Stronger US dollar unlikely to derail bullish view on commodities — Goldman Sachs

The dollar has been lifted by a stronger-than-expected US economy, the world’s largest, US investment bank Goldman Sachs said. (AFP)
Updated 21 September 2018

Stronger US dollar unlikely to derail bullish view on commodities — Goldman Sachs

  • The dollar has been lifted by a stronger-than-expected US economy, the world’s largest
  • A stronger greenback makes the purchase of dollar-denominated international commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies

BENGALURU: Goldman Sachs said a stronger dollar is unlikely to derail its bullish view on commodities, which are likely to find support from physical shortages.
The dollar has been lifted by a stronger-than-expected US economy, the world’s largest, and that’s a positive sign for global growth, the US investment bank said.
The US dollar index has lost more than 1 percent this week, but this follows months of strong demand over US-China trade-related tensions, as investors bet the greenback would gain at the expense of riskier currencies.
“The risk aversion this summer created significant emerging market destocking, particularly in China, as consumers attempted to avoid a strong dollar and tariffs by liquidating inventories,” Goldman said in a note dated on Thursday.
A stronger greenback makes the purchase of dollar-denominated international commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies, making buyers and users more likely to draw on any stored materials in preference to imports.
“This liquidation, however, has a physical limit with Chinese destocking having already created significant increases in physical (premiums) for oil and metals – a sign of physical shortages.”
Going forward, oil had a strong fundamental outlook helped by US demand growth, supply losses and disruptions, and still constrained US shale output, Goldman said.
The bank said its near-term Brent crude oil price target remained at $80 a barrel.
The bank said it was moderating its bullish view for gold due to a sell-off in emerging markets, and it lowered its 12-month price forecast for the metal to $1,325 per ounce, down from $1,450 an ounce earlier.


Saudi Arabia PIF’s $40bn boost aimed at post-pandemic profit

Updated 12 min 12 sec ago

Saudi Arabia PIF’s $40bn boost aimed at post-pandemic profit

  • Since the COVID-19 crisis began, the PIF has spent $7.7 billion amassing a portfolio

DUBAI: The Public Investment Fund (PIF), Saudi Arabia’s ambitious sovereign wealth fund, is seeking to use the extra $40 billion it was recently granted from government reserves to benefit the Kingdom and its citizens when the current coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is over.

A spokesperson for the PIF said that the injection from reserves held by the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority — announced last week — “allow us to tap into a number of local and global investment opportunities at attractive prices. This includes investments in sectors that are well positioned to drive economic growth and value creation and derive benefits for the citizens of our country well beyond the current crisis.”

Since the COVID-19 crisis began, the PIF has spent $7.7 billion amassing a portfolio of shake stakes in some of the best-known corporate brand names in the world, including Boeing, Disney, Facebook and Marriott International. It also took big holdings in independent oil companies Shell, Total and BP, as well as banking giants like Citigroup and Bank of America.

The shares of these and other investments in the PIF spending spree had been affected by the dramatic downturn in the US stock market after the first pandemic related lockdowns. They have since recovered almost to all-time highs as US authorities took emergency measures to support its financial institutions.

Some investors are calculating that there will be a rapid economic recovery when the lockdowns end, to send stock markets soaring again.

“The PIF’s role is to invest the nation’s wealth in a way that generates long-term attractive returns and a diversified source of wealth for the Saudi people. The uncertainty caused by COVID-19, and the subsequent drop in global oil prices, highlights why our economic diversification efforts are so important. Capital injections from the government are an established source of funding for the PIF, as outlined in our strategy as part of our Vision Realization Program,” the PIF spokesman said.

The fresh resources for the fund, which has $320 billion of assets under management, will provide extra firepower to take advantage of perceived bargains. Yasir Al-Rumayyan, governor of the PIF, said last month: “You don’t want to waste a crisis. We’re looking into any opportunities.”