Finance minister’s pre-budget statement paints rosy picture of Saudi economy

Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan speaking to media in Riyadh. (AN photo by Ahmed Fathi)
Updated 01 November 2019

Finance minister’s pre-budget statement paints rosy picture of Saudi economy

  • Efforts to develop and grow role of private sector in Kingdom continue to pay off

RIYADH: Saudi Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan on Thursday said government expenditure is expected to be SR 1,020 billion in 2020. Efforts will be made to improve the efficiency of spending without any disruption to diversification and transformation plans, he added. Revenues are projected to be about SR 833 billion in 2020, with a budget deficit of about 6.5 percent of GDP.

The figures were revealed in the minister’s pre-budget statement for fiscal year 2020. It gave details of developments in public-finance performance during 2019, and set out the main fiscal objectives and economic estimates for 2020 and the medium-term future. It also highlighted the key initiatives and programs that will be implemented during the coming fiscal year within the framework of Saudi Vision 2030.

Al-Jadaan said that the Kingdom’s fiscal policy aims to strike a balance between maintaining fiscal sustainability and enhancing economic growth and development, while also supporting economic transformation in line with Vision 2030. It does this by striving to increase efficiency and effectiveness within the framework of fiscal discipline, improving the basic services provided to citizens, diversifying government revenue sources and empowering the private sector.

The cabinet's approval of the government’s Tenders and Procurement Law will ensure fairness and transparency, promote competition, prevent the influence of personal interests, protect public money and provide fair treatment to competitors, he added, which will help to ensure equal opportunities.

The minister also said that the preliminary economic results and indicators reflect significant progress in the past year. Real GDP achieved a positive growth rate of about 1.1 percent in the first half of 2019, helped by the growth of the non-oil sector by 2.5 percent in the same period. Initial estimates indicate that GDP is expected to grow by 0.9 percent in 2019, with non-oil GDP growth rates expected to accelerate. Performance is expected to continue to improve in 2020, with GDP growth projected to reach 2.3 percent.

Total expenditure in 2019 is expected to be SR 1,048 billion, Al-Jadaan said, as the government aims to achieve fiscal discipline and stability as key objectives for sustainable economic growth in the medium term. Revenues for fiscal year 2019 are expected to be SR 917 billion, representing 1.2 percent growth compared with 2018, he added. The ratio of non-oil revenues to non-oil GDP is expected to increase to 16 percent by the end of 2019, compared with 7 percent in 2012.

“The budget deficit is expected to continue to decrease in this fiscal year 2019, reaching 4.7 percent of GDP, compared with 5.9 percent last year,” said Al-Jadaan.

He added that the 2020 budget will continue to implement programs and initiatives designed to strengthen the role of the private sector in the economy as the main driver of economic growth and job creation. Currently, there are 22 support initiatives for the private sector, including cash subsidies, commitments and financing guarantees, offered by entities such as the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Housing and the General Investment Authority.

Al-Jadaan said that the 2020 budget will continue efforts to improve the efficiency of public-finance management to maintain fiscal sustainability and maximize return on expenditure. This takes into account the potential effect of domestic and international developments during budget execution, he added.

“The 2020 budget will also focus its expenditure on Vision 2030 realization programs, which represent the main tool to realize economic transformation objectives, including housing programs, the quality of life program, privatization program, mega projects, private-sector stimulus packages and other major projects across various sectors,” the minister said. These projects will help to support non-oil GDP growth in 2020 and over the medium term, he added.

The implementation of these programs and initiatives has led to performance improvement in a number of sectors, Al-Jadaan said, the most notable of which is construction. It returned to positive growth in 2019 after declining during the previous three years.

In general, the economy has resumed positive and high growth across a number of economic sectors.

“In the first half of 2019, wholesale, retail-trade, restaurants and hotels, and finance, insurance, and real-estate activities grew by 3.8 percent and 5.1 percent respectively compared with the same period last year,” said the minister.

Transport, storage and communication, and community, social and personal services activities, including arts and entertainment, increased by 5.6 percent and 5.9 percent respectively compared with the same period in 2018.

The government is continuing its efforts to develop local content, enhance the competitiveness of the economy and improve the business environment, said Al-Jadaan. He noted that the non-oil private sector experienced positive growth during the first half of 2019 for the first time in three years, supported by policies designed to stimulate the private sector.

He said that releasing a pre-budget statement for a second consecutive year highlights the government commitment to reinforcing governance and controls on public finance, while enhancing the policy of financial disclosure by strengthening transparency principles.

With this in mind, the Kingdom recently joined the International Monetary Fund’s Special Data Dissemination Standard, which is considered one of the best international standards in the dissemination of national fiscal and economic data.

“This is an important step on the Kingdom's path to enhancing fiscal disclosure and transparency in accordance with international standards,” said Al-Jadaan.
 


Russia vows cooperation with OPEC to keep oil market balanced

Updated 21 November 2019

Russia vows cooperation with OPEC to keep oil market balanced

  • Moscow not aiming to be world’s No.1 crude producer, Putin tells annual investment forum

MOSCOW: President Vladimir Putin said on Wednesday that Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) have “a common goal” of keeping the oil market balanced and predictable, and Moscow will continue cooperation under the global supply curbs deal.

OPEC meets on Dec. 5 in Vienna, followed by talks with a group of other exporters, including Russia, known as OPEC+.

“Our (common with OPEC) goal is for the market to be balanced, acceptable for producers and consumers and the most important — and I want to underline this — predictable,” Putin told a forum on Wednesday.

In October, Russia cut its oil output to 11.23 million barrels per day (bpd) from 11.25 million bpd in September but it was still higher than a 11.17-11.18 million bpd cap set for Moscow under the existing global deal. Putin told the forum that Russia’s oil production was growing slightly despite the supply curbs deal but Moscow was not aiming to be the world’s No. 1 crude producer. Currently, the US is the world’s top oil producer.

“Russia has a serious impact on the global energy market but the most impact we achieve (is) when working along with other key producers,” he said. “There was a moment not that long ago when Russia was the world’s top oil producer — this is not our goal.”

Russia plans to produce between 556 million and 560 million tons of oil this year (11.17-11.25 million bpd), Energy Minister Alexander Novak said separately on Wednesday, depending on the volume of gas condensate produced during cold months.

Russia will aim to stick to its commitments under the deal in November, Novak told reporters.

Russia includes gas condensate — a side product also known as a “light oil” produced when companies extract natural gas — into its overall oil production statistics, which some other oil producing countries do not do.

As Russia is gradually increasing liquefied natural gas production (LNG), the share of gas condensate it is producing is also growing. Gas condensate now accounts for around 6 percent of Russian oil production.

Novak told reporters that in winter, Russia traditionally produces more gas condensate as it is launching new gas fields in the freezing temperatures.

“We believe that gas condensate should not be taken into account (of overall oil production statistics), as this is an absolutely different area related to gas production and gas supplies,” he said.

Three sources told Reuters on Tuesday that Russia is unlikely to agree to deepen cuts in oil output at a meeting with fellow exporters next month, but could commit to extend existing curbs to support Saudi Arabia.

On Wednesday, Novak declined to say that Russia’s position would be at upcoming OPEC+ meeting. Reuters uses a conversion rate of 7.33 barrels per ton of oil.