China virus causes first drop in oil use in a decade: IEA

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Local residents wearing protective face masks amid fears coronavirus pass containers of petrol across a checkpoint in Vietnam. (AFP)
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A scanning and transmission electron microscope image of coronavirus released by the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases' (NIAID) Rocky Mountains Laboratories (RML). (NIAID-RML)
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Updated 15 February 2020

China virus causes first drop in oil use in a decade: IEA

  • Global demand ‘hit hard’ as contagion forces widespread shutdown of Chinese economy, says report

PARIS: Global oil demand will suffer its first quarterly drop in a decade as the COVID-19 virus lashes the economy in China and its impact ripples throughout the world, the IEA said.

“Global oil demand has been hit hard by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and the widespread shutdown of China’s economy,” the International Energy Agency said in its latest monthly report.

“Demand is now expected to fall by 435,000 barrels year-on-year in the first quarter of 2020, the first quarterly contraction in more than 10 years” when it dropped during the global economic crisis, it added.

While the IEA still expects demand for oil to grow for this year as the outbreak is contained, it slashed its forecast for the increase in global consumption by nearly a third to 825,000 barrels per day, the smallest increase since 2011.

The outbreak of the new coronavirus spurred China to take drastic measures such as placing in quarantine over a dozen cities and extending the Lunar New Year holidays in order to try to stem its spread, nearly shutting down key parts of its economy.

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Although markets have rebounded in recent days as investors grew confident that China could quickly contain the virus and its economic impact would be short lived, the IEA warned against complacency by comparing today’s crisis to the 2003 SARS outbreak.

“While steps taken in China to reduce its spread were adopted earlier than in the SARS crisis and have been far more extensive, the profound transformation of the world economy since 2003 means China’s slowdown today is bound to have a stronger global impact,” it said in the report.

The IEA noted that since 2003 China has become more integrated in global supply chains, its tourism sector has dramatically expanded and Chinese are the largest contingent of world tourists, and the country’s share of global GDP has jumped from 4 to 16 percent.

With it estimating that China’s international air travel having fallen by 70 percent and domestic travel by half in the early part of the crisis, the IEA expects double digit drops in jet fuel demand in the country.

A similar drop in diesel demand is expected due to other travel restrictions.

The IEA chopped its forecast for China’s GDP growth in the first quarter of this year by 1.5 percentage points to 4.5 percent. It also made large cuts of over 0.5 percentage points to its forecasts for China’s trading partners in the region, as well as the US and Russia.

The IEA doesn’t forecast changes in oil prices, but said consumers were unlikely to get much of a boost from cheaper petrol and diesel at the end of the day.

“The effect of the Covid-19 crisis on the wider economy means that it will be difficult for consumers to feel the benefit of lower oil prices,” it said.

With China being a big consumer of oil and the source of most of the growth in oil demand in recent years, the crisis will have a major impact on oil producers.

At the end of last year, OPEC and its allies including Russia, called OPEC+, agreed to further cuts in oil production in order to compensate for rising production in the US and avoid excess supplies that would depress prices.

They are now considering an additional cut of 600,000 barrels per day to compensate for the drop in demand due to COVID-19.

The IEA estimates that the demand for OPEC crude has dropped from 29.4 million barrels per day (mbd) in the final quarter of 2019 to 27.2 mbd in the first three months of this year.

It noted that this is 1.7 mbd below what what OPEC produced in January when the new production cuts came into force.


NMC Health’s new executive chair vows to recover misused funds

Updated 05 April 2020

NMC Health’s new executive chair vows to recover misused funds

  • London-listed NMC recently revised its debt position to $6.6 billion, much higher than earlier estimated
  • NMC’s stock has more than halved in value since December and trading in its shares was suspended in February

DUBAI: The new executive chairman of hospital operator NMC Health vowed on Saturday to work with authorities in Britain and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to recover misused funds and called on the company’s creditors for a debt standstill.
Faisal Belhoul said in a statement that keeping NMC Health operating was a “national priority,” particularly as the country and the world battle the coronavirus pandemic.
Belhoul said putting the hospital operator into administration would “cause instability to the operating businesses of the NMC Group, creating additional pressure on the group’s liquidity and reducing value for all creditors.”
A temporary debt standstill, by contrast, would allow the firm to prepare and activate a recovery plan.
London-listed NMC recently revised its debt position to $6.6 billion, much higher than earlier estimated.
NMC’s stock has more than halved in value since December and trading in its shares was suspended in February. The decline was triggered by a report by short seller Muddy Waters that questioned the company’s financial statement.
Belhoul’s appointment was made after the company’s non-executive directors uncovered alleged theft and excess undisclosed borrowings by former directors of the company, the statement said.
Belhoul is a founder and chairman of Ithmar Capital Partners, which owns a 9% stake in NMC.
“We are working in full cooperation and in close dialogue with authorities in the UAE and UK, including the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), and will vigorously chase down the perpetrators for return of these funds,” he said.
Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, one of more than 80 local, regional and international creditors, said last week it had over $981 million exposure to NMC Health.
NMC Health claims to be the largest private health care company in the UAE, operating more than 200 facilities, which includes hospitals, clinics and pharmacies.
“The NMC Group is currently treating hundreds of people suspected of having COVID-19 and in the UAE has screened more than 10,000 workers for the virus in partnership with the Ministry of Health and Prevention and the Ministry of Human Resources and Emiratization,” the statement said.