Strong demand keeps oil prices rising

Strong demand keeps oil prices rising
Offshore oil drilling platform ‘Gail’ operated by Venoco, Inc., is shown off the coast of Santa Barbara, California (File photo / AP)
Updated 29 September 2018

Strong demand keeps oil prices rising

Strong demand keeps oil prices rising

RIYADH: Oil prices continued their upward momentum and the price of Brent crude rose to $82.72 per barrel. This was the first weekly closing above $80 since October 2014. West Texan Intermediate hit $73.25 per barrel. The Brent/Dubai spread widened to $9.47 per barrel by the week’s closing on Friday. The recovery in oil prices owes much to the strength of global oil demand.
When OPEC met in November 2014 and decided to change its market strategy, global oil demand was about 92 million barrels per day (bpd). It has now grown to nearly 100 million bpd, with crude inventories down below the five-year average.
For the first time since August 2014, predictions have begun on the return of oil to $100 per barrel. This is happening in an atmosphere of uncertainty as further output increases from OPEC are yet to materialize. At present, the market is not in need of any production hikes to compensate for the US sanctions on Iran’s oil exports.
Revising oil price forecasts higher could be rational, but the fundamental bullishness might be tempered by theoretical concerns over demand that have no strong argument of support. Inventory drawdowns continue and global oil demand has risen 7.5 million bpd since the end of 2014.
The fall in Iran’s oil output has yet to result in growth in OPEC’s output because the market supply/demand balance is still not in a supply deficit. This is why OPEC’s decision for an output increase will follow Iran’s output decline inversely for the rest of 2018. OPEC’s output is likely to rise in 2019 as needed.
Should output be increased now or is it still premature to ramp up production?
This is the question that every market analyst is considering. There are arguments that the oil market cannot be tight and yet well supplied at the same time. This is true. But although the market is tight, supply deficits haven’t materialized. For instance, all Saudi Aramco crude oil customers have been allocated their requested monthly crude oil shipments in their entirety. This is a strong sign that there is not a supply deficit in the market.
Additionally, the US has decided to sell 11 million barrels of oil from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Deliveries are to take place in October and November. The US SPR currently stores 660 million barrels of oil in massive underground salt caverns. It is the world’s largest supply of emergency crude oil. March 2014 was the last time oil was released from the SPR on a test basis. That happened when oil prices were almost $30 per barrel higher than their current level. It is possible for the US President to decide to tap the US SPR to try to modulate oil prices for the first time, but many analysts believe such a move would be largely symbolic.
The release of 11 million barrels isn’t enough to make up Iran’s entire production but that might not be necessary. This week India confirmed that it will continue to import oil from Iran, albeit at a reduced rate. China has also reduced Iranian oil imports but continues to defend its energy trade with Tehran.
US President Trump could attempt to pressure India into a zero import position for Iranian oil, for without it his sanctions lack impact. However, efforts are under way by the EU, China and Russia to implement a barter system with Iran that will allow it to exchange oil for the imports it needs. OPEC is surely waiting to see just how much production is required before ramping up output.
Tapping the US SPR might not reduce oil prices amid the oil market tightness but instead further widen the Brent/WTI spread as a result of the difficulties facing shale oil producers in exporting their oil. This comes simultaneously with Cushing, Oklahoma inventories that are now close to tank bottoms.
Rebuilding of these inventories has begun though, with the usual rise off the seasonal lows likely to be assisted by a return to normal output from the Canadian oil sands in Alberta.


Saudi Arabia meeting water scarcity challenge with innovation

Saudi Arabia meeting water scarcity challenge with innovation
Updated 25 January 2021

Saudi Arabia meeting water scarcity challenge with innovation

Saudi Arabia meeting water scarcity challenge with innovation
  • Kingdom is third biggest consumer per capita in the world, after US and Canada

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s National Water Co. (NWC) this month signed a $5.36 million two-year contract with a French utilities company to reduce the amount of water lost during the Kingdom’s water production process, known as non-revenue water in the industry.

This is a positive step forward, as a report released late last year by global consultancy firm Oliver Wyman found that while water usage is rising, supply is diminishing. The study estimated that 25 percent of the world’s population lives in areas that suffer extremely high water stress, and by 2050 that portion of the population will more than double.

“With water resources becoming increasingly scarce globally, the Middle East region is addressing the critical issues, with governments increasingly adopting new strategies for balancing their scarce water resources and growing demand for fresh water,” said Bruno Sousa, a partner in the Energy Practice at Oliver Wyman. “This has led some countries in the Middle East to turn to options such as desalination and
treatment, and reuse of wast water,” he added.

Saudi Arabia is the third biggest consumer of water per capita in the world, after the US and Canada. The Kingdom has implemented a series of measures to rationalize water consumption as part of its Vision 2030 program, with the aim of reducing consumption by 24 percent in 2021 and by up to 43 percent by the end of the decade.

The Saudi Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture has developed a unified water sector reference framework that includes a comprehensive water strategy, which integrates national water sector trends, policies, legislation and practices with the main objective of addressing these key challenges and restructuring the sector. Dr. Ibrahim Aref, director of the rehabilitation of agricultural terraces initiative at the ministry, told Arab News that most of the Arabian Peninsula’s water resources comes from rainfall. Yet, rainfall in the Kingdom, especially in the center of the Arabian Peninsula, is very weak compared to any other place in the world, thus causing water scarcity.

New technology has been developed over the years to minimize the environmental impact of desalination.

Bruno Sousa

Aref pointed out that even though the Arabian Peninsula, in general, experiences dry seasons that last for two, four or up to seven years, the Kingdom has been blessed with a strong economy and therefore has been able to work on many solutions that might be unusual elsewhere in the world, such as desalination.

According to Oliver Wyman’s Sousa, desalination can be achieved through two main technologies: Thermal and electric.

He told Arab News that thermal technology consists of heating water and collecting the resulting evaporated pure water. “This is a very energy-intensive process, requiring both electricity and thermal energy to heat the water. As part of the process, electricity is also generated that can be injected into the electric grid.

“Electric consists mainly in reverse osmosis, where water is forced through membranes that remove salt ... it is also an energy-intensive process, but only requires electricity to run,” he said.

“Although thermal desalination is still used, reverse osmosis is the mainstream technology, adopted mainly because of lower costs (including with energy) and a higher rate of potable water conversion from seawater,” he added. Sousa said that new technology has been developed over the years to minimize the environmental impact of desalination. Spanish firm Acciona last year completed the construction of the Al-Khobar I desalination plant in Saudi Arabia, and since Dec. 26, it has produced 210,000 cubic meters of drinking water per day, which will supply a population of 350,000. It is one of the biggest desalination plants in Saudi Arabia in terms of capacity.

Desalination is not the only way the Kingdom is looking to address the issue of water shortages. One of the largest programs being undertaken by the Ministry of Environment, Water and Agriculture is the rehabilitation of agricultural terraces in the southwest of the Kingdom.

The project aims to increase the efficiency of water use for agricultural purposes and to rely on renewable sources that contribute to food security, rural development and increased productivity of strategic crops.