Winning the race for economic prosperity — the European hare or the GCC tortoise?
One of the problems that the global press has with GCC Summits is an absence of crises and scandal. As a journalist, I ashamedly admit that they are the lifeblood for many in my trade. If this was an EU Summit, we would have the spectacle of the British and French being very rude about each other. If this was a climate-change conference, we would be treated to the Americans and Chinese blaming each other for the ice caps melting and our atmosphere being turned into toxic soup.
Tragically for the media, there is none of this in GCC conferences. Instead, there are weeks of meetings of Gulf ministers and officials quietly and pragmatically working together on institution-building, economic integration and strategic military planning — no wonder the whiff of desperation from the media in seizing on the most tenuous hints of controversy.
At the GCC Summit, one official told me that integration is all about building up from the bottom, bringing into alignment a thousand different regulations, and unifying the financial, security and legal infrastructures until unity becomes a reality. Since its inception in 1981, this is what has been happening through a million tiny steps, bringing the Gulf states closer together.
We could compare this with the fable of the race between the quick hare and the slow tortoise. The hare dashed ahead but got distracted, lost its way and kept stopping for rests. The tortoise moved slowly but remained focused on the correct path, taking it first across the finish line.
When the Berlin Wall fell in the late 1980s, the European hare went sprinting ahead, integrating former communist states and later signing up as many states as possible to the euro.
I am a strong believer in the values and aspirations of the EU. However, the haste with which incompatible economies were brought together made it inevitable that we would see the post-2008 financial catastrophes, where richer nations such as Germany were forced to bail out indebted basket-case economies such as Greece and other southern states.
The extraordinary imbalances in wealth entailed that when borders were opened, large numbers of unemployed citizens from the east flocked to states such as the UK, creating challenges for social integration.
All this time, without the world paying much attention, the Gulf tortoise has been slowly but surely working toward mutually beneficial integration, carefully considering the next steps, but never stopping and taking a rest from its relentless progress. As every child knows, it was the tortoise that won the race.
With an exponential increase in inter-GCC trade, from $6 billion in its first years to $115 billion in 2015, can it really be argued that integration has not made huge progress? Most of this growth occurred after the 2003 establishment of the GCC customs union (when trade was around $15 billion), which shows in real terms how much difference such measures can have on our economies.
The post-World War II aspiration of the EU was to put an end to millennia of European infighting. Europeans are a mixture of languages, cultures and seething ethnic rivalries. We can applaud the ambition to unify them, while ridiculing the naivety of those who thought it would be easy.
This recalls the skeptical question raised at the height of 1950s Nasserist dreams for pan-Arab unity: “Shu lamma Al-Shami ala Al-Maghribi?” (“What lumps the Syrian with the Moroccan?”). The difference with GCC unity is that sisters and brothers of an already unified culture are being brought closer together.
For thousands of years before Islam, the tribes of the Arabian Peninsula spoke similar dialects and saw each other as a common culture. These tribes came together after the time of Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) to spread Islam and Arab culture across Africa and Asia. At a time when much of the region is in crisis, the common monarchical culture of the GCC states is proving far more durable and vibrant than most Westerners will give it credit for.
In terms of food, music, dance and clothing, there are amazing commonalities. Likewise with Ramadan and Eid traditions, the emphasis on traditional hospitality, and ubiquitous features of Arab life such as dates and qahwa (coffee).
In the GCC, there is often a failure to acknowledge how blessed the Gulf nations are in sharing such a close cultural heritage. Given Saudi Arabia’s vast size, there are arguably greater cultural differences between some major Saudi population centers — Jeddah and Riyadh, for example — than between GCC states.
When the UK voted to leave the EU, the reaction of many European leaders amounted to: “You’ve made your decision, now pack your things and leave.” This unsentimental response (as well as responses that were a lot ruder) illustrates the rivalries, animosities and differences that linger under the surface between many European nationalities. The close compatibility between GCC oil-based economies means avoiding the obvious pitfalls of trying to unify diverse economies such as Sweden and Romania.
Going into 2017, GCC economies are facing a similar challenge of energizing and diversifying their private sectors during a period of historically low oil prices. Efforts to work in synchronicity to reduce the burden of subsidies and increase revenues preserve a level playing field across the GCC, and prevent large multinationals or foreign states from playing nations off against one another and seeking unfair advantages.
Open borders for citizens make it easy for GCC nationals to travel and work across borders. Movement across borders of Gulf nationals within the GCC has risen by 89 percent in just a decade, reaching 25 million in 2015. There has been a comparable increase in citizens working in the private sectors of neighboring states. This is good for business, tourism, cultural ties and citizens’ quality of life.
The EU and economic blocs in Southeast Asia and South America have moved forward in fits and starts. While US President Barack Obama was an advocate of open trade, President-elect Donald Trump never misses an opportunity to attack the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).
There are thus many reasons to believe that the world is swinging back to a more isolationist and protectionist phase. The GCC alliance will help shield Gulf states from the damage of trade wars and tariff barriers, while acting as a beacon for a more open and enlightened economic model.
The steady momentum of GCC integration is unstoppable. This unified front is necessary to confront regional challenges such as Syria and Yemen, while also speaking with one voice in the face of aggressive Iranian meddling.
GCC Secretary-General Abdullatif Al-Zayani pointed out that Iran is the party that targets the sovereignty of GCC member states and other countries in the region, and undermines the principle of good neighborliness. For the smaller GCC states in particular, collective security is clearly a priority at a time of regional uncertainty.
At this moment in time, it is fair to say that the US and Europe do not know what they want. The tensions between globalization and isolationism are pulling societies in two incompatible directions. The result will inevitably be messy, with unsettling global ramifications.
In the race toward a sophisticated and integrated globalized economy that provides for all citizens, incompatible visions and interests are causing the “developed” world to run around chasing its own tail. We can therefore be quietly confident that the Gulf tortoise will be the first to cross the finish line.
From my seat inside the GCC Summit, my eyes were on the faces of the heads of state chairing the event. These faces will decide when, how and to what extent further moves toward unity will occur. As for the people of the Arabian Gulf, they have long since made up their minds about their desire to continue on the path of unity.
• Baria Alamuddin is an award-winning journalist and broadcaster in the Middle East and the UK.
Disclaimer: Views expressed by writers in this section are their own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News' point of view
