Strategies behind the Iran sanctions — Arab News' weekly energy recap

Strategies behind the Iran sanctions — Arab News' weekly energy recap
Crude oil prices continued their downward momentum with Brent crude falling to nearly a three-month-low at $72.83 per barrel. (AFP)
Updated 03 November 2018

Strategies behind the Iran sanctions — Arab News' weekly energy recap

Strategies behind the Iran sanctions — Arab News' weekly energy recap

RIYADH: Crude oil prices continued their downward momentum with Brent crude falling to nearly a three-month-low at $72.83 per barrel.
WTI also fell to $63.14 per barrel. The commitment of Saudi Arabia and Russia to offset any shortages after the imposition of sanctions on Iran have eased oil prices. Noticeably, Saudi Arabia increased its production to 10.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in October and is capable of increasing output further if needed. Russia produced at a post-Soviet-era peak of 11.36 million bpd in September. This news has comforted the market with the knowledge that any supply shortages from Iran will be effectively met.
Tomorrow, the US economic sanctions on Iran will come into force. These sanctions were supposed to take Iranian oil exports to zero amid the “highest level of economic sanctions” imposed. However, the US granted waivers to Iran’s top buyers, so that Iran will still be able to legally export at least one million bpd.
Even prior to the sanctions, Iran’s crude oil exports went down from 2.2 million bpd to 1.5 million bpd, as most of Iran’s customers have found other suppliers. Despite the US waivers, many nations will continue to look for other options to purchase the crude oil they need, as the US waivers could be withdrawn with little warning.
It is not clear yet if Iranian condensate will be included in this latest round of sanctions. It was not included during the 2012 sanctions because the Obama administration did not consider condensates to be crude oil. Much of Iranian condensate is from natural gas processing plants. There has been no Trump administration policy statement on whether Iranian condensates will be treated the same way as crude oil.
Any crude oil Iran can sell will be some relief for the country as it is running out of storage. Early last month, Iran was forced to move two million barrels of crude into a bonded storage tank at the port of Dalian in northeast China. It used a similar tactic during previous US sanctions. Such a ploy is necessary so that Iran can maintain enough storage for condensate from its natural gas fields. Otherwise, they would be forced to shutter natural gas production. That would cause severe unrest among its population since natural gas is used for about 70 percent of Iranian domestic energy consumption, including home heating.
China is the largest importer of Iranian crude. China used to be the largest importer of US shale oil until the outbreak of the US-China trade dispute. Now is the time for China to play its cards, inviting the US to de-escalate the trade dispute if China agrees to buy US crude in place of Iranian barrels. Considering that China’s trade surplus with the US has hit record highs, this could be a win-win situation. The only question is whether the US oil export infrastructure can keep up with the volumes needed. US oil exports have faced some challenges lately, dropping to 1.5 million bpd from a peak of two million bpd.
Another issue, which is also uncertain in regards to the US sanctions, is the small amount of trade of Iranian crude oil which is done through small banks outside the US financial system. Those banks helped Iran to export oil during 2012 sanctions. This is despite the fact that Iranian oil tankers will face huge challenges in securing insurance that is mandated by the refineries’ discharging ports.
Finally, it is unknown if the sanctions will include Iran’s “swap” arrangements with neighboring countries. Iran does oil-gas swaps with Caspian Sea nations. It also does oil swap deals with these countries, so that Tehran can supply northern areas with oil processed at the Tehran, Tabriz, and Arak refineries without having to transport it all the way from wells in the south. In another swap deal, Iraq sends oil from its northern Kirkuk fields to Iran by road, to be refined in Iran.
In return, Iran sends the same amount of crude to Iraq’s southern ports for exports. These swaps are considered an outlet for Iranian crude oil and US sanctions on them could cause considerable disruption.


France insists ‘No’ Canadian takeover of Carrefour

France insists ‘No’ Canadian takeover of Carrefour
Updated 58 sec ago

France insists ‘No’ Canadian takeover of Carrefour

France insists ‘No’ Canadian takeover of Carrefour

PARIS: France insisted on Friday it would not agree to a €16-billion ($19.5 billion) takeover of supermarket giant Carrefour by Canada’s Couche-Tard convenience store chain because it could jeopardize food security, an even more important consideration in the coronavirus pandemic.
“My position is a polite, but clear and definitive ‘No’,” French Economy Minister Bruno Le Maire told BMTV and RMC.
“Food security is a strategic consideration for our country and one does not just hand over one of the large French distributors like that,” Le Maire said.
“Carrefour is the biggest private sector employer in France with nearly 100,000 employees,” he noted, and the group accounts for 20 percent of the food distribution market in the country. On Wednesday, Couche-Tard submitted a nonbinding offer for Carrefour valuing the group at more than €16 billion ($19.5 billion).

FASTFACT

12,300

Carrefour has more than 12,300 stores of various formats in more than 30 countries.

Le Maire made clear immediately that he was not in favor of a deal involving “an essential link in food security for the French, of food sovereignty.”
The government’s reaction caused “surprise” at Carrefour itself, according to sources who said the comments were “premature” given that merger discussions had barely begun.
“We haven’t decided yet whether the interest shown is attractive for us,” one company official said on condition of anonymity.
Carrefour has more than 12,300 stores of various formats in more than 30 countries and in 2019 generated a net profit of €1.3 billion on revenue of €80.7 billion.
It employs 320,000 people worldwide.
Couche-Tard has a worldwide network of more than 14,200 stores and earned a net profit of $2.4 billion on sales of $54 billion in its last complete year.
In the US and several European countries, as well as in Latin America and southeast Asia, it operates under the Circle K and other brands.