Global oil supply will swamp demand in 2019, warns IEA

Global oil supply will swamp demand in 2019, warns IEA
Despite sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, and a concerted effort by OPEC countries, led by Russia, a glut in global production looks set to continue to inflate prices. Above, the Caspian Galaxy at anchor near Punto Fijo, Venezuela. (Reuters)
Updated 14 February 2019

Global oil supply will swamp demand in 2019, warns IEA

Global oil supply will swamp demand in 2019, warns IEA
  • Despite a concerted plan to cut output by OPEC, production forecasts remain unchanged
  • The IEA raised its estimate for growth in crude supply from outside OPEC to 1.8 million bpd in 2019

LONDON: The global oil market will struggle this year to absorb fast-growing crude supply from outside OPEC, even with the group’s production cuts and US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report on Wednesday.
The IEA left its demand growth forecast for 2019 unchanged from its last report in January at 1.4 million barrels per day.
“It is supported by lower prices and the start-up of petrochemical projects in China and the US. Slowing economic growth will, however, limit any upside,” the agency said.
The IEA raised its estimate for growth in crude supply from outside OPEC to 1.8 million bpd in 2019, from 1.6 million bpd previously.
The agency also lowered its forecast for demand for OPEC crude, production of which the group has pledged to cut by 800,000 bpd this year as part of an agreement with Russia and other non-OPEC producers, such as Oman and Kazakhstan.
The “call” on OPEC crude is now forecast at 30.7 million bpd in 2019, down from the IEA’s last estimate of 31.6 million bpd in January.
US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela have choked off supply of the heavier, more sour crude that tends to yield larger volumes of higher-value distillates, as opposed to gasoline. The move has created disruption for some refiners, but has not led to a dramatic increase in the oil price in 2019.
“In terms of crude oil quantity, markets may be able to adjust after initial logistical dislocations (from Venezuela’s sanctions),” the Paris-based IEA said.
“Stocks in most markets are currently ample and ... there is more spare production capacity available.”
Venezuela’s production has almost halved in two years to 1.17 million bpd, as an economic crisis, exacerbated by hyperinflation, has decimated its energy industry. US sanctions, meanwhile have crippled its exports.
Brent crude futures have risen 20 percent in 2019 to around $63 a barrel, but most of that increase took place in early January. The price has largely plateaued since then, in spite of the subsequent imposition of US sanctions.
“Oil prices have not increased alarmingly because the market is still working off the surpluses built up in the second half of 2018,” the IEA said.
“In quantity terms, in 2019, the US alone will grow its crude oil production by more than Venezuela’s current output. In quality terms, it is more complicated. Quality matters.”