Oil rises on expected OPEC cuts, but surging US supply drags

US output has surged by almost a quarter since the start of the year. (Reuters)
Updated 16 November 2018

Oil rises on expected OPEC cuts, but surging US supply drags

  • Prices were mainly supported by expectations OPEC would start withholding supply soon
  • US output has surged by almost a quarter since the start of the year

SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose on Friday amid expectations of supply cuts from OPEC, although record US production dragged.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were at $56.84 per barrel at 0353 GMT, up 38 cents, or 0.7 percent, from their last settlement.
Brent crude oil futures were up 48 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $67.10 per barrel.
Prices were mainly supported by expectations the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would start withholding supply soon, fearing a renewed rout such as in 2014 when prices crashed under the weight of oversupply.
OPEC’s de-facto leader Saudi Arabia wants the cartel and its allies to cut output by about 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd), around 1.5 percent of global supply, sources told Reuters this week.
However, Morgan Stanley warned a cut by the Middle East dominated producer group may not have the desired effect.
“The main oil price benchmarks — Brent and WTI — are both light-sweet crudes and reflect this glut,” the US bank said.
“OPEC production cuts are usually implemented by removing medium and heavier barrels from the market but that does not address the oversupply of light-sweet.”
Due to the structural oversupply that has emerged in the market from record production by many countries, Morgan Stanley said that “OPEC cuts are inherently temporary (because) all they can do is shift production from one period to another.”
While OPEC considers withholding supply, US crude oil production reached another record last week, at 11.7 million bpd, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data published on Thursday.
US output has surged by almost a quarter since the start of the year.
The record output meant US crude oil stocks posted the biggest weekly build in nearly two years.
Crude inventories soared 10.3 million barrels in the week to Nov. 9 to 442.1 million barrels, the highest level since early December 2017.
This surge contributed to oil prices falling by around a quarter since early October, taking many by surprise.
“Oil bulls, us included, have capitulated and we no longer see oil climbing to $95 per barrel next year,” Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a note.
While sentiment has turned bearish, some analysts warn that 2019 could be tighter than expected.
“We expect 2019 oil demand to reach 101.1 million bpd,” natural resources research and investment firm Goehring & Rozencwajg said, up from just under 100 million bpd this year.
At the same time, the firm said production outside North America was set to disappoint.
Add OPEC’s expected supply cuts, and Goehring & Rozencwajg said “those investors who are able to adopt a contrarian stance ... and stomach the volatility ... are being presented with an excellent investment opportunity” to buy into oil after the recent slump.
Bank of America agreed, saying “we believe oil is oversold and will likely bounce up from the current levels, as OPEC+ dials back production in December.”


BT warns UK that banning Huawei too fast could cause outages

Updated 13 July 2020

BT warns UK that banning Huawei too fast could cause outages

  • Prime Minister Boris Johnson is due to decide this week whether to impose tougher restrictions on Huawei
  • British PM in January granted Huawei a limited role in the 5G network

LONDON: BT CEO Philip Jansen urged the British government on Monday not to move too fast to ban China’s Huawei from the 5G network, cautioning that there could be outages and even security issues if it did.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is due to decide this week whether to impose tougher restrictions on Huawei, after intense pressure from the United States to ban the Chinese telecoms behemoth from Western 5G networks.
Johnson in January defied President Donald Trump and granted Huawei a limited role in the 5G network, but the perception that China did not tell the whole truth over the coronavirus crisis and a row over Hong Kong has changed the mood in London.
“If you are to try not to have Huawei at all, ideally we would want seven years and we could probably do it in five,” Jansen told BBC radio.
Asked what the risks would be if telecoms operators were told to do it in less than five years, Jansen said: “We need to make sure that any change of direction does not lead to more risk in the short term.”
“If we get to a situation where things need to go very, very fast, then you are into a situation where potentially service for 24 million BT Group mobile customers is put into question — outages,” he said.
In what some have compared to the Cold War antagonism with the Soviet Union, the United States is worried that 5G dominance is a milestone toward Chinese technological supremacy that could define the geopolitics of the 21st century.
The United States says Huawei is an agent of the Chinese Communist State and cannot be trusted.
Huawei, the world’s biggest producer of telecoms equipment, has said the United States wants to frustrate its growth because no US company could offer the same range of technology at a competitive price.