Iranians won’t be fooled by regime’s smear tactics

Thousands of Iranians recently took part in massive demonstrations in cities, towns and villages across the country, condemning the deteriorating socioeconomic situation, particularly the government’s sudden decision to triple gasoline prices.

President Hasan Rouhani’s claim that the price hike was an essential measure to compensate for a shortfall in the budget caused by US sanctions was met with skepticism and anger by the Iranian public, which is struggling to stay afloat and saw this unannounced move on Nov. 15 as the final straw.

In addition, the unprecedented rise in the price of basic commodities, skyrocketing inflation, and the government’s failure to tackle endemic financial and administrative corruption have angered the public.

Protesters were influenced by continuing demonstrations in Lebanon and Iraq, particularly since one of the most important underlying causes behind the civil unrest is people’s rejection of the Iranian regime’s influence and interference in the affairs of other countries. This rejection was made clear with Iraqi protesters destroying the ubiquitous images of Iranian leaders in the predominantly Shiite Iraqi city of Karbala, burning the Iranian flag, and storming the Iranian consulates in both Basra and Karbala.

Slogans chanted by protesters across Iran showed solidarity with the protests in Iraq and Lebanon. Protesters rejected Iran’s intervention in the internal affairs of regional nations and condemned the Tehran regime for wasting billions of dollars on its expansionist project in the region. The slogans included: “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, I sacrifice my soul for Iran,” “Oil money was lost — and spent in Palestine,” and “Dictator, leave Syria and think about our situation.”

The Iranian regime used excessive violence to crush the protests and shut down the Internet for days so that regime forces and affiliated militias, reportedly including some from Iraq, could indiscriminately kill and wound hundreds of unarmed protesters and arrest thousands without any coverage or leaks on social media. The demonstrators retaliated by attacking government buildings and institutions.

Resorting to its usual conspiracy theories, the Iranian regime accused the protesters of being foreign-backed insurgents and traitors trying to destabilize the country. The regime’s usual targets, the US, Israel and Arab regional states, were blamed, and protesters were accused of possessing arms from Iraq and Afghanistan. The regime also organized “spontaneous” counter-demonstrations and broadcast its usual forced confessions.

Amnesty International’s latest report mentioned that Iran’s security forces had killed about 304 Iranians, although many in Iran say the real figure is likely to be far higher. Regime-controlled news outlets continue to downplay the number of those killed, although the Kalema website, closely associated with “reformist” leader Mir Hossein Mousavi, announced the burial of 156 Iranians in the Behesht Zahra cemetery in Tehran, and reported that another 80 protesters had been buried in a number of Iranian cities.

At least 25 women and children were among those killed by regime forces. Tehran’s representative to the Iranian Parliament, Parwaneh Salahshouri, admitted that children had been killed by security forces, but gave no details. While the regime officially admitted that 2,000 people were arrested, the spokesman for Iran’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Hossein Naghavi Hosseini, put the number at 7,000.

Daily financial losses amounted to about $367 million due to the shutting down of the Internet, costing businesses about $26 million, with the state-owned telecoms firm Irancell suffering a 40 percent daily decline in revenue. Damage to 731 banks, 3,000 ATMs and 140 government sites by protesters is estimated at $714 million.

The recent protests are a natural continuation of the 2017-2018 demonstrations whose grievances and socioeconomic causes remain unaddressed.

The recent protests are a natural continuation of the 2017-2018 demonstrations whose grievances and socioeconomic causes remain unaddressed.

Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami

This means that protests will continue, but their momentum and strength will depend on a number of factors. The first, in light of the regime shutting down the Internet, is whether protesters will be able to transmit images of the protests and the oppression they are facing to encourage more Iranians to take to the streets.

Second is the ability of the regime’s security forces to contain the protests. This is a difficult task despite the level of oppression since protesters are no longer fearful.

Third, what will happen in Lebanon and Iraq will have a direct and significant impact on the Iranian protests, with all the demonstrations sharing grievances and inter-dependent goals as well as protesters drawing motivation and encouragement from each other.  

More concerning for the Iranian regime is that the protests could create fertile ground for more dangerous civil unrest directed at the country’s political system. Even if a rapid Iranian regime downfall is unlikely due to the deployment of its repressive apparatuses, it has already begun to lose its legitimacy — a fatal blow since it has lost all respect and prestige in the eyes of the Iranian people.

There is no coming back for the Iranian regime from this recent setback, and to create a distraction it will look to increase its regional interference and mobilize Iranian nationalism by using the threat card as it has done in the past.

In addition, the regime will continue with its smear tactics in an effort to deflect attention from its own failures.

However, the Iranian public is much more aware of the survival strategies employed by the regime at desperate times and is unlikely to fall into its trap as they have been fooled many times over.

The time is ripe to continue the challenge against the regime to ensure people’s rights and needs are met by a negligent political system.

• Dr. Mohammed Al-Sulami is head of the International Institute for Iranian Studies (Rasanah). Twitter: @mohalsulami