Oil sets new seven-month low on trade tensions grow

S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 38 cents. (AFP)
Updated 08 August 2019

Oil sets new seven-month low on trade tensions grow

  • Brent crude futures were down 70 cents

LONDON: Oil prices fell further on Wednesday, extending recent heavy losses as deepening US-China trade tensions weighed on the outlook for the global economy and energy demand.

Brent crude futures were down 70 cents, or 1.2 percent, at $58.26 a barrel in early afternoon trade in London, setting a fresh seven-month low. Prices have lost more than 20 percent since hitting their 2019 peak in April.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 38 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $53.25.

Brent has plunged more than 10 percent over the past week after US President Donald Trump said he would slap a 10% tariff on a further $300 billion in Chinese imports from Sept. 1, sending global equity markets into a tailspin.

“The market continues to grow more uncertain about the demand outlook given the deterioration of trade talks between China and the US,” ING analysts said in a note.

The bank lowered its 2019 price outlook, mostly because of demand concerns, forecasting that global oil supplies will exceed consumption in the first half of next year.

FASTFACT

The price of Brent crude has fallen by about 10 percent over the past week.

Trump on Tuesday dismissed fears that the trade row with China could be drawn out further. His comments failed to prevent shares in Asia from falling for an eighth straight session on Wednesday. London’s FTSE 100 gained.

“We believe that the oil market is now in a phase of exaggeration. Demand is not sufficiently weak to justify the current price performance. Assuming there is no recession, oil demand should continue to see robust growth,” Commerzbank said in a note.

Tensions in the Middle East remain high after Iran seized a number of tankers in recent weeks in the Strait of Hormuz, a major chokepoint for oil shipments.

Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih and US Energy Secretary Rick Perry on Tuesday expressed mutual concern over threats targeting freedom of maritime traffic in the Gulf.

“There are concerns that an event could occur at any moment ... the risk might be shifting to the upside in the near term for oil contracts,” said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets.

Elsewhere, data indicating a larger-than-expected drop in US crude stocks offered some support to oil prices after several weeks of large draws on inventories.

Official data from the government’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due on Wednesday.

The EIA on Tuesday lowered its domestic oil growth forecasts for the year after Hurricane Barry disrupted Gulf of Mexico output in July. Production is set to rise by 1.28 million barrels per day to 12.27 million bpd this year.


IMF warns of Asia’s darkening growth outlook as trade war bites

Updated 18 October 2019

IMF warns of Asia’s darkening growth outlook as trade war bites

  • The IMF cut its economic growth forecast for the Asia-Pacific region to 5.0 percent for this year and 5.1 percent for 2020
  • It also slashed China’s growth forecast to 6.1 percent for this year and 5.8 percent for 2020
WASHINGTON: Asian nations face heightening risks to their economic outlooks as the US-China trade war and slumping Chinese demand hurt the world’s fastest-growing region, the International Monetary Fund said on Friday.
In its World Economic Outlook report on Tuesday, the IMF cut its economic growth forecast for the Asia-Pacific region to 5.0 percent for this year and 5.1 percent for 2020 — the slowest pace of expansion since the global financial crisis more than a decade ago.
“Headwinds from global policy uncertainty and growth deceleration in major trading partners are taking a toll on manufacturing, investment, trade, and growth,” Changyong Rhee, director of the IMF’s Asia and Pacific department, said during a news conference at the IMF and World Bank fall meetings.
“Risks are skewed to the downside,” he said, calling on policymakers in the region to focus on near-term fiscal and monetary policy steps to spur growth.
“The intensification in trade tensions between the US and China could further weigh on confidence and financial markets, thereby weakening trade, investment and growth,” he said.
A faster-than-expected slowdown in China’s economic growth could also generate negative spillovers in the region, as many Asian countries have supply chains closely tied to China, he added.
The IMF slashed China’s growth forecast to 6.1 percent for this year and 5.8 percent for 2020, pointing to the impact from the trade conflict and tighter regulation to address excess debt.