China’s second-half GDP growth to ease around 6.6% — state think tank

The US and China imposed duties on $34 billion worth of each other’s imports on Friday, starting a trade war that could drag on for some time. (Reuters)
Updated 07 July 2018

China’s second-half GDP growth to ease around 6.6% — state think tank

SHANGHAI: China’s broad economic growth was expected to ease to around 6.6 percent in the second half of this year, the State Information Center said on Saturday.
The official China Securities Journal quoted the State Information Center (SIC) saying the Chinese economy is likely to experience a mild slowdown in the second half of the year as financial market risks become “obvious” and demand is expected to decline.
The SIC is an official think tank affiliated with the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s top economic planning agency.
The economy has already felt the pinch from a crackdown on riskier lending that has driven up corporate borrowing costs.
The central bank has since pumped more cash into the economy to ease fears from the start of a trade war with the United States by cutting reserve requirements for banks.
“Uncertainties in both internal and external economic developments are rising. Global trade frictions are intensifying while a spill-over effect from major economies’ monetary policy normalization will amplify financial market volatility,” the think tank said.
“Downward pressure on the Chinese economy has increased.”
The United States and China imposed duties on $34 billion worth of each other’s imports on Friday, starting a trade war that could drag on for some time.
A Reuters poll of 55 economists this week showed China’s gross domestic product growth was expected to ease marginally to 6.7 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, versus the 6.8 percent seen in the previous three quarters.
China is due to publish second quarter GDP on July 16, along with other activity data.
The State Information Center think tank expected dollar-denominated exports to grow around 8 percent in the second half versus a year earlier and imports to rise about 12 percent.
It forecast consumer inflation of around 1.8 percent and producer price inflation would pick up to about 2.5 percent in the second half from a year earlier.
In the same article, the SIC said it expected China’s industrial output to grow about 6.6 percent in the July-December period from a year earlier, with fixed-asset investment growth of around 6.5 percent and retail sales seen rising about 9.5 percent.


IMF warns of Asia’s darkening growth outlook as trade war bites

Updated 18 October 2019

IMF warns of Asia’s darkening growth outlook as trade war bites

  • The IMF cut its economic growth forecast for the Asia-Pacific region to 5.0 percent for this year and 5.1 percent for 2020
  • It also slashed China’s growth forecast to 6.1 percent for this year and 5.8 percent for 2020
WASHINGTON: Asian nations face heightening risks to their economic outlooks as the US-China trade war and slumping Chinese demand hurt the world’s fastest-growing region, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday.
In its World Economic Outlook report on Tuesday, the IMF cut its economic growth forecast for the Asia-Pacific region to 5.0 percent for this year and 5.1 percent for 2020 — the slowest pace of expansion since the global financial crisis more than a decade ago.
“Headwinds from global policy uncertainty and growth deceleration in major trading partners are taking a toll on manufacturing, investment, trade, and growth,” Changyong Rhee, director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific department, said during a news conference at the IMF and World Bank fall meetings.
“Risks are skewed to the downside,” he said, calling on policymakers in the region to focus on near-term fiscal and monetary policy steps to spur growth.
“The intensification in trade tensions between the US and China could further weigh on confidence and financial markets, thereby weakening trade, investment and growth,” he said.
A faster-than-expected slowdown in China’s economic growth could also generate negative spillovers in the region, as many Asian countries have supply chains closely tied to China, he added.
The IMF slashed China’s growth forecast to 6.1 percent for this year and 5.8 percent for 2020, pointing to the impact from the trade conflict and tighter regulation to address excess debt.