Survey of economists: US recession unlikely within 12 months

The NABE survey results reflect a collective belief that some of the US economy’s momentum is fading. (Getty Images/AFP)
Updated 28 January 2019

Survey of economists: US recession unlikely within 12 months

  • The survey results being released Monday reflect a collective belief that some of the economy’s momentum is fading
  • Most of the economists say President Donald Trump’s economic policies have done little to affect their businesses’ plans

WASHINGTON: A majority of business economists foresee no recession in the United States within the next 12 months but do predict a slowdown in growth this year.
A survey by the National Association for Business Economics finds that nearly two-thirds of respondents think the economy will keep growing this year in what would become the longest expansion on record in US history at more than 10 years.
Still, the survey results being released Monday reflect a collective belief that some of the economy’s momentum is fading. Compared with the NABE’s previous survey in October, for example, a smaller proportion of economists said their companies’ sales were rising. And fewer expect profit growth to increase. Corporate investments in new equipment has also cooled.
Most of the economists say President Donald Trump’s economic policies have done little to affect their businesses’ plans. An overwhelming majority — 84 percent — say Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, which sharply reduced the burden on corporations, failed to influence their companies’ hiring or investment outlooks. A nearly equal proportion of respondents (77 percent) indicated that Trump’s trade policies haven’t affected their companies’ plans for hiring, pricing or investment.
The results fit a broader pattern. The economy appears to be slowing as a dose of stimulus from Trump’s tax cuts has been fading. Job growth has been steady, but the stock market has stumbled and global growth has deteriorated.
Home sales have weakened, and 2019 began with a blast of nervous uncertainty as the federal government endured what became a 35-day partial shutdown.
The NABE survey, which has been conducted quarterly since 1982, was based on responses from 106 economists who are employed by companies or industry trade associations.


Sharjah sells $1bn sukuk

Updated 03 June 2020

Sharjah sells $1bn sukuk

  • Gulf states seek to bolster finances hit by pandemic and historic slide in oil prices

DUBAI: Sharjah, the third-largest emirate of the UAE, sold $1 billion in seven-year sukuk, or Islamic bonds, on Tuesday, according to a document from one of the banks arranging the deal.

The debt sale comes as several governments in the Gulf seek to bolster their finances to face the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and a historic slide in oil prices.

Sharjah set the final spread at 245 basis points (bps) over midswaps for the sukuk, which are Islamic sharia-compliant bonds, according to the document seen by Reuters.

It tightened the spread by 30 bps from where it began marketing the notes earlier on Tuesday.

Sharjah, rated Baa2 by Moody’s ratings agency and BBB by S&P, is a relatively frequent issuer of US dollar Islamic bonds.

HSBC was hired as global coordinator for the transaction. Other banks on the deal were Bank ABC, Dubai Islamic Bank, Gulf International Bank, Mashreqbank and Sharjah Islamic Bank.

In May, the emirate raised 2 billion dirhams ($545 million) in privately placed one-year sukuk to support its economy during the coronavirus pandemic, according to a statement by Bank of Sharjah, which arranged that deal.

“Issued as 12 month dirham-denominated paper in several tranches, the Sharjah Liquidity Support Mechanism (SLSM) sukuk represents the first rated short term local currency tradeable instrument in the UAE, which can be used for liquidity management by banks,” the Sharjah Finance Department said in a statement on Tuesday, confirming that deal. It said that it was a first tranche and that further tranches with one or more other banks were expected to expand the SLSM to 4 billion dirhams.

S&P Global Ratings in April revised its outlook on the emirate to negative from stable due to lower oil prices and the impact of the new coronavirus.

“Although we expect GDP growth to recover in 2021, lower-for-longer oil prices and a protracted lockdown period could pressure the emirate’s fiscal position,” the agency said.