Oil rises on stronger financial markets, expectations of extended supply cuts

Global crude oil demand growth could drop below 1 million barrels per day in 2019, energy consultancy FGE said. (AFP)
Updated 11 June 2019

Oil rises on stronger financial markets, expectations of extended supply cuts

  • Crude oil futures on Tuesday were pushed up by a broader lift in financial markets
  • Russia said on Monday it might support an extension of supply cuts that have been in place since January

SINGAPORE: Oil prices rose on Tuesday in line with firmer financial markets and bolstered by expectations that producer group OPEC and its allies will keep withholding supply.
Front-month Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $62.71 at 0630 GMT, 42 cents, or 0.7 percent, above Friday’s close.
US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $53.85 per barrel, 59 cents, or 1.1 percent, above their last settlement.
Prices fell by around 1 percent in the previous session and crude futures are down by some 20 percent from their 2019 peaks in late April, dragged lower by a widespread economic downturn that has started to impact oil consumption.
Traders said crude oil futures on Tuesday were pushed up by a broader lift in financial markets after Beijing eased financing rules to stem an economic downturn.
On the production side, Russia said on Monday it might support an extension of supply cuts that have been in place since January, warning oil prices could fall as low as $30 per barrel if producers supply too much crude.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and some non-affiliated producers including Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, have withheld supplies since the start of the year to prop up prices.
OPEC+ is due to meet in late June or early July to decide output policy for the rest of the year.
“Without OPEC+ adherence to supply discipline in the deteriorating environment prices would drop to $40 in a heartbeat, which suggests the extension deal is a lock,” said Stephen Innes, managing partner at Vanguard Markets.
Energy consultancy FGE said global crude oil demand growth could drop below 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2019, down from previous expectations of 1.3 to 1.4 million bpd.
“This effectively gives us an extra 300,000-400,000 barrels per day of supply,” said FGE chairman Fereidun Fesharaki.
Despite Tuesday’s stronger markets, concerns about the health of the global economy remained.
“With China slowing, the EU sickly and the US data starting to wobble, an economic downturn remains a clear and present danger,” said Innes.


Oil prices surge after attacks hit Saudi output

Updated 16 September 2019

Oil prices surge after attacks hit Saudi output

  • The Houthi attacks hit two Aramco sites and effectively shut down six percent of the global oil supply
  • President Donald Trump said Sunday the US was ‘locked and loaded’ to respond to the attacks

HONG KONG: Oil prices saw a record surge Monday after attacks on two Saudi facilities slashed output in the world’s top producer by half, fueling fresh geopolitical fears as Donald Trump blamed Iran and raised the possibility of a military strike on the country.
Brent futures surged $12 in the first few minutes of business — the most in dollar terms since they were launched in 1988 and representing a jump of nearly 20 percent — while WTI jumped more than $8, or 15 percent.
Both contracts pared the gains but were both still more than 10 percent up.
The attack by Tehran-backed Houthi militia in neighboring Yemen, where a Saudi-led coalition is bogged down in a five-year war, hit two sites owned by state-run giant Aramco and effectively shut down six percent of the global oil supply.
Trump said Sunday the US was “locked and loaded” to respond to the attack, while Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said: “The United States will work with our partners and allies to ensure that energy markets remain well supplied and Iran is held accountable for its aggression.”
Tehran denies the accusations but the news revived fears of a conflict in the tinderbox Middle East after a series of attacks on oil tankers earlier this year that were also blamed on Iran.
“Tensions in the Middle East are rising quickly, meaning this story will continue to reverberate this week even after the knee-jerk panic in oil markets this morning,” said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA.
Trump authorized the release of US supplies from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, while Aramco said more than half of the five million barrels of production lost will be restored by tomorrow.
But the strikes raise concerns about the security of supplies from the world’s biggest producer.
Oil prices had dropped last week after news that Trump had fired his anti-Iran hawkish national security adviser John Bolton, which was seen as paving the way for an easing of tensions in the region.
“One thing we can say with confidence is that if part of the reason for last week’s fall in oil and improvement in geopolitical risk sentiment was the news of John Bolton’s sacking ... and thoughts this was a precursor to some form of rapprochement between Trump and Iran, then it is no longer valid,” said Ray Attrill at National Australia Bank.