Lloyd’s of London expects $4.5bn in losses from Harvey, Irma

Lloyd’s 80-plus syndicates have already paid out more than $400 million in claims from hurricanes Harvey and Irma. (Reuters)
Updated 29 September 2017

Lloyd’s of London expects $4.5bn in losses from Harvey, Irma

LONDON: Lloyd’s of London expects net losses of $4.5 billion from hurricanes Harvey and Irma, which analysts said would eat into the insurer’s capital and hit its profitability.
Although losses from natural catastrophes have been low in recent years, including in the first half of 2017, that is set to change in the second half of the year, Lloyd’s chief executive Inga Beale said following Thursday’s results.
“There was limited major claim activity in the first half. There’s a very different second half emerging — it’s not only the hurricanes but we’ve got the Mexican earthquakes, floods in Asia, typhoons in Asia,” Beale told Reuters.
“The hurricane season is still in play, earthquakes can happen at any time,” Beale said as Lloyd’s reported a 16 percent profit fall in the first half of 2017.
Lloyd’s 80-plus syndicates have already paid out more than $160 million in claims from Harvey and more than $240 million from Irma, Beale said. The $4.5 billion net loss estimate was based on modeling of “known exposures,” she added.
“Given that the Lloyd’s of London market typically produces earnings of £2.1-3.5 billion, it is highly likely that the market faces a capital loss,” Jefferies analysts said in a note.
Modelling firm RMS estimates total insured losses from Harvey and Irma of up to $80 billion.
Meanwhile, Beale said it was too early to assess losses from Hurricane Maria, which devastated Puerto Rico last week and which some analysts have predicted will lead to greater insurance losses than Harvey and Irma.
Lloyd’s made £1.22 billion ($1.63 billion) in profit before tax in the six months to the end of June, down from £1.46 billion a year earlier, although Beale said part of the drop in profit was related to currency fluctuations.
Insurance rates have been falling for the world’s largest specialist insurance market and other insurers for several years due to strong competition.
Lloyd’s return on capital worsened to 8.9 percent from 11.7 percent, due to pressure on returns from low interest rates.
Gross premiums rose to £18.9 billion from £16.3 billion last year, and its combined ratio improved to 96.9 percent from 98 percent in 2016. A combined ratio is a measure of underwriting profitability, with a level below 100 percent indicating a profit.
Jefferies said recent natural catastrophes meant that a combined ratio for the year of 112.5 percent for Lloyd’s “is now a possibility,” indicating higher underwriting losses than 2011, which it said was “the last major catastrophe year.”
Lloyd’s was on track to open its planned EU subsidiary in Brussels by the middle of next year, Beale said, adding the new hub would employ “tens” of people and the firm would be submitting its formal license application “very shortly.”
More than 20 insurers have announced plans for EU hubs in the event that Britain loses access to the single market as a result of its departure from the EU.


Oil recoups losses as OPEC, US Fed see robust economy

Updated 14 November 2019

Oil recoups losses as OPEC, US Fed see robust economy

  • US-China trade deal will help remove ‘dark cloud’ over oil, says Barkindo

LONDON: Oil prices reversed early losses on Wednesday after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said it saw no signs of global recession and rival US shale oil production could grow by much less than expected in 2020.

Also supporting prices were comments by US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who said the US economy would see a “sustained expansion” with the full impact of recent interest rate cuts still to be felt.

Brent crude futures stood roughly flat at around $62 per barrel by 1450 GMT, having fallen by over 1 percent earlier in the day. US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $56 per barrel, up 20 cents or 0.4 percent.

“The baseline outlook remains favorable,” Powell said.

OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said global economic fundamentals remained strong and that he was still confident that the US and China would reach a trade deal.

“It will almost remove that dark cloud that had engulfed the global economy,” Barkindo said, adding it was too early to discuss the output policy of OPEC’s December meeting.

HIGHLIGHT

  • US oil production likely to grow by just 0.3-0.4 million barrels per day next year — or less than half of previous expectations.
  • The prospects for ‘US crude exports had turned bleak after shipping rates jumped last month.’

He also said some US companies were now saying US oil production would grow by just 0.3-0.4 million barrels per day next year — or less than half of previous expectations — reducing the risk of an oil glut next year.

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday Washington and Beijing were close to finalizing a trade deal, but he fell short of providing a date or venue for the signing ceremony.

“The expectations of an inventory build in the US and uncertainty over the OPEC+ strategy on output cuts and US/China trade deal are weighing on oil prices,” said analysts at ING, including the head of commodity strategy Warren Patterson.

In the US, crude oil inventories were forecast to have risen for a third straight week last week, while refined products inventories likely declined, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Tuesday.

ANZ analysts said the prospects for US crude exports had turned bleak after shipping rates jumped last month.