Egypt’s headline inflation slows to a four-year low of 8.7% in July

July’s rate defied analysts’ expectations since it followed a fresh round of fuel subsidy cuts that pushed prices up 16 — 30 percent. (File/Shutterstock)
Updated 08 August 2019

Egypt’s headline inflation slows to a four-year low of 8.7% in July

  • Egypt is approaching the end of an IMF-backed economic reform program
  • July’s rate defied analysts’ expectations since it followed a fresh round of fuel subsidy cuts that pushed prices up 16 - 30 percent

CAIRO: Egypt’s annual urban consumer price inflation decreased to 8.7 percent in July from 9.4 percent in June, official statistics agency CAPMAS said on Thursday, its lowest in nearly four years.
Egypt is approaching the end of an IMF-backed economic reform program, which included steep subsidy cuts and a currency devaluation and saw inflation rise to a high of 33 percent in 2017.
July’s rate defied analysts’ expectations since it followed a fresh round of fuel subsidy cuts that pushed prices up 16 - 30 percent.
“The figures are much lower than our expectations but are likely due to the high base effect from last year,” said Radwa El-Swaify, head of research at Pharos Securities Brokerage.
In July 2018, Egypt’s headline inflation rate was 13.5 percent.
“It’s great news for the markets because it reinforces hopes of interest rate cuts in August. I think the central bank now has enough room to restart its monetary easing policy going forward,” said Allen Sandeep, head of research at Naeem Brokerage.
At its last meeting on July 11, the monetary policy committee kept key interest rates on hold at 15.75 percent and 16.75 percent for overnight deposit and lending respectively.
It had last cut its rates in February.


Japan’s households tighten purse strings as sales tax and typhoon hit

Updated 06 December 2019

Japan’s households tighten purse strings as sales tax and typhoon hit

  • Falls in factory output, jobs and retail add to fears of worsening slowdown after Tokyo unveils $122bn stimulus package

TOKYO: Japanese households cut their spending for the first time in almost a year in October as a sales tax hike prompted consumers to rein in expenses and natural disasters disrupted business.

Household spending dropped 5.1 percent in October from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday.

It is the first fall in household spending in 11 months and the biggest fall since March 2016 when spending fell by 5.3 percent. It was also weaker than the median forecast for a 3 percent decline.

That marked a sharp reversal from the 9.5 percent jump in September, the fastest growth on record as consumers rushed to buy goods before the Oct. 1 sales tax hike from 8 percent to 10 percent.

“Not only is the sales tax hike hurting consumer spending but impacts from the typhoon also accelerated the decline in the spending,” said Taro Saito, executive research fellow at NLI Research Institute.

“We expect the economy overall and consumer spending will contract in the current quarter and then moderately pick up January-March, but such recovery won't be strong enough.”

Household spending fell by 4.6 percent in April 2014 when Japan last raised the sales tax to 8 percent from 5 percent. It took more than a year for the sector to return to growth.

Compared with the previous month, household spending fell 11.5 percent in October, the fastest drop since April 2014, a faster decline than the median 9.8 percent forecast.

Analysts said a powerful typhoon in October, which lashed swathes of Japan with heavy rain, also played a factor in the downbeat data. Some shops and restaurants closed during the storm and consumers stayed home.

Separate data also showed the weak state of the economy.

The index of coincident economic indicators, which consists of a range of data including factory output, employment and retail sales data, fell a preliminary 5.6 points to 94.8 in October from the previous month, the lowest reading since February 2013, the Cabinet Office said on Friday.

It was also the fastest pace of decline since March 2011, according to the data.

Real wages adjusted for inflation, meanwhile, edged up for a second straight month in October, but the higher levy and weak global economy raise worries about the prospect for consumer spending and the overall economy.

While the government has sought to offset the hit to consumers through vouchers and tax breaks, there are fears the higher tax could hurt an economy already feeling the pinch from global pressures.

Japan unveiled a $122 billion fiscal package on Thursday to support stalling growth and as policymakers look to sustain activity beyond the 2020 Tokyo Olympics.

A recent spate of weak data, such as exports and factory output, have raised worries about the risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown. The economy grew by an annualized 0.2 percent in the third quarter, the weakest pace in a year.

Analysts expect the economy to shrink in the current quarter due to the sales tax hike.