Turkish lira weakens, Moody's delivers more downgrades

People look at foreign exchange rates in Ankara, Turkey, on August 28, 2018. / AFP / ADEM ALTAN
Updated 28 August 2018

Turkish lira weakens, Moody's delivers more downgrades

ISTANBUL: The Turkish lira weakened on Tuesday as investors weighed up Turkey's efforts to manage its rift with the United States after Finance Minister Berat Albayrak said U.S. trade sanctions against Ankara could destabilise the Middle East.
The currency has lost about 38 percent of its value against the dollar this year due to a sell-off accelerated by a row with Washington over an American evangelical Christian pastor detained in Turkey on terrorism charges.
More broadly, investors are worried about the direction of monetary policy under President Tayyip Erdogan. The president, a self-described "enemy of interest rates" has repeatedly put public pressure on the central bank and picked Albayrak, his son-in-law, as finance minister.
The attendant sell-off in the lira has raised concerns about the impact on the broader economy - given Turkey's reliance on dollar-denominated energy imports - and a possible surge in bad loans in the banking sector.
At 1527 GMT, the lira stood at 6.2561 against the dollar, weakening from a close of 6.1200 on Monday, when it weakened to near 6.3 before rebounding in its first day of trade after a week-long holiday.
The main stock index rose 2.83 percent by Tuesday's close to 93,866.94 points.
"At this point in time Turkey has become pretty much un-tradable," said Tim Ash of BlueBay Asset Management in emailed comments. "The market wants to see specific delivery on policy whether that is monetary, fiscal or action to clear up problems in the banking sector."
Germany denied a report that it might provide financial aid to Turkey to help it weather the currency crisis.
Also on Tuesday ratings agency Moody's downgraded 20 Turkish financial institutions, saying there were signs of substantial increase in risk of a downside scenario. It said Turkey's operating environment had deteriorated beyond previous expectations.
Facing economic pressure from the United States, Turkey has signalled a wish to improve strained ties with the European Union, which it still aspires to join despite disagreements.
After meeting his French counterpart in Paris on Monday, Albayrak also took aim at the United States, saying U.S. sanctions could ultimately aggravate the region's terrorism and refugee crises..
Both Erdogan and Albayrak are also set to visit Germany at the end of September.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Germany was in early stage talks to provide emergency financial aid to Turkey, fearing its economic troubles could spread to Europe and further destabilise the Middle East. But a German official denied this.
"You can't do much from the outside but to stress that Turkey must reform itself," a second official told Reuters.
U.S. President Donald Trump this month authorised a doubling of duties on aluminium and steel imported from Turkey, triggering retaliatory measures from Ankara.
Investors are also worried by a U.S. Treasury investigation into state-owned Turkish lender Halkbank, which could face a potentially hefty fine over allegations of busting sanctions on Iran. The bank has said all its transactions were legal.
Turkey and the United States are also at odds over their diverging interests in Syria and U.S. objections to Ankara's plan to buy Russian defence systems.
Separately, Ankara announced a new campaign on Tuesday to support the real estate sector, offering a 10 percent discount on some home sales. Under the campaign, any price increases due to rising exchange rates will be discounted from the cost of the residence, the environment and urbanisation minister said.

OECD forecast sees global growth at decade low

Updated 22 November 2019

OECD forecast sees global growth at decade low

  • Governments failing to get to grips with challenges, outlook says

PARIS: The global economy is growing at the slowest pace since the financial crisis as governments leave it to central banks to revive investment, the OECD said on Thursday in an update of its forecasts.

The world economy is projected to grow by a decade-low 2.9 percent this year and next, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said in its Economic Outlook, trimming its 2020 forecast from an estimate of 3 percent in September.

Offering meagre consolation, the Paris-based policy forum forecast growth would edge up to 3 percent in 2021, but only if a myriad of risks ranging from trade wars to an unexpectedly sharp Chinese slowdown is contained.

A bigger concern, however, is that governments are failing to get to grips with global challenges such as climate change, the digitalization of their economies and the crumbling of the multilateral order that emerged after the fall of Communism.

“It would be a policy mistake to consider these shifts as temporary factors that can be addressed with monetary or fiscal policy: they are structural,” OECD chief economist Laurence Boone wrote in the report.

Without clear policy direction on these issues, “uncertainty will continue to loom high, damaging growth prospects,” she added.

Among the major economies, US growth was forecast at 2.3 percent this year, trimmed from 2.4 percent in September as the fiscal impulse from a 2017 tax cut waned and amid weakness among US trading partners.

With the world’s biggest economy seen growing 2 percent in 2020 and 2021, the OECD said further interest rate cuts would be warranted only if growth turned weaker.

China, which is not an OECD member but is tracked by it, was forecast to grow marginally faster in 2019 than had been expected in September, with growth of 6.2 percent rather than 6.1 percent.

However, the OECD said that China would keep losing momentum, with growth of 5.7 percent expected in 2020 and 5.5 percent in 2021 in the face of trade tensions and a gradual rebalancing of activity away from exports to the domestic economy.

In the euro area, growth was seen at 1.2 percent in 2019 and 1.1 percent in 2020, up both years by 0.1 percentage point on the September forecast. It is seen at 1.2 percent in 2021.

The OECD warned that the relaunch of bond buying at the European Central Bank would have a limited impact if euro area countries did not boost investment.

The outlook for Britain improved marginally from September as the prospect of a no-deal exit from the EU recedes.

British growth was upgraded to 1.2 percent this year from 1 percent previously and was seen at 1 percent in 2020.