Oil rises on Iran sanctions and lower US stockpiles

An oil well pump jack is seen at an oil field supply yard near Denver, Colorado, U.S., February 2, 2015. (Reuters)
Updated 30 August 2018

Oil rises on Iran sanctions and lower US stockpiles

LONDON: Oil prices extended gains yesterday as the market considered the impact of reduced Iranian exports and a fall in
US stockpiles.

Brent crude gained more than 50 cents a barrel at $77.64 by midday in London, taking its weekly gain to almost 10 percent.

US light crude was 40 cents higher at about $69.91.

“The oil market is once again tightening after a short period in late June and early July when it was likely oversupplied,” said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS Group AG in Zurich. “Iranian oil export declines are already visible well in advance of US oil-related sanctions.”

Most of Iran’s customers are already facing difficulties in buying the country’s crude even before sanctions are imposed on Nov. 4, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.

India and China’s combined purchases of Iranian oil could drop about 23 percent to almost 1 million barrels a day amid the US restrictions, ESAI Energy said. 

OPEC is set to discuss the impact of the decline in Iranian crude on global energy markets when it meets in December — more than a month after the oil sanctions come into effect.

“A sudden drop in Iranian crude shipments from the market will cause big shortages and a negative impact on oil prices,” he said, referring to a possible increase in prices,” Alaa Al-Yasiri the head of Iraq’s state-oil marketer SOMO, told Reuters on Wednesday. “It’s very difficult to predict what’s going to happen in next OPEC meeting but producers must find ways to make up for Iranian crude that the market will lose. The major issue during the next OPEC meeting will be are producers really ready to pump more oil to compensate Iran’s share?”

Ongoing concerns over supplies from Venezuela as well as declining US oil inventories have stengthened claims that the global oil market is tightening once again.

US commercial crude inventories fell by 2.6 million barrels in the week to Aug. 24, to 405.79 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. That was more than forecast.

Still, current US sanctions on Iran are unlikely to stop Iranian oil exports completely, a long-time adviser at Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry said on Tuesday, adding Iran would be unable to close the straits of Hormuz and Bab Al-Mandab even partially.

Speaking at an oil conference in the Norwegian city of Stavanger, Ibrahim Al-Muhanna said that Iran would be the first to lose out from any move to block those major shipping routes and that any such action would trigger further sanctions on Iran.

Iran has said if it cannot sell its oil due to US pressure, then no other regional country will be allowed to do so either, threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz.

“The amount of oil going through the Strait of Hormuz is so large. There’s more than 18 million barrels a day, about two-thirds of world maritime oil trade. Meaning, cutting oil from there will lead to an acute oil shortage and prices will skyrocket,” Muhanna said.


China's aviation regulator raised concerns with Boeing on 737 MAX design changes

Updated 12 December 2019

China's aviation regulator raised concerns with Boeing on 737 MAX design changes

  • China is reviewing the airworthiness of the plane
  • China was first country to ground plane in March

BEIJING: China’s aviation regulator raised “important concerns” with Boeing Co. on the reliability and security of design changes to the grounded 737 MAX, it said on Thursday, but declined to comment on when the plane might fly again in China.
China is reviewing the airworthiness of the plane based on proposed changes to software and flight control systems according to a bilateral agreement with the United States, Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) spokesman Liu Luxu told reporters at a monthly briefing.
He reiterated that for the plane to resume flights in China, it needed to be re-certified, pilots needed comprehensive and effective training to restore confidence in the model and the causes of two crashes that killed 346 people needed to be investigated with effective measures put in place to prevent another one.
China was the first country to ground the 737 MAX after the second crash in Ethiopia in March and had set up a task force to review design changes to the aircraft that Boeing had submitted.
The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) will not allow the 737 MAX to resume flying before the end of 2019, its chief, Steve Dickson, said on Wednesday.
Once the FAA approves the reintroduction into service, the 737 MAX can operate in the United States, but individual regulators could keep the planes grounded in other countries until they complete their own reviews.
“Due to the trade war, the jury is still out on when China would reintroduce the aircraft,” said Rob Morris, Global Head of Consultancy at Ascend by Cirium.
Chinese airlines had 97 737 MAX jets in operation before the global grounding, the most of any country, according to Cirium Fleets Analyzer.