OPEC sees lower 2020 demand for its oil, points to surplus

OPEC and its allies last week renewed a supply-cutting pact until March 2020. (AFP)
Updated 12 July 2019

OPEC sees lower 2020 demand for its oil, points to surplus

  • The drop in demand for OPEC crude highlights the sustained boost that OPEC’s policy to support prices
  • OPEC and its allies last week renewed a supply-cutting pact until March 2020

LONDON: OPEC yesterday forecast world demand for its crude will decline next year as rivals pump more, pointing to the return of a surplus despite an OPEC-led pact to restrain supplies.
The drop in demand for OPEC crude highlights the sustained boost that OPEC’s policy to support prices by supply cuts is giving to US shale and other rival sources. This potentially gives US President Donald Trump more room to keep up sanctions on OPEC members Iran and Venezuela.
Giving its first 2020 forecasts in a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said the world would need 29.27 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from its 14 members next year, down 1.34 million bpd from this year.
“US tight crude production is anticipated to continue to grow as new pipelines will allow more Permian crude to flow to the US Gulf Coast export hub,” OPEC said, using another term for shale oil.
In the report OPEC also forecast that world oil demand would rise at the same pace as this year and that the world economy would expand at this year’s pace, despite slower growth in the US and China.
“The 2020 forecast assumes that no further downside risks materialize, particularly that trade-related issues do not escalate further,” OPEC said of the economic outlook. Brexit poses an additional risk, as does a continuation in the current slowdown in manufacturing activity.”
OPEC, Russia and other producers have since Jan. 1 implemented a deal to cut output by 1.2 million bpd. The alliance, known as OPEC+, last week renewed the pact until March 2020 to avoid a build-up of inventories that could hit prices.
Oil pared earlier gains after the report was released, although prices were still trading above $67 a barrel after three Iranian vessels tried to block a British ship in the Strait of Hormuz oil chokepoint.

HIGHLIGHTS

● Demand for OPEC crude to fall 1.34 million bpd in 2020.

● Cites trade disputes, Brexit as economy risks.

● Oil stocks increase, remaining above five-year average. Points to 2020 supply surplus at current OPEC production.

Despite the supply cut, oil has tumbled from April’s 2019 peak above $75, pressured by concerns over the US-China trade dispute and an economic slowdown.
OPEC also oil inventories in developed economies rose in May, suggesting a trend that could raise concern over a possible oil glut.
Stocks in May exceeded the five-year average — a yardstick OPEC watches closely — by 25 million barrels.
OPEC said its oil output in June fell by 68,000 bpd to 29.83 million bpd as US sanctions on Iran boosted the impact of the supply pact.
According to figures OPEC collects from secondary sources, supply from Iran posted the biggest decline, by 142,000 bpd, as Washington tightened the screws on Iranian exports.
Top exporter Saudi Arabia increased output by 126,000 bpd to 9.81 million bpd in June but continued to voluntarily pump less than the supply pact allows it to in order to bolster the market. Nigeria, seeking a higher OPEC quota, posted the group’s largest boost in output.
With 2020 demand for OPEC crude expected to average 29.27 million bpd, OPEC’s report suggests there will be a 2020 supply surplus of over 500,000 bpd if OPEC keeps pumping at June’s rate and other things remain equal.


Emirates trims Boeing shopping list amid 777X delays

Updated 20 November 2019

Emirates trims Boeing shopping list amid 777X delays

  • The Middle East’s largest airline in 2017 signed an initial agreement to buy 40 Boeing 787-10s in a deal worth $15.1 billion
  • But Emirates’s purchases overhaul reduces the order to 30 planes

DUBAI: Emirates Airline on Wednesday slimmed down its purchasing plans with Boeing amid delays in delivering an order of 156 of the new long-range 777X aircraft, substituting instead 30 of its 787-9 Dreamliners.
The Middle East’s largest airline in 2017 signed an initial agreement to buy 40 Boeing 787-10s in a deal worth $15.1 billion, but the overhaul reduces that to 30.
At the same time, Emirates is cutting its 156-strong order of the larger 777X to 126 planes.
The restructuring means that the carrier now has just 156 aircraft ordered from Boeing, compared to 196 previously in both firm orders and initial agreements, an airline spokeswoman confirmed to AFP.
“Emirates reduced its 777X order of 156 to 126 and substituted them with the Dreamliners,” Emirates president Tim Clark told a news conference at the Dubai Airshow.
Boeing said the airline will update its order book “by exercising substitution rights and converting 30 777 airplanes into 30 787-9s.”
Emirates said in a statement that for the 777X, it “will enter into discussions with Boeing over the next few weeks on the status of deliveries.”
Emirates in 2013 signed a $76-billion contract for 150 Boeing 777X twin-engine aircraft, powered by GE’s new GE9X engine, in what was the single largest order by value in the history of US commercial aviation.
The order was subsequently increased to 156 planes.
The 777X was originally scheduled to take off on its first test flight this summer, however its development has been slowed by issues with the engine and Boeing has pushed back the timeframe to early 2021.
The delays also hit as Boeing is in the process of completing changes required by regulators on the 737 MAX, which has been grounded worldwide after two crashes that resulted in 346 deaths.