Is Sharif facing real challenges?

Will Aug. 14 bring hope or despair for Nawaz Sharif? Different viewpoints are being aired. Most analysts see him in a dire situation, facing attacks from principal opponents like Imran Khan, Tahirul Qadri and Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). Asif Zardari’s recent statement that Sharif should have behaved like a prime minister and not a monarch was too harsh a remark to be taken lightly. The PPP and Sharif’s PML(N) had remained hand in glove so far. The sudden U-turn by the PPP leader must have come as a rude shock to him and his colleagues.
Sharif supporters rule out any negative impact of the opposition’s belligerent posture on the ruling government. They argue that the PML(N) chief still has considerable grip on the administration and is moving in right direction. Economic uptrend and army’s support have lent him enough strength to handle the situation tactfully. Both viewpoints carry weight. The fact that the prime minister had chosen to be away from the country for about 12 days or so with his entire family displayed his confidence. Before leaving for Saudi Arabia, he had met Army Chief Gen. Raheel Shareef giving a message to the public that everything was OK.
Arguments, however, continue that withdrawal of cases against former President Pervez Musharraf and allowing him to visit his ailing mother in Dubai, still remain the cause of friction between military and the current political leadership.
Zardari’s criticism of Sharif and prior to that a direct attack on Sharif by former Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani gave an entirely new dimension to the political climate. The People’s Party is perhaps trying to jump on the bandwagon of anti-Sharif movement, which Qadri and Tehrik-e-Insaf chief Imran Khan are about to launch. Imran is adamant on his “million” march toward Islamabad on the Independence Day (Aug. 14) and Tahirul Qadri revived his plans for a total and complete “revolution” next month. Both of them are capable of mobilizing mass agitation on the streets and if Muttaheda Qaumi Movement (MQM) joins them, it will be a precarious situation for Sharif-led government. Qadri pledges complete switch to a new system based on justice for the poor. He even wants to send the entire ruling elite to jails and disqualify them from seeking parliamentary seats in future for being dishonest and exploiters.
To say the situation is bad would be an understatement, it is explosive. Prolonged sit-ins at the D-Square of Islamabad, which some analysts compare with Tahrir Square of Egypt, and mass blockade on main highways, meaning major disruptions in transportation of essential supplies can be a threat to any government. Qadri is mobilizing his people for what he calls the D-Day.
The prime minister himself has avoided counterattacks on either of the two, but his Cabinet colleagues, Information Minister Pervez Rashid and Railway Minister Khawaja Saad Rafiq, are relentlessly attacking Imran Khan and has arranged a month-long celebrations to commemorate the Independence Day in order to counter Imran’s agitation plan the same day.
A number of train marches have also been planned from Karachi to Peshawar. But Sharif critics insist that nothing of the sort will work in government’s favor.
Former President Pervez Musharraf is keenly monitoring the situation. His aides say that he has resigned to fate, but relies on Qadri as a catalyst for change and also expects MQM to join hands with them. In short, things are moving much faster now than it had been anticipated pre-Ramadan. How will Sharif handle the situation depends on his acumen and maturity. Slight mishandling would be far damaging for him than he can realize.