WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Rocketing tanker rates lead to surprise surge in US crude inventories

In this June 13, 2019 file photo, an oil tanker is on fire in the Sea of Oman. Rising tanker rates has contributed to lower US crude oil exports and surging inventories in the country for the fifth consecutive week. (AP Photo/ISNA, File)
Updated 19 October 2019

WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Rocketing tanker rates lead to surprise surge in US crude inventories

Brent crude trended lower to $59.42 per barrel, while WTI also retreated to $53.78 per barrel.

Weak economic data from China added to concerns about the US-Chinese trade relationship.

However, the big news of the week came from the shipping sector as tanker rates rocketed which contributed to lower US crude oil exports and surging inventories in the country for the fifth consecutive week.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a 9.3 million barrel gain in US crude inventories for the week ended Oct. 11, which was much higher than the market expected.

Even with heavy discounts applied to US shipments, producers struggled to sell their oil because of rising tanker charter costs.

Rates for chartering a supertanker from the US Gulf Coast to Singapore were reported to have hit record highs of more than $17 million and a record $22 million to China.

This trend is also likely to be reflected in US export data for October. Adding to shipping pressures is the fact that some ships are being taken out of service to fit sulfur-reducing scrubbers ahead of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) environmental rules that are set to take effect in January 2020.

It is noteworthy that US producers export most of their oil on a cost and freight (CFR) basis where the seller is required to arrange for the carriage of oil to the final destination port. 

The expected drop in US crude oil exports as a result of spiking tanker rates shows a serious financial fragility in the US crude oil export system.

Although shipping rates for very large crude carriers hit refinery margins, saddling additional premium shipping cost on the refiners, the physical market for oil strengthened further, and trading in Arabian Gulf sour crude grades continued to pick up.

Now the US will be hoping that higher tanker rates will reduce demand for very large crude carriers, which could ease tanker rates. 

However, until then, US shale producers will likely pay more to have their oil shipped to longer-haul destinations such as the Asian market.


US trade offensive takes out WTO as global arbiter

Updated 10 December 2019

US trade offensive takes out WTO as global arbiter

  • Two years after starting to block appointments, the US will finally paralyze the WTO’s Appellate Body
  • Two of three members of Appellate Body exit and leave it unable to issue rulings

BRUSSELS: US disruption of the global economic order reaches a major milestone on Tuesday as the World Trade Organization (WTO) loses its ability to intervene in trade wars, threatening the future of the Geneva-based body.
Two years after starting to block appointments, the United States will finally paralyze the WTO’s Appellate Body, which acts as the supreme court for international trade, as two of three members exit and leave it unable to issue rulings.
Major trade disputes, including the US conflict with China and metal tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, will not be resolved by the global trade arbiter.
Stephen Vaughn, who served as general counsel to the US Trade Representative during Trump’s first two years, said many disputes would be settled in future by negotiations.
Critics say this means a return to a post-war period of inconsistent settlements, problems the WTO’s creation in 1995 was designed to fix.
The EU ambassador to the WTO told counterparts in Geneva on Monday the Appellate Body’s paralysis risked creating a system of economic relations based on power rather than rules.
The crippling of dispute settlement comes as the WTO also struggles in its other major role of opening markets.
The WTO club of 164 has not produced any international accord since abandoning “Doha Round” negotiations in 2015.
Trade-restrictive measures among the G20 group of largest economies are at historic highs, compounded by Trump’s “America First” agenda and the trade war with China.
Phil Hogan, the European Union’s new trade commissioner, said on Friday the WTO was no longer fit for purpose and in dire need of reforms going beyond just fixing the appeals mechanism.
For developed countries, in particular, the WTO’s rules must change to take account of state-controlled enterprises.
In 2017, Japan brought together the United States and the European Union in a joint bid to set new global rules on state subsidies and forced technology transfers.
The US is also pushing to limit the ability of WTO members to grant themselves developing status, which for example gives them longer to implement WTO agreements.
Such “developing countries” include Singapore and Israel, but China is the clear focus.
US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross told Reuters last week the United States wanted to end concessions given to then struggling economies that were no longer appropriate.
“We’ve been spoiling countries for a very, very long time, so naturally they’re pushing back as we try to change things,” he said.
The trouble with WTO reform is that changes require consensus to pass. That includes Chinese backing.
Beijing has published its own reform proposals with a string of grievances against US actions. Reform should resolve crucial issues threatening the WTO’s existence, while preserving the interests of developing countries.
Many observers believe the WTO faces a pivotal moment in mid-2020 when its trade ministers gather in a drive to push through a multinational deal — on cutting fishing subsidies.
“It’s not the WTO that will save the fish. It’s the fish that are going to save the WTO,” said one ambassador.