Global solar forecasts lowered as China cuts support policies

China said it would not build any more solar power stations in 2018 and cut its feed-in tariff subsidy. (AFP)
Updated 07 June 2018

Global solar forecasts lowered as China cuts support policies

  • China is the world’s largest producer of solar panels
  • Lower solar subsidies for producers will impact global installations

China’s unexpected move to slash incentives for solar power has sent stocks into a free fall and prompted analysts to lower forecasts for global installations this year amid expectations that a glut of excess panels would send prices tumbling.

China announced on June 1 changes to the subsidies that has underpinned its rise to become the world’s largest solar market in recent years.

IHS Markit, a market research firm, was preparing to lower its global solar installation forecast for this year by between 5 and 10 gigawatts, or up to 9 percent, analyst Camron Barati said. The impact in China, which accounts for half the global market, could be up to 17 GW, the firm said.

Another market research firm, Wood Mackenzie, said on Wednesday that China’s capacity additions would likely be about 20 GW lower than it had expected.

An oversupply of cheap Chinese-made panels that had been destined for domestic projects will help boost demand for solar in other countries and sop up some of the demand lost in China, IHS said.
But a drop in prices will leave manufacturers with razor-thin margins as they seek to unload their products.

“There will be a stressful environment for pricing in the near term,” Barati said. “Something like this certainly has global ripples.”

In April, IHS Markit forecast 2018 global installations would hit a record 113 GW, with 53 GW coming from China alone. China is also the world’s largest producer of solar panels.

But the Asian nation last week said it would not build any more solar power stations in 2018 and cut its feed-in tariff subsidy, which guarantees a certain price for power.


Solar investors reacted by selling off stocks. The MAC Global Solar index is down 7 percent this week. Chinese panel makers Canadian Solar Inc, JinkoSolar Holding and Yingli Green Energy Holding have been hit, as well as US panel makers SunPower and First Solar.

JMP Securities analyst Joe Osha slashed his rating on First Solar shares to “underperform” on Wednesday and cut his price target to $46 from $87.

The Trump administration’s 30 percent tariffs on solar imports will help support prices in the US, Osha said, but added that First Solar is seeking to do more business overseas and pricing everywhere could get very competitive.

“No business is insulated from market reality,” he said.


Oil prices rise as faith in supply cuts grows

Updated 33 min 54 sec ago

Oil prices rise as faith in supply cuts grows

  • Producers are following through on commitments to cut supplies as fuel demand picks up with coronavirus restrictions easing
  • OPEC+ countries are due to meet again in early June to discuss maintaining their supply cuts to shore up prices

NEW YORK: Oil prices rose on Tuesday, supported by growing confidence that producers are following through on commitments to cut supplies and as fuel demand picks up with coronavirus restrictions easing.
Brent crude futures were up 45 cents, or 1.3%, at $35.98 a barrel by 1:09 p.m. EDT (1709 GMT). US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 89 cents, or 2.7%, to $34.14.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other leading oil producers including Russia, a group known as OPEC+, agreed last month to cut their combined output by almost 10 million barrels per day in May-June to shore up prices and demand, which has been hit by the coronavirus pandemic.
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak is due to meet oil major producers on Tuesday to discuss the possible extension of the current level of cuts beyond June, sources familiar with the plans told Reuters.
The RIA news agency said Russian oil production volumes were near the country’s target of 8.5 million bpd for May and June.
On Monday, Russia’s energy ministry quoted Novak as saying that a rise in fuel demand should help to cut a global surplus of about 7 million to 12 million bpd by June or July.
OPEC+ countries are due to meet again in early June to discuss maintaining their supply cuts to shore up prices, which are still down about 45% since the start of the year.
“The 16 million bpd oversupply in crude during April could be reversed altogether by June, helped by a 4 million-bpd recovery in crude demand and a 12 million-bpd cut in crude supply,” said Bjornar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets for Rystad Energy.
“OPEC+ is pulling the most weight by far, effectively reducing supply by nearly 9 million bpd while non-OPEC+ crude supply is down by more than 3.5 million bpd from March levels.”
In an indication of lower supply in the future, data from energy services business Baker Hughes showed that the US rig count hit a record low of 318 last week.