WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: All eyes on OPEC’s meet next week

OPEC’s own forecast for global oil demand growth remains unchanged in 2020 at 1.08 million bpd. (AFP)
Updated 30 November 2019

WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: All eyes on OPEC’s meet next week

  • OPEC will meet next week on Dec. 5-6

Although Brent crude dropped below $63 per barrel by the week closing, oil prices are still very close to the levels that prevailed around OPEC’s meeting six months ago when an output cut rollover was suggested till March 2020.

OPEC will meet next week on Dec. 5-6 and so far the efforts of the OPEC+ group of producers have been successful in absorbing the market surplus.

At the end of 2016 OECD stocks were 299 million barrels above the latest five-year average, which was OPEC’s key measure for its oil output strategy for those three years.

OECD commercial oil stocks for March 2018 were 40 million barrels below the latest five-year average, which meant that the OPEC+ output cuts of 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) since January 2017 were successful in driving OECD commercial oil stocks below the five-year average within just 15 months of the new  production cut strategy.

The continuing efforts in the past three years have ensured that the market is in balance and preventing any surplus building up.

By January this year OECD commercial oil stocks were at 19 million barrels above the latest five-year average — which coincided with the latest OPEC+ output cuts of 1.2 million bpd.

According to the OPEC monthly oil market report  of November 2019, OECD commercial oil stocks stand at 28.2 million barrels above the latest five-year average. This means that OECD commercial crude stocks have been increasing regardless of OPEC+ output cuts. However, OPEC monthly reports forecast a sharp fall in calls on its crude in the first half of next year, while non-OPEC supply is set to increase ahead of weak global demand growth.

OPEC’s own forecast for global oil demand growth remains unchanged in 2020 at 1.08 million bpd, but demand is projected to be flat in the first and second quarter, when non-OPEC supply is set to rise by 1.79 million bpd.

However, there are many non-OPEC supply uncertainties in 2020. 

According to OPEC’s own outlook, a rollover remains the most likely outcome of the 177th meeting.

• Faisal Faeq is an energy and oil marketing adviser. He was formerly with OPEC and Saudi Aramco. Twitter:@faisalfaeq


Emirates launches airbridge between Dubai, Lebanon emergency relief 

Updated 14 August 2020

Emirates launches airbridge between Dubai, Lebanon emergency relief 

  • Customers of Emirates will be able to donate cash or pledge their Skywards Miles to the airline for the aid
  • Emirates SkyCargo will also provide 20 percent reduction on air freight transportation charges for approved shipments

DUBAI: UAE national carrier Emirates SkyCargo plans to ramp up its freighter operations to Lebanon with 50 flights to deliver emergency relief in the wake of the Beirut port blast that killed nearly 200 people.
Customers of Emirates will be able to donate cash or pledge their Skywards Miles to the airline for the aid, state news agency WAM reported.
The Emirates Airline Foundation will coordinate shipments of urgent food, medical supplies with NGO partners to ensure donations directly help those affected on the ground.
Emirates SkyCargo will also provide 20 percent reduction on air freight transportation charges for approved shipments, underscoring its commitment to expedite emergency relief efforts to Beirut.
“Today, the world is banding together to stand in solidarity with Lebanon, providing urgent relief and immediate recovery support to those affected by this tragic disaster,” Chairman and Chief Executive of Emirates Airline & Group, Sheikh Ahmed bin Saeed Al-Maktoum, said. 
“Emirates supports the UAE’s ongoing humanitarian efforts to support Lebanon and is committed to bolster its global emergency response to ensure that it can support organizations which provide urgent care, shelter, food and medical support to the Lebanese people,” he added. 
Emirates said that it had dispatched several charter flights carrying food, clothing and medical supplies donated by various grassroots organizations in the UAE to Lebanon.