OPEC + Group Compliance Remains Intact Despite Dwindling US Market Share

OPEC President UAE Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei (C) speaks as he sits with Minister of Energy of Russia Alexander Novak (left) and OPEC Secretary General Mohammed Sanusi Barkindo (r) of Nigeria during a meeting at the headquarters of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) with OPEC members and non-OPEC members in Vienna, Austria on December 7, 2018. JOE KLAMAR / AFP
Updated 03 April 2019

OPEC + Group Compliance Remains Intact Despite Dwindling US Market Share

Riyadh, March 31, 2019 (Gulf Intelligence) – OPEC exports to the US are likely to continue trending downwards, according to the majority (88%) of energy executives polled in a Gulf Intelligence GIQ survey, ahead of the inaugural Gulf Intelligence Saudi Arabia Energy Forum in Riyadh on April 8th.

OPEC crude exports to the US fell to a 5-year low in January while US stockpiles climbed to 3.6 million barrels in February,according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). US production has increased a staggering 140% since 2008. Some analysts forecast that the country could be a net exporter of crude and refined products by as soon as 2020. US output hit 12 million b/d in February, contrary to previous expectations that this level would not be reached until the second half of the year.

Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer within OPEC, has seen its crude exports to the US drop steadily over recent years, from 1.361 million b/d in 2012 to 949,000 b/d by 2017 and to about 500,000 b/d by the end of last year. The US has in fact been importing less crude oil altogether—not just less OPEC crude – from 262.8 million b/d per month at the start of 2017 to 226.6 million in October 2018—the last month for which there is data, according to the EIA.

Despite the loss of US market share however, OPEC and its coalition of non-OPEC producers, including Russia, havecontinued with their strong commitment to comply to the output cut deal agreed to in December - namely to trim production collectively by 1.2 million b/d through to at least June 2019. The agreement by the group of 25 producers,known as OPEC +, follows two years of cuts of 1.8 million b/d, which succeeded in reversing a 3-year oil price slide and restored a certain amount of stability to the market.

The strategy has continued to work, with Brent prices holding comfortably in the $60s/bbl range since the start of this year. On March 29, 2019 Brent closed at 68.39 USD/ bbl.

Compliance by the OPEC + coalition in February was almost 90%, up from 83% in January, according to the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC). The JMMC convenes bimonthly to assess the impact production cuts are having on the market. At its last meeting in Baku on March 18th, it decided not to proceed with a full Ministerial Meeting that had been planned for April as market conditions were deemed stable.

“The job of OPEC and its allies is not done yet and the group of oil producers need to stay on course at least until June when the current global cut agreement is due to expire,” H.E. Khalid Al Falih, Minister of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources, Saudi Arabia said in Baku last month.

The JMMC next meets in May ahead of the OPEC Conference meeting on 25 June in Vienna, during which a decision is expected to be taken on production targets for the second half of 2019.

Additional oil price support has come from US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, two major OPEC producers who are currently exempt from the output cut deal. US restrictions on the Venezuelan energy industry have crippled the country’s oil exports, which dropped 40% in the first full month after sanctions were initiated in early February, removing 330,000 b/d of supply from the global market, according to Goldman Sachs. Iran’s exports meanwhile have hovered above 1 million b/d so far this year, having dropped in the past year from a level of 2.5 million in April 2018, a month before the U.S. decided to re-impose sanctions.

The Gulf Intelligence Saudi Arabia Energy Forum, under the patronage of His Excellency Al Falih, takes place at the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC), Riyadh, on April 8th and will gather industry leaders to deliberate the theme of Digital Transformation in the Energy Industry.


Clinical trials to accelerate adoption of new drug treatments in Saudi Arabia

Updated 27 May 2020

Clinical trials to accelerate adoption of new drug treatments in Saudi Arabia

  • Trials are being led locally as an essential means to verify the safety and effectiveness of a new drug
  • Eli Lilly has a major role to play during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic

RIYADH: Clinical trials in Saudi Arabia could speed up the adoption of new drugs locally, a pharmaceutical executive has told Arab News.

“Clinical trials have two very big benefits for the Kingdom. Firstly, they provide data in the long run with respect to safety and efficacy, catered specifically to the Saudi population. Secondly, they impact local investment and build healthcare capabilities,” Managing Director of Eli Lilly Dimitri Livadas said..

Lividas further explained that the clinical trial phase of any new treatment is crucial as it represents the stage between the adoption or rejection of a drug. Working with the Ministry of Health and with a presence in the Kingdom for 42 years, the pharmaceutical company began research trials in the country in 2016, consisting of five pre-marketing activities and three monitoring studies for post-marketing.

Lividas added that the trials are being led locally as an essential means to verify the safety and effectiveness of a new drug before it is put to the market and introduced to patients. The majority of these are focused on diabetes, oncology, immunology, and osteoporosis.

“We genuinely believe that our future is here in Saudi Arabia. We continue to make great progress in having a commercial organization in the Kingdom that is fully staffed by Saudi nationals,” said Lividas.

As a biopharmaceutical company, Eli Lilly has a major role to play during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. It recently announced partnership with AbCellera to develop a treatment for the virus and aims to enter into clinical trials this year.

“I salute the Saudi authorities for their strong measures to contain the spread of COVID-19. I think it is an example to the world on how to do this. I would like to also express my gratitude toward all healthcare professionals who are currently on the frontlines, risking their own health to help others," Lividas said.