Why Huawei arrest deepens conflict between US and China

Why Huawei arrest deepens conflict between US and China
In this undated photo released by Huawei, Huawei's chief financial officer Meng Wanzhou is seen in a portrait photo. (AP)
Updated 07 December 2018

Why Huawei arrest deepens conflict between US and China

Why Huawei arrest deepens conflict between US and China
  • Washington has been pushing other countries not to buy the equipment from Huawei, arguing that the company may be working stealthily for Beijing’s spymasters
  • British Telecom said this week that it would stop using Huawei equipment in its 5G network, the BBC reported, and US lawmakers have lobbied Canada’s prime minister to freeze out the Chinese supplier

WASHINGTON: The dramatic arrest of a Chinese telecommunications executive has driven home why it will be so hard for the Trump administration to resolve its deepening conflict with China.
In the short run, the arrest of Huawei’s chief financial officer heightened skepticism about the trade truce that Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping reached last weekend in Buenos Aires, Argentina. On Thursday, US stock markets tumbled on fears that the 90-day cease-fire won’t last, before regaining most of their losses by the close of trading.
But the case of an executive for a Chinese company that’s been a subject of US national security concerns carries echoes well beyond tariffs or market access. Washington and Beijing are locked in a clash over which of the world’s two largest economies will command economic and political dominance for decades to come.
“It’s a much broader issue than just a trade dispute,” said Amanda DeBusk, chair of the international trade practice at Dechert LLP. “It pulls in: Who is going to be the world leader essentially.”
The Huawei executive, Meng Wanzhou, was detained by Canadian authorities in Vancouver as she was changing flights Saturday — the same day that Trump and Xi met at the Group of 20 summit in Argentina and produced a cease-fire in their trade war. The Globe and Mail newspaper, citing law enforcement sources, reported that Meng is suspected of trying to evade US sanctions on Iran. She faces extradition to the United States, and a bail hearing was set for Friday.
The British bank HSBC is cooperating with US authorities in its investigation, people familiar with the matter said Thursday.
Huawei, the world’s biggest supplier of network gear used by phone and Internet companies, has long been seen as a front for spying by the Chinese military or security services, whose cyber-spies are widely acknowledged as highly skilled. A US National Security Agency cybersecurity adviser, Rob Joyce, last month accused Beijing of violating a 2015 agreement with the US to halt electronic theft of intellectual property.
Other nations are increasingly being forced to choose between Chinese and US suppliers for next-generation “5G” wireless technology. Washington has been pushing other countries not to buy the equipment from Huawei, arguing that the company may be working stealthily for Beijing’s spymasters.
Beijing protested Meng’s arrest but signaled that it doesn’t want to disrupt progress toward settling its trade dispute with the Trump administration. Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesman Gao Feng said China is confident it can reach a deal during the 90 days that Trump agreed to suspend a scheduled increase in US import taxes on $200 billion worth of Chinese products.
US national security adviser John Bolton told NPR that he knew of the pending arrest in advance. He noted that there has been much concern about the suspicion that Chinese firms like Huawei use stolen US intellectual property.
In the view of the United States and many outside analysts, China has embarked on an aggressive drive to overtake America’s dominance in technology and global economic leadership. According to analysts, China has deployed predatory tactics, from forcing American and other foreign companies to hand over trade secrets in exchange for access to the Chinese market to engaging in cyber-theft.
Washington also regards Beijing’s ambitious long-term development plan, “Made in China 2025,” as a scheme to dominate such fields as robotics and electric vehicles by unfairly subsidizing Chinese companies and discriminating against foreign competitors.
In addition to Trump’s tariffs, the administration is tightening regulations on high-tech exports to China. It’s also making it harder for Chinese firms to invest in US companies or to buy American technology in such cutting-edge areas as robotics, artificial intelligence and virtual reality.
Earlier this year, the United States nearly drove Huawei’s biggest Chinese rival, ZTE Corp., out of business for selling equipment to North Korea and Iran in violation of US sanctions. But Trump issued a reprieve, possibly in part because US tech companies are major suppliers of the Chinese giant and would also have been scorched. ZTE got off with paying a $1 billion fine, changing its board and management and agreeing to let American regulators monitor its operations.
The US and Chinese tech industries depend on each other so much for components that “it is very hard to decouple the two without punishing US companies, without shooting ourselves in the foot,” said Adam Segal, cyberspace analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Dean Garfield, president of the US Information Technology Industry Council trade group, said innovation by US companies often depends utterly on product development and testing by Chinese partners, not to mention component suppliers.
British Telecom said this week that it would stop using Huawei equipment in its 5G network, the BBC reported, and US lawmakers have lobbied Canada’s prime minister to freeze out the Chinese supplier. New Zealand and Australia already have.  Other, less wealthy nations are concerned less about spying and more about low prices, which play to Huawei’s advantage.
Both Huawei and ZTE have not only been barred from use by US government agencies and contractors; they have also been mostly locked out of the American market. A 2012 report by the House Intelligence Committee report urged US businesses to avoid their products and called for blocking all mergers or acquisitions involving them.
And nearly a year ago, AT&T pulled out of a deal to sell Huawei smartphones.
“There is ample evidence to suggest that no major Chinese company is independent of the Chinese government and Communist Party — and Huawei, which China’s government and military tout as a ‘national champion’ is no exception,” Sens. Mark Warner, D-Virginia, and Marco Rubio, R-Fla., wrote in October to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. They urged him to keep Huawei off Canada’s next-generation network.
Priscilla Moriuchi, a former East Asia specialist at National Security Agency now with the cybersecurity firm Recorded Future, said both ZTE and Huawei are wedded to China’s military and political leadership.
“The threat from these companies lies in their access to critical Internet backbone infrastructure,” she said.
“No matter what happens in the short term, (the arrest of Huawei’s CFO) is a symptom of a long-term technology clash,” said Derek Scissors, a China specialist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. “We’re not going to deal that away in 90 days.”
Scissors said he doubts that China will change its tech policies. Beijing must develop innovative technologies to keep its economy growing as its labor force ages and it confronts a huge stockpile of debt. Yet its political and economic system — which promotes inefficient state-owned companies at the expense of nimbler private ones — discourages innovation.
“I don’t see a way out of this,” Scissors said.
Likewise, Rod Hunter, an international economic official in President George W. Bush’s White House and a partner at law firm Baker McKenzie, said, “I’m skeptical that the Chinese are going to want to say ‘uncle.’ ” US and Chinese officials are “trying to tackle a problem that is going to take years, maybe a decade, to resolve.”


Bahrain expects $3.2bn deficit in 2021, 5% economic growth

Bahrain expects $3.2bn deficit in 2021, 5% economic growth
Updated 03 March 2021

Bahrain expects $3.2bn deficit in 2021, 5% economic growth

Bahrain expects $3.2bn deficit in 2021, 5% economic growth
  • Bahrain’s economy contracted by 5.4% last year, the IMF estimated, as the COVID-19 pandemic hurt vital sectors such as energy and tourism
  • The tiny Gulf state, which based the 2021-2022 budget on an oil price assumption of $50 a barrel, expects the economy to grow 5% this year

DUBAI: Bahrain expects to post a deficit of 1.2 billion dinars ($3.20 billion) in 2021, state news agency BNA said, citing the finance ministry.
The oil-producing Gulf state projected a budget of 3.6 billion dinars for 2021 with revenues expected to amount to 2.4 billion dinars, BNA said.
For next year, total expenditure is estimated at 3.57 billion dinars, against total revenues of 2.46 billion dinars, resulting in a slightly lower deficit of 1.1 billion dinars.
Bahrain’s economy contracted by 5.4% last year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated, as the COVID-19 pandemic hurt vital sectors such as energy and tourism.
The tiny Gulf state, which based the 2021-2022 budget on an oil price assumption of $50 a barrel, expects the economy to grow 5% this year, BNA said late on Tuesday.
Sovereign wealth fund Mumtalakat will double its contributions to government revenues, said the agency, as Bahrain seeks to boost non-oil revenues.
Bahrain has accumulated a large pile of debt since the 2014-2015 oil price shock. In 2018 it received a $10 billion financial aid program from Gulf allies that helped it avoid a credit crunch.
BNA cited Finance and Economy Minister Sheikh Salman bin Khalifa Al-Khalifa as saying that the country remains committed to achieving the objectives of the fiscal balance program — a set of fiscal reforms linked to the financial aid.
“This budget makes clear Bahrain’s continued commitment to the Fiscal Balance Program, despite the unprecedented challenges of COVID-19, with core government expenditure remaining under tight control,” the minister was quoted as saying.
Public debt rose to 133% of GDP last year from 102% in 2019, the IMF has said, cautioning that the country needs to reduce government debt once economic recovery from the coronavirus crisis firms up.


Theeb Rent-a-Car to list 30% of shares in IPO this month

Theeb Rent-a-Car to list 30% of shares in IPO this month
Updated 03 March 2021

Theeb Rent-a-Car to list 30% of shares in IPO this month

Theeb Rent-a-Car to list 30% of shares in IPO this month

RIYADH: Theeb Rent-a-Car, a Riyadh-based car rental company, plans to float 30 percent of its share capital in an initial public offering (IPO) later this month.

The company issued an IPO prospectus last month to the Saudi Stock Exchange (Tadawul), in which it outlined the many factors that enable it to compete with its current and potential competitors and the factors it sees for its future growth.

The Saudi Capital Market Authority (CMA) last October approved Theeb’s request to offer a 30 percent stake as part of its IPO, representing 12.90 million shares on Tadawul.

The company’s strategy is to continue seeking growth in the car rental services sector by opening new branches, whether at airports, inside cities, or in new mega projects in which the need for car rental is likely to increase.

According to Argaam, Theeb Rent a Car reported a net profit of SR41.9 million ($3.97 million) for the first nine months of 2020, an increase of 8 percent on the same period in 2019.

Short-term leasing accounted for 44.8 percent of revenue, followed by long-term leasing (30.2 percent) and used car sales (25 percent).

Offering daily, weekly and monthly rental services, it operates through 48 outlets across the Kingdom. With 264,131 customers as of March 2020 – a 3 percent year-on-year increase – Theeb has an 8.8 percent share of the short-term car leasing market. It competes with the likes of Al WAFAQ, with a 6.9 percent market share, followed by Budget Saudi (6.9 percent), Arabian Hala (4.6 percent), Key Car Rental (3.5 percent) and SEERA (3.2 percent).
 


Own goal? Shaky finances ruin China’s dream to be a global football power

Jiangsu FC on Sunday said they had
Jiangsu FC on Sunday said they had "ceased operations" — just three months after winning the Chinese Super League. (AFP/File Photo)
Updated 02 March 2021

Own goal? Shaky finances ruin China’s dream to be a global football power

Jiangsu FC on Sunday said they had "ceased operations" — just three months after winning the Chinese Super League. (AFP/File Photo)
  • Jiangsu FC on Sunday said they had "ceased operations" — just three months after winning the Chinese Super League

SHANGHAI: Five years ago, China under President Xi Jinping pledged to become a football power by 2050. But the financial collapse of the newly crowned Chinese champions raises fresh questions over that lofty goal.
Jiangsu FC on Sunday said they had "ceased operations" — just three months after winning the Chinese Super League — in a move described as "shocking" by state media.
After rushing in to curry favour with Xi and the Communist Party, burnt investors are retreating again and last year 16 teams pulled out of Chinese football. More are set to follow.
It is a far cry from when the Super League broke the Asian transfer record five times in less than a year, culminating in Chelsea midfielder Oscar joining Shanghai SIPG for 60 million euros in January 2017.
Argentine striker Carlos Tevez was lured by Shanghai Shenhua in the same transfer window on reported wages of 730,000 euros a week, the highest in the world.
But state-run Xinhua news agency said this week that soaring salaries and transfer fees, as clubs vied to outspend each other, had created "a bubble" that is now bursting.
Citing Chinese Football Association statistics, Xinhua said average expenditure in the 2018 season for the Super League's 16 clubs was about 1.1 billion yuan ($170 million), against average income of 686 million yuan.
"The CSL club expenditure is about 10 times higher than South Korea's K League and three times higher than Japan's J-League," CFA president Chen Xuyuan said in December, when salary caps were announced.

Journalist Ma Dexing said that in 30 years covering Chinese football he has seen more than 200 clubs close, indicating a wider problem beyond the current crisis and the coronavirus pandemic, which delayed the Super League for months last year and forced it behind closed doors.
Tianjin Tigers, a Super League mainstay since its founding in 2004, are expected to dissolve within days and Hebei FC's parent company is drowning in debt.
"The fundamental reason is that the foundation of Chinese professional football is too weak," Ma, who has 1.5 million followers on China's Twitter-like Weibo platform, wrote in a column.
Clubs are built and run by companies which have little connection to the communities where they are based, Ma explained.
"Therefore the survival of China's professional clubs directly depends on the economic situation of the enterprise or company," he wrote.
"Once the company or enterprise has problems, the club ceases to exist."
That's what happened to Jiangsu FC, who were until recently called Jiangsu Suning, named after their backers.
The Suning conglomerate, which also owns Serie A leaders Inter Milan, is in financial peril and has cut the team loose.
A recent CFA order for clubs to drop sponsors from their official names -- supposedly to help foster a deeper footballing culture -- was the "last straw" for some investors, the Beijing News said.

Speaking to AFP last year, CFA secretary-general Liu Yi said a healthy Super League was central to China's football ambitions, which include hosting and even winning a World Cup.
Concerned about clubs' high spending and the lack of opportunities for Chinese players, the CFA imposed a 100 percent transfer tax in 2017 on incoming foreigners, plus recent salary and investment caps.
The Shanghai Observer said clubs must abandon single-owner models in favour of multiple stakeholders including "government, enterprises, communities and even individuals".
"Super League clubs cannot only rely on blood transfusions from their parent company but must attract more sponsorship, match-day income (and improve) transfer market operations, etc.," it said in an opinion piece.
Liu told AFP that China remains committed to its ambitious long-term plans, pointing out that foreign stars including Oscar, Paulinho and Marouane Fellaini remain in the Super League.
But the short term is uncertain.
A more frugal Super League is expected to kick off in the spring but with coronavirus concerns persisting, the CFA is yet to announce a start date. Given Jiangsu and Tianjin's problems, it's also unclear which teams will be involved.
Meanwhile, the men's national side has moved up just five places in the FIFA rankings since China revealed its football dreams in 2016. They are now 75th, just above war-ravaged Syria.
China has reached only one World Cup, in 2002, when they failed to score a goal or win a point in their three group games.


Aramco CEO sees improvement in demand for oil in 2021 

Amin Nasser, president and chief executive of Saudi Aramco. (CERAWeek)
Amin Nasser, president and chief executive of Saudi Aramco. (CERAWeek)
Updated 02 March 2021

Aramco CEO sees improvement in demand for oil in 2021 

Amin Nasser, president and chief executive of Saudi Aramco. (CERAWeek)
  • Amin Nasser also warns certain job types might not return after ‘biggest crisis in a century’
  • Current oil demand is at 94 million barrels, compared with pre-pandemic levels of 100 million

DUBAI: Amin Nasser, president and CEO of Saudi Aramco, sees an improvement in demand for oil this year, especially in the second half, but he is worried about the risk of a “jobless recovery” for the global economy.

Speaking virtually at CERAWeek, an annual energy conference organized by the information and insights company IHS Markit in Houston, Texas, Nasser said there has already been “quite an improvement” in oil demand compared to the drastic reductions during the pandemic lockdowns last year, especially in China and East Asia. 

“Indian demand is almost the same as pre-COVID,” he told oil market expert Daniel Yergin.

“There has been an impact that we see in the West and the US. But with the rapid deployment of vaccines, we are seeing good cause for optimism and recovery in demand.”

Current oil demand is at 94 million barrels, compared with pre-pandemic levels of 100 million, and Nasser expected this to rise to 99 million barrels by the end of the year. 

“I see demand and the market improving from here, especially in the second half of this year,” he said.

But Nasser said he expected “harsh realities” as a result of the economic damage from the pandemic, which he described as the “biggest crisis in a century” for the oil industry.

“There has been a huge impact on small- and medium-sized businesses, and more on employment,” Nasser said. “Rapid technology advances were already having an impact on jobs, especially low-skill repetitive-type jobs, reducing jobs and creating inequality in the market in different parts of the world.

“Today we are seeing a recovery taking place and usually this is linked to job creation and higher employment. My big worry over the long term is a jobless recovery where certain jobs are not going to return.”

Nasser said Aramco, the world’s biggest oil company, used risk-management systems to help it respond quickly to the pandemic, which also significantly accelerated its use of digital and remote operating processes.

During the same CERAWeek forum, the CEO of US energy firm Chevron Corp., Mike Wirth, said the key lesson learned from the crisis was the “essential nature” of the oil business. 

Despite the unprecedented shock to oil markets, he said demand destruction only amounted to about 9 percent: “This demonstrates how important our industry is to the world economy.”


Saudi Aramco, Chevron chiefs see global oil demand recovery

Saudi Aramco, Chevron chiefs see global oil demand recovery
Updated 02 March 2021

Saudi Aramco, Chevron chiefs see global oil demand recovery

Saudi Aramco, Chevron chiefs see global oil demand recovery
  • Amin Nasser says global demand could reach 99 million barrels per day in 2022

Global oil demand is recovering and could return to around pre-pandemic levels next year, the chief executive of Saudi Aramco told an oil and gas conference on Tuesday.
Global demand for oil is likely to recover from the second half of the year and could reach 99 million barrels per day (bpd)in 2022, Amin Nasser said at IHS Markit's online CERAWeek conference.


Diesel demand has recovered globally due to door-to-door deliveries, though jet fuel lags as people avoid long flights, said Chevron CEO Michael Wirth, who spoke on a panel with Nasser.
Oil demand improving in China, India and East Asia, with vaccine deployment as "cause for optimism" in the West, Nasser said.