Fed in holding pattern amid tense US election

Fed in holding pattern amid tense US election
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in the US caused tens of millions of layoffs as well as a historic contraction in gross domestic product. (File/Reuters)
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Updated 02 November 2020

Fed in holding pattern amid tense US election

Fed in holding pattern amid tense US election
  • Recent statistics show an economic recovery is underway as GDP rebounds

WASHINGTON: The Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee meets  this week at a turbulent time: One day after voters head to the polls in the deeply uncertain US presidential election.

But the body pointedly keeps itself out of politics, and analysts expect the policy-setting Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) will do little to rock the boat at its two-day meeting beginning on Wednesday.

The Fed already zeroed out borrowing rates and offered massive credit facilities amid the coronavirus downturn, recently expanding them to reach more firms and nonprofit organizations.

“I think November’s meeting is too soon for there to be a dramatic break,” said David Wilcox, a former top economist at the Fed who is now with the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

“This is a sort of a placeholder meeting while they wait for those situations to clarify.” Political uncertainty ahead of the vote comes amid continued worries about the world’s largest economy.

While the Fed moved quickly with new credit lines and the rate cut as the pandemic arrived, the initial momentum to get aid bills through Congress has petered out despite increasingly desperate pleas for more aid from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.

John Mousseau, president and chief executive officer at Cumberland Advisors, said the central bank is likely to again encourage lawmakers to continue the push for new stimulus after the election in the final weeks before a new Congress is installed in January.

“The Fed has done their job,” he said. And as they call for more aid next week “the message will be delivered to a lame duck Congress that might actually act on what the Fed’s doing.”

The FOMC meeting lacks any suspense over the benchmark lending rate after the central bank in August debuted a new policy keeping interest rates lower for longer to wait for inflation to rise and maximize employment.

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in the US caused tens of millions of layoffs as well as a historic contraction in GDP, but recent data shows a recovery is underway.

GDP growth rebounded by 33.1 percent annualized in the third quarter from its 31.4 percent contraction in the quarter before, according to Commerce Department data.

But weekly applications for jobless benefits remain higher than the worst of the 2008-2010 global financial crisis, and nearly 23 million people continue to receive some form of government unemployment support.

The $2.2 trillion CARES Act stimulus package passed in March has helped spur rehiring and supported spending, but key provisions are expired and fears of a renewed economic malaise have increased. Extending that aid is the job of Congress, but at the Fed, “They’ve got their accelerator foot down hard on the pedal ... to sustain the economy as best as they can, using the tools at their disposal,” Wilcox said

It is unclear how much more the Fed is willing or able to do.  Mousseau said they could begin buying different types of debt to ease the pressure on entities like local governments, particularly if no stimulus package is passed.

But that opens them up to thorny questions over whose debt to buy, and accusations of political preference could follow, the last thing the central bank desires.

“I think that’s one reason why the Fed has passed some of this back to Congress. Rightfully so,” Mousseau said.

It is a given that the FOMC meeting will be overshadowed by the election contest between President Donald Trump and his challenger Joe Biden set for the day before the meeting begins.

Powell is expected to steer well clear of political questions in his press conference Thursday.

“They’re always fighting the fight against being put in a political position,” Mousseau said. “To its credit, that’s one thing Powell has stood up against. The Fed can’t be a political vehicle.”


Goldman Sachs nudges U.S. growth forecast higher on Biden stimulus plan

Goldman Sachs nudges U.S. growth forecast higher on Biden stimulus plan
Updated 17 January 2021

Goldman Sachs nudges U.S. growth forecast higher on Biden stimulus plan

Goldman Sachs nudges U.S. growth forecast higher on Biden stimulus plan
  • The bank expects economic growth of 6.6% in 2021
  • Biden outlined a $1.9 trillion stimulus package proposal on Thursday

Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group raised their U.S. growth forecast for the second time this month on expectations that President-elect Joe Biden’s fiscal stimulus plan will hasten the economy’s recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
The bank expects economic growth of 6.6% in 2021, compared with a previous forecast of 6.4%, according to a report published on Saturday. It also raised forecasts for how much stimulus the new administration will be able to push through in the near-term, to $1.1 trillion from $750 billion.
Biden outlined a $1.9 trillion stimulus package proposal on Thursday, saying bold investment was needed to jump-start the economy and accelerate the distribution of vaccines to bring the coronavirus under control.
“Larger boosts to disposable income and government spending imply stronger growth later in the year,” the bank’s analysts wrote.