway the US by pushing the Syrian regime to attend the proposed Geneva II peace conference without conditions. It would put the US and its allies on the spot. They would have to convince the Syrian National Coalition to accept that formula as well.
So far it is evident that the US, joined by Britain and France, are moving toward launching a military strike against Syria soon. The use of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime is an unforgivable act. President Obama is under pressure at home to take a stern action.
But the US president would want to make sure that his decision would not compromise a political settlement further down the road. The US remains wary that religious extremists could take over in Syria if the regime falls.
It is possible that Washington and Moscow will agree that the best course of action now, or even after a quick punitive strike against Assad, is to revive the Geneva II option. That option will prevent chaos in Syria and is likely to stop the bloodbath there. It will also keep the US and Russia engaged at many levels. A punitive strike will also send a message to Iran that President Obama can and will take action when needed.
Such course will not satisfy those who want to see Assad defeated and ousted. A US strike will encourage the anti-Assad alliance to step-up their military support for the rebels thus prolonging the life of this intractable crisis.

•Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
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