KSA to grow as 7th largest emerging market by 2030

KSA to grow as 7th largest emerging market by 2030
Updated 26 July 2014

KSA to grow as 7th largest emerging market by 2030

KSA to grow as 7th largest emerging market by 2030

Credit Suisse forecasts Saudi Arabia to emerge as the seventh largest emerging capital market by the year 2030 (with the equity market growing to be the sixth largest emerging market from the current 10th position).
According to Credit Suisse estimates cited in a new report, Saudi Arabia would account for the second largest share of emerging ECM deal fees ($5.5 billion) over the next 17 years.
As a market with high retail ownership and a strong equity culture among high net worth individuals, secondary activity in equities should also prove to be a significant source of revenue, with average daily traded value expected to grow from $1.8 billion currently to $16.4 billion by 2030E.
The high forecast growth rate observed for Saudi Arabia would be consistent with a potential liberalization of the country’s markets, when the Saudi Capital Markets Authority proceeds with a reform package opening its bourse to direct foreign participation, thus creating significant additional external demand for Saudi assets.
Driven by accelerating growth in capital raising activities over the next one-and-a-half decades, emerging nation capital markets are expected to capture a more proportionate share of the global capital market universe relative to their economies, closing the gap with their developed peers, according to the Credit Suisse Research Institute’s “Emerging Capital Markets: The Road to 2030” report.
Despite rapid growth in capital-raising over the past two decades, emerging country capital markets remain underdeveloped relative to the size of their economies.
With a 39 percent share of global output – or 51 percent based on purchasing power parity, the 20 emerging nations currently only represent less than half of their fair share of the global capital market universe — accounting for only 22 percent of global equity market capitalization, and a 14 percent of the global corporate and sovereign bond markets.
The Credit Suisse Research Institute, however, forecasts that by 2030, Emerging Market share of global equity market capitalization will increase to 39 percent, while for corporate bonds and sovereign bonds to 36 percent and 27 percent respectively, around double their current market share.
“The disparity between developed and emerging nations in the global capital market universe will close by 2030. This should be driven by a disproportionately large contribution from emerging market equity and corporate bond supply and demand driven by growth in domestic mutual, pension and insurance funds, given the relatively high savings ratios prevalent among emerging economies. Moreover, the growing ability of Emerging Market corporates to access local currency capital markets shields them from the risk of exposure to unforeseen exchange-rate volatility,” says Stefano Natella, global head of equity research, Investment Banking, at Credit Suisse in New York.
Credit Suisse forecasts that the fastest 17-year nominal US dollar compound annual growth rate in market value of any asset class will be Emerging Market equities and corporate bonds at 13 percent, followed by Emerging Market sovereign bonds at 8 percent, doubling the growth pace of their developed peers.
Credit Suisse is forecasting growth in developed market equities, corporate and sovereign bonds to slow down at a pace of 7 percent, 5 percent and 3 percent, respectively. Consequently, the market value for emerging equities, corporate and sovereign bonds increases by $98 trillion, $47 trillion and $17 trillion, respectively, in nominal dollar terms between 2014 and 2030E, versus gains of $125 trillion, $52 trillion and $24 trillion, respectively, for these asset classes in the developed world.
“In this study, we extrapolate established historical patterns of growth in emerging and developed capital markets to assist in projecting their absolute and relative dimension and composition of market value by the year 2030. We find a strong relationship between the historical expansion of developed nation aggregate equity and corporate bond market value relative to GDP and gains in economic productivity. Thus, we used long-term projections of per capita GDP to make forecasts for both emerging and developed market equity and fixed income issuance over the 17 years to 2030,” explains Alexander Redman, Global Emerging Markets Equity Strategist, Investment Banking at Credit Suisse in London.

China equity market to overtake the UK and Japan in 2030
While the US will remain the largest equity market in 2030 with a capitalization of USD 98 trillion and a weight of 35 percent, China will overtake both the UK and Japan to become the second largest market with a $54 trillion capitalization and a weight of 19 percent. Cumulatively China has accounted for 40 percent ($639 billion) of the total emerging world equity capital markets deal value (initial public offerings and secondary public offerings) since 2000.
Over the next 17 years, China’s share will increase to 60 percent or $3.6 trillion, representing a 5.5 fold nominal increase.
The forecast is based on the assumption that China’s capital account liberalizes over the next 17 years, giving foreign investors access to the A-share market.
Similarly, Credit Suisse also forecasts China’s dominance of corporate bond market deal value in Emerging Markets over the last 14 years (a 37 percent share or $1.6 trillion of the total) will persist, eventually taking a 53 percent share (or $18.4 trillion) of total Emerging Market primary activity by 2030.
China will also represent the largest growth in corporate bond market value by 2030. Total issuance originating from China is projected to increase by nearly tenfold from $3 trillion in 2014 to $32 trillion by 2030, consistent with large-scale disintermediation by Chinese banks of state-owned enterprise and local government assets.

Emerging Markets to capture bigger share of underwriting fees
Credit Suisse also forecasts emerging countries not only will generate more underwriting fees, but will also capture a bigger share of the pie over the next 17 years. According to the report, total capital markets underwriting fees globally for the period from 2014 to 2030 will reach $638 billion in nominal terms, compared to the $307 billion in fees earned in the period 2000 to 2014. Of the fee pool, 40 percent or $256 billion is expected to be generated from Emerging Markets, versus a far smaller share of 16 percent (or $49 billion) since 2000.
The division of fees between equity and debt capital markets until 2030 will also be much more balanced (49 percent/51 percent, respectively), in comparison to a 67-33 percent split as recorded from 2000 to 2013.
The wallet share of equity and debt capital market fees captured by Emerging Market local brokers will also rise from 45 percent ($22 billion) from 2000 to 2013 to 58 percent ($149 billion) between 2014 and 2030E.


Egypt has given $9.87bn to low-income families

Egypt has given $9.87bn to low-income families
Updated 14 June 2021

Egypt has given $9.87bn to low-income families

Egypt has given $9.87bn to low-income families
  • The National Bank of Egypt topped the list of banks that provided the most funding for low-income people

CAIRO: Egyptian banks and mortgage finance companies have provided a total of EGP37.02 billion ($9.87 billion) in real estate financing to 364,900 low-income customers since the government launched the initiative seven years ago.

The Central Bank of Egypt launched a mortgage finance initiative in February 2014, offering subsidized low-interest mortgages to low-income citizens. Interest ranged from 5 to 7 percent, with the price of the homes provided to customers set by the Mortgage Finance Fund.

In total, EGP35.2 billion was provided by 22 banks to 348,700 customers, and EGP1.83 billion was given by eight mortgage finance companies to around 16,200 customers.

The National Bank of Egypt topped the list of banks that provided the most funding for low-income people, with a total of EGP9.85 billion given to 95,900 customers. Second on the list was Banque Misr with total financing amounting to EGP7.7 billion given to around 74,800 clients.

In third place was the Housing and Development Bank with EGP5.74 billion given to 63,700 customers, followed by Banque du Caire in fourth place with total financings amounting to EGP2.7 billion and 30,900 customers. Rounding out the top five was the Commercial International Bank with EGP2.04 billion and 17,700 customers. The Industrial Development Bank came in sixth, with total financing of EGP1.48 billion and around 14,000 customers, followed by the United Bank of Egypt with EGP967.5 million for about 7,900 customers and the Arab African Bank with EGP939.2 million for about 8,600 customers.

Qatar National Bank Al-Ahli contributed funds amounting to EGP881.8 million for 7,800 customers, followed by BLOM Bank Egypt in 10th place with total funds of EGP483.9 million provided to more than 4,600 customers.


Saudi Arabia’s female-only rival to Uber sees growth in first year of operations

Saudi Arabia’s female-only rival to Uber sees growth in first year of operations
Updated 30 min 49 sec ago

Saudi Arabia’s female-only rival to Uber sees growth in first year of operations

Saudi Arabia’s female-only rival to Uber sees growth in first year of operations
  • Leena started business June 2020 and has already seen average monthly growth of 25 percent

JEDDAH: June 24, 2018 was a changing point in Saudi Arabia. As the ban on women driving was lifted, and female drivers got behind the wheel, it was one of the standout moments for the Kingdom’s Vision 2030 program.

Female-only car showrooms followed; thousands of women signed up for lessons and driving licenses, Saudi women competed in professional racing competitions and American carmaker General Motors told Arab News last month that 65 percent of the buyers for one of its models were all women. 

Therefore, with the advent of disruptive digital platforms like Uber and Careem, it was only a matter of time before a female-only version, with female drivers for passengers, was born.

Leena was officially granted a license by the Saudi government in April 2019 and began operations in June last year.

The company provides taxi services for women, and the drivers — named “Captainahs” — are, like global rival Uber, all freelance operators. However, the difference here is the passengers are all exclusively women as well. 

Despite launching at the height of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, demand has been high, with the company reporting average month-on-month growth of over 25 percent.

Leena was founded by a small group of young colleagues whose primary objective was to offer women a comfortable alternative, while also maintaining their independence. 

“We came up with the idea in 2018, around the time women were granted the right to drive,” the CEO and co-founder of Leena, Mohammed Al-Aqeel, told Arab News. “We were debating all the pros and cons of creating an organization centered around women and driving, and found an overwhelming amount of pros — one of which would be to contribute in decreasing the percentage of unemployment among women.”

Despite all the positives, Al-Aqeel’s research found that common negatives from women were complaints about harassment, a lack of privacy and, at worst, even violence, when they took regular taxis.

While everything was ready to launch in 2019, Al-Aqeel said the pandemic did create a lot challenges, but the team has addressed them. 

“Every registered ‘Captainah’ is immediately informed of the new regulations and terms related to COVID-19 that they must adhere to,” he said, adding that while the authorities have not made it mandatory for drivers to be vaccinated, Leena has encouraged all “Captainahs” to do so, and the majority have had their injections.

HIGHLIGHT

Leena provides taxi services for women, and the drivers — named ‘Captainahs’ — are, like global rival Uber, all freelance operators. However, the difference here is the passengers are all exclusively women as well.

Initial demand has proved positive, to the extent that the company often does not have enough drivers to meet the number of ride requests. “Our demographic of drivers are women and we have to understand that a lot of them have familial responsibilities which they will prioritize, and since ‘Captainahs’ are freelance workers, they have the freedom to choose their own working hours to help accommodate their personal lives,” Al-Aqeel said, adding that the company is working on this issue, and has a backlog of new drivers waiting approval to receive their licenses and join the team.

Leena is also planning to launch a marketing recruitment campaign soon to attract more drivers. “We expected to do well just based on the surveys and studies we did when Leena was only an idea, and we found an overwhelming majority of people like the idea and are in support of it,” Al-Aqeel said. 

Leena has been self-financed but in order to expand to the next level it will need to look at external options. “As of today, all finances that have gone into Leena are from our own initial capital. The team and I are about to embark on an investment round to find investors to sell shares to,” Al-Aqeel said.

Looking to the future, regional rival Careem was bought by Uber for $3.1 billion. Al-Aqeel said he would be interested in an approach, but he is reluctant to sell Leena outright.

“Of course, if we had an offer we would consider it and discuss it as a team, but we won’t compromise or dispense Leena’s initial mission and cause.

We will have conditions, one of them being that Leena stays exclusive to women,” he said. “We have thought of an exit strategy, but we will preserve some shares in the company. We won’t sell the entire company.”


UAE’s RAW Coffee Co. expands to Saudi Arabia

UAE’s RAW Coffee Co. expands to Saudi Arabia
Updated 14 June 2021

UAE’s RAW Coffee Co. expands to Saudi Arabia

UAE’s RAW Coffee Co. expands to Saudi Arabia
  • The company is not planning to distribute through supermarkets but instead plans to replicate its business model in the UAE

JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia is the fastest-growing coffee market in the Middle East, expanding at an annual rate of 9.6 percent, according to research in late 2019 carried out by the organizers of the Middle East Coffee Conference held in Riyadh.

As a result, UAE-based RAW Coffee Co. has expanded its distribution network to Saudi Arabia and is eventually hoping to set up a physical presence in the Kingdom.

“We would say that the KSA specialty coffee scene is catching up to the more established UAE industry both in quality and knowledge, which is a very exciting time,” Kim Thompson, the co-owner and managing director of RAW Coffee Co., told Arab News. The company has teamed up with DHL to process its orders in the Kingdom.

“We have completed establishing our KSA business licensing and are currently exploring opportunities based out of Riyadh. At the moment, we roast and deliver fresh from our roastery in Dubai to the commercial customers in KSA that we supply, one of which is L’ETO Cafe, which has branches in Riyadh, Jeddah and Dammam,” Thompson said.

The company is not planning to distribute through supermarkets but instead plans to replicate its business model in the UAE, where it will distribute directly to customers and through third-party cafes, before eventually setting up its own operations in the Kingdom and potentially a chain of branded cafes.

RAW is not the first UAE-based coffee brand to announce expansion plans in the Kingdom this year. Emirati Coffee in April told Arab News it plans to open its first Saudi branch in July. CEO Mohammed Ali Al-Madfai reported that the company had seen a 3,135 percent increase in online sales in 2020.


Startup of the Week: Botola Meals offers healthy diets

Startup of the Week: Botola Meals offers healthy diets
Updated 14 June 2021

Startup of the Week: Botola Meals offers healthy diets

Startup of the Week: Botola Meals offers healthy diets

JEDDAH: Obesity is a growing issue in Saudi Arabia. A study by the Sharik Association for Health Research found that the rate of obesity among Saudi adults totaled 35.6 percent in 2020.

Besides health issues, another study by the US-based University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, in collaboration with Saudi Health Council and the World Bank, found that obesity increases the risk of death by COVID-19 by 48 percent, and may make vaccines against the disease less effective.

In a bid to help those suffering with their weight, entrepreneurs Mohammad Faden, Nofal Al-Jefri and Mohammad Al-Harthi in November 2019 set up Botola Meals, a healthy meal-prepping service. 

Botola is the Arabic word for heroism. “It may directly symbolize athletes and achievements, but in fact it is a deep philosophy,” Faden told Arab News. “Whatever the individual’s ambition to reach that goal is, it is in itself an achievement and a mark of heroism,” he added. Al-Jefri highlighted the fact that consumers are prone to purchasing meals that are quick to prepare. “We believe that the market needs and lacks this type of project specialized in healthy fast food, and when you specialize in a particular field, it enhances consumer confidence in your product,” Al-Jefri said. “Clean Eating Matters” is the restaurant’s slogan. Al-Harthi said that Botola Meals offers healthy diets that are not about depriving yourself, but about balance. “We also want to educate people about the importance of investing in themselves and their health in an easy and convenient way,” he said. Botola Meals also prepares customized plans to cater to the specific needs of customers, such as monitoring ingredients that cause allergies and eliminating carbohydrates if a customer is following a paleo diet.

“We sit down with the customer and cooperate as much as possible in providing what suits them,” Faden said.

The startup meal service sold about 45,000 meals in 2020 — roughly 120 meals a day.Botola Meals has one branch in Jeddah’s Al-Salama district, and is planning to open a second branch in Riyadh in 2023. The startup’s long-term plan is to expand across the Gulf and beyond.


Saudi Arabia aims to be Egypt’s top trading partner

Saudi Arabia aims to be Egypt’s top trading partner
Updated 14 June 2021

Saudi Arabia aims to be Egypt’s top trading partner

Saudi Arabia aims to be Egypt’s top trading partner
  • Saudi investors are especially interested in the water desalination and water treatment sector, says Egyptian Trade Minister

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia plans to be Egypt’s top trading partner within five years, said Saudi Commerce Minister Majid Al-Qasabi.

He made the pledge at the Egyptian-Saudi Joint Trade Committee on Monday.

The minister highlighted the presence of 6,225 Saudi companies operating in Egypt with investments amounting to some $30 billion.

At the same time, 518 Egyptian are estimated to operate in the Saudi market, with 285 Egyptian brands in the Kingdom.

Saudi investors are especially interested in the water desalination and water treatment sector, Egyptian Trade Minister Nevine Gamea told Asharq Business.

She added that the cooperation between the two countries was reflected in the trade volume, which exceeded $5.5 billion in 2020.

The volume of Egyptian investments in the Kingdom reached $1.4 billion at the end of last year, she added.