Economic growth in Kuwait to strengthen on the back of oil prices: IMF

Kuwait announced a 2019/20 budget that included a 4.7 percent rise in spending to 22.5 billion dinars ($74.15 billion). (AFP)
Updated 29 January 2019

Economic growth in Kuwait to strengthen on the back of oil prices: IMF

  • Inflation rate is expected to rise in 2019–20 to about 2.5 percent as deflationary factors seen in 2018 unwind
  • Last week, Kuwait announced a 2019/20 budget that included a 4.7 percent rise in spending to 22.5 billion dinars

DUBAI: The International Monetary Fund said on Monday Kuwait’s non-oil growth is projected to increase to about 3.5 percent in 2020, from 2.5 percent last year, as higher oil prices will boost capital spending.
“The mission has assumed an average oil price of $57 per barrel in 2019–20, increasing to $60 per barrel over the medium term,” the IMF said in a statement at the end of an official staff visit to the OPEC member.
“As capital project implementation accelerates, non-oil growth is projected to increase to about 3.5 percent in 2020.”
The IMF also said the recent OPEC decision to cut production is expected to hold oil output to 2 percent growth in 2019, which could rebound to 2.5 percent in 2020 given spare capacity.
The inflation rate is expected to rise in 2019–20 to about 2.5 percent as deflationary factors seen in 2018 unwind, the fund said.
It said higher oil revenues and investment income helped improve the overall fiscal balance in 2017/18 to an estimated surplus of 8 percent of GDP, which will reach almost 12 percent of GDP in fiscal year 2018/19.
Delays to the passage of a new debt law have left the government unable to issue debt since October 2017, forcing it to draw on the state General Reserve Fund for financing, including to repay maturing debt, the IMF said.
“Continued fiscal consolidation will be needed to reduce financing needs over the medium term,” the Fund added.
Last week, Kuwait announced a 2019/20 budget that included a 4.7 percent rise in spending to 22.5 billion dinars ($74.15 billion). Salaries and subsidies accounted for 71 percent of the budget.


Innovation jobs flocking to a handful of US cities

Updated 09 December 2019

Innovation jobs flocking to a handful of US cities

  • Economists fear job clustering could have a “destructive” influence on society

WASHINGTON: A new analysis of where “innovation” jobs are being created in the US paints a stark portrait of a divided economy where the industries seen as key to future growth cluster in a narrowing set of places.

Divergence in job growth, incomes and future prospects between strong-performing cities and the rest of the country is an emerging focus of political debate and economic research. It is seen as a source of social stress, particularly since President Donald Trump tapped the resentment of left-behind areas in his 2016 presidential campaign.

Research from the Brookings Institution released on Monday shows the problem cuts deeper than many thought. Even cities that have performed well in terms of overall employment growth, such as Dallas, are trailing in attracting workers in 13 industries with the most productive private sector jobs.

Between 2005 and 2017, industries such as chemical manufacturing, satellite telecommunications and scientific research flocked to about 20 cities, led by well-established standouts San Francisco, Seattle, San Jose, Boston and San Diego, the study found. Combined, these mostly coastal cities captured an additional 6 percent of “innovation” jobs — some 250,000 positions.

Companies in those industries tend to benefit from being close to each other, with the better-educated employees they target also attracted to urban amenities.

Brookings Institution economist Mark Muro said he fears the trend risks becoming “self-reinforcing and destructive” as the workforce separates into a group of highly productive and high-earning metro areas and everywhere else.

Even though expensive housing, high wages, and congestion have prompted some tech companies to open offices outside of Silicon Valley, those moves have not been at scale. Most US metro areas are either losing innovation industry jobs outright or gaining no share, Muro wrote.

Over this decade, “a clear hierarchy of economic performance based on innovation capacity had become deeply entrenched,” Muro and co-author Rob Atkinson, president of the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, wrote in the report. Across the 13 industries they studied, workers in the upper echelon of cities were about 50 percent more productive than in others.

For much of the post-World War Two period labor was more mobile, and the types of industries driving the economy did not cluster so intensely, a trend that started reversing around 1980.

Concerns that the US is separating effectively into two economies has sparked support for localized efforts to spread the benefits of economic growth.

The Federal Reserve has flagged it as a possible risk to overall growth, and some of the presidential candidates running for office in 2020 have rolled out proposals to address it. One aim of Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on imports from China and elsewhere is to revive ailing areas of the country.