OPEC+ likely to extend supply curb deal: Oman energy minister

OPEC, Russia and other oil producer allies — a group known as OPEC+ — have since January implemented an agreement to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day until March 2020 in an attempt to boost prices. (AFP)
Updated 11 November 2019

OPEC+ likely to extend supply curb deal: Oman energy minister

  • OPEC, Russia and other oil producer allies have since January implemented an agreement to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day until March 2020
  • Oil demand is improving as trade tensions soften and Oman is satisfied with current oil prices

ABU DHABI: OPEC and non-OPEC producers will probably extend a deal to limit crude supply but are unlikely to deepen cuts, Oman’s energy minister said on Monday, as the United Arab Emirates said it was not worried about long-term oil demand growth.
The Organization of the Exporting Producing Countries, Russia and other oil producer allies — a group known as OPEC+ — have since January implemented an agreement to cut output by 1.2 million barrels per day until March 2020 in an attempt to boost prices. The group meets in December.
“Extension probably, cuts I think unlikely unless things happen in the next couple of weeks,” the energy minister of non-OPEC Oman, Mohammed bin Hamad Al-Rumhy, told reporters at an energy conference in the United Arab Emirates capital Abu Dhabi.
He said oil demand was improving as trade tensions soften and that Oman was satisfied with current oil prices, which fell more than 1 percent on Monday amid concerns over the prospects of a trade deal between the United States and China.
“All indications show things are getting better, the fear of recession, the signs of agreement between the US and China is positive,” Rumhy said.
Suhail Al-Mazrouei, the energy minister of the UAE, the third largest producer in OPEC after Saudi Arabia and Iraq, told the conference that oil demand growth was “reasonable.”
In its 2019 World Oil Outlook, the producer group said it would supply a diminishing amount of oil in the next five years as output of US shale and other rival sources expanded, despite a growing appetite for energy fed by global economic expansion.
“No one source or a group of sources will meet growth in demand,” OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo said in a panel discussion at the Abu Dhabi conference.
He said the oil industry would have to adapt to future changes in the energy mix as global population growth raises demand outlook.
Rising climate activism in the West and widening use of alternative fuels are putting the strength of long-term oil demand under more scrutiny.
“The greener forms of energy will have a higher pace of growth but conventional oil and gas will also grow. Gas will grow more as there is a demand for cleaner forms,” Mazrouei said.


OPEC sees small 2020 oil deficit even before latest supply cut

Updated 12 December 2019

OPEC sees small 2020 oil deficit even before latest supply cut

  • OPEC keeps its 2020 economic and oil demand growth forecasts steady and is more upbeat about the outlook

LONDON: OPEC on Wednesday pointed to a small deficit in the oil market next year due to restraint by Saudi Arabia even before the latest supply pact with other producers takes effect, suggesting a tighter market than previously thought.

In a monthly report, OPEC said demand for its crude will average 29.58 million barrels per day (bpd) next year. OPEC pumped less oil in November than the average 2020 requirement, having in previous months supplied more.

The report retreats further from OPEC’s initial projection of a 2020 supply glut as output from rival producers such as US shale has grown more slowly than expected. This will give a tailwind to efforts by OPEC and partners led by Russia to support the market next year.

OPEC kept its 2020 economic and oil demand growth forecasts steady and was more upbeat about the outlook.

“On the positive side, the global trade slowdown has likely bottomed out, and now the negative trend in industrial production seen in 2019 is expected to reverse in 2020,” the report said.

Oil prices were steady after the report’s release, trading near $64 a barrel, below the level some OPEC officials have said
they favor.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other producers, a group known as OPEC+, have since Jan. 1 implemented a deal to cut output by 1.2 million bpd to support the market. At meetings last week, OPEC+ agreed to a further cut of 500,000 bpd from Jan. 1 2020.

The report showed OPEC production falling even before the new deal takes effect.

In November, OPEC output fell by 193,000 bpd to 29.55 million bpd, according to figures the group collects from secondary sources, as Saudi Arabia cut supply.

Saudi Arabia told OPEC it made an even bigger cut in supply of over 400,000 bpd last month. The Kingdom had boosted production in October after attacks on its oil facilities in September briefly more than halved output.

The November production rate suggests there would be a 2020 deficit of 30,000 bpd if OPEC kept pumping the same amount and other factors remained equal, less than the 70,000 bpd surplus implied in November’s report and an excess of over 500,000 bpd seen in July. OPEC and its partners have been limiting supply since 2017, helping to revive prices by clearing a glut that built up in 2014 to 2016. But higher prices have also boosted US shale and other rival supplies.

In the report, OPEC said non-OPEC supply will grow by 2.17 million bpd in 2020, unchanged from the previous forecast but 270,000 less than initially thought in July as shale has not grown as quickly as first thought.

“In 2020, non-OPEC supply is expected to see a continued slowdown in growth on the back of decreased investment and lower drilling activities in US tight oil,” OPEC said, using another term for shale.