Macro Snapshot — US sees rising mortgages rates; China may lower lending rates

Macro Snapshot — US sees rising mortgages rates; China may lower lending rates
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Updated 19 April 2022

Macro Snapshot — US sees rising mortgages rates; China may lower lending rates

Macro Snapshot — US sees rising mortgages rates; China may lower lending rates

RIYADH: US single-family homebuilding tumbled in March as soaring mortgage rates increased costs, but residential construction remains underpinned by a severe shortage of houses.

The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday also showed permits for future building of single-family houses plunged last month. It came on the heels of a survey on Monday showing sentiment among homebuilders dropped to a seven-month low in April.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has risen to 5 percent for the first time in over a decade as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to stamp out sky-high inflation. The housing market is the sector of the economy most sensitive to interest rates.

Sweden boosts spending 

(Shutterstock)

Sweden’s minority center-left government pledged 35 billion krona ($3.64 billion) in extra spending this year as it juggles the impact of the war in Ukraine, soaring post-pandemic inflation and an election looming in September.

The economy has bounced back quickly from the coronavirus pandemic and despite Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it is expected to remain relatively strong.

But the war has forced the government to subsidize energy and fuel prices and increase military spending, adding to the roughly 600 billion krona bill so far for the effects of the COVID-19 crisis. 

Indonesia trims growth outlook

Indonesia’s central bank cut its 2022 economic growth outlook on Tuesday amid risks from inflation and geopolitical tensions, while leaving interest rates at a record low to bolster the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

Bank Indonesia kept the benchmark 7-day reverse repurchase rate at 3.50 percent, as expected by all economists in a Reuters poll. It also left steady other policy rates for the overnight interbank money market. 

BI has been adamant about maintaining low interest rates for as long as possible, even as other Asian central banks began to tighten monetary policy to temper a spike in commodity prices as the Ukraine-Russia war exacerbates supply chain disruptions.

Inflation in Southeast Asia’s largest economy was still within BI’s 2 percent to 4 percent target range, although consumer prices rose to a two-year high in March at 2.64 percent. 

China may lower lending rates 

Benchmark lending rates for China’s commercial banks are likely to be lowered at a monthly fixing on Wednesday, a Reuters survey showed, as Beijing cautiously eases monetary conditions to aid an economy hit by coronavirus lockdowns in several cities.

The loan prime rate, which banks normally charges their best clients, is set on the 20th of each month, when 18 designated commercial banks submit their proposed rates to the People’s Bank of China.

A vast majority of the 28 traders and analysts surveyed in a snap Reuters poll on Tuesday expect a reduction this month.

Among them, 11, or 39 percent of all respondents, predicted a marginal cut of 5 basis points (bps) to both the one-year loan prime rate and the five-year rate on Wednesday. Another six participants also expect a reduction to either rates within a range of 5 to 10 bps.

The remaining 11 respondents expected both rates to remain unchanged this month.

New Zealand fiscal policy

New Zealand’s finance minister said on Tuesday the government should continue to be careful about spending and flagged the introduction of new fiscal rules in the budget next month.

“It’s really important that we use fiscal policy sensibly to be able to make sure New Zealand not only keeps a lid on debt but that we invest in the right things,” Finance Minister Grant Robertson told a news conference.

He said new fiscal rules would be introduced at this year’s budget in May after some fiscal targets were previously suspended as the government responded to the COVID-19 pandemic.

But Robertson stressed that even as New Zealand must be careful with spending, infrastructure projects such as the overhaul of the country’s health system remains important.

“It is important that we don’t cut our nose off to spite our face and take away funding,” he said.

New Zealand’s central bank has raised interest rates at four consecutive meetings and signaled more hikes in coming quarters as it expects annual inflation to peak around 7 percent in the first half of this year.

Rising costs have also prompted calls from opposition parliamentary members for the government to use fiscal policy to help temper inflation.

Argentina takes steps against inflation

Argentina’s government said on Monday the country’s neediest would get help to cope with soaring prices as part of a special aid program that will be financed with taxes on business experiencing unexpected gains from the Ukraine war.

Workers included in the measure will receive 18,000 pesos ($158) in two installments and retirees will receive 12,000 pesos in one installment.

The government said it will fund the bonuses with a tax on companies that saw “unexpected income” generated by the war in Ukraine. This includes grain exports and would affect companies with profits over 1 billion pesos a year.

The government did not report the total cost of the program or give any details on the tax rate. The proposal still needs approval from congress.

UK inflation to squeeze profits 

More than seven out of 10 chief financial officers at Britain’s biggest companies expect high inflation to reduce their profit margins, and few see the Bank of England getting inflation under control in the next couple of years.

A quarterly survey from accountants Deloitte showed a record 98 percent of CFOs expect their operating costs to rise over the coming year, and 71 percent expect their operating margins to fall, up from 44 percent in the previous quarter.

“Over the next year, CFOs believe a mix of rising costs and slower growth are set to squeeze margins,” Ian Stewart, chief economist at Deloitte, said.

Fed’s Bullard wants to get rates up 

The Federal Reserve Building, in Washington DC (Shutterstock)

US inflation is “far too high,” St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Monday as he repeated his case for increasing interest rates to 3.5 percent by the end of the year to slow what are now 40-year-high inflation readings.

“What we need to do right now is get expeditiously to neutral and then go from there,” Bullard said at a virtual event held by the Council on Foreign Relations. But with economic growth expected to remain above its potential, he added, the economy won’t fall into recession and the unemployment rate, now at 3.6 percent, will likely drop below 3 percent this year.

(With input from Reuters)


DCO startup passport cuts the red tape on cross-border trade

DCO startup passport cuts the red tape on cross-border trade
Updated 13 August 2022

DCO startup passport cuts the red tape on cross-border trade

DCO startup passport cuts the red tape on cross-border trade
  • Program helps startups do business across borders more efficiently while maintaining their local footprint

RIYADH: The Digital Cooperation Organization, a global initiative focused on improving the digital economy, is working toward encouraging fledgling companies to tap international markets through its startup program.

Called Startup Passport, the program helps startups do business across borders more efficiently while maintaining their footprint in their country of origin, said Hassan Nasser, vice president of international affairs of DPO.

The program has opened up potentially lucrative markets with a combined population of over half a billion people and a combined gross domestic product of nearly SR7.5 trillion ($2 trillion), reported the Saudi Press Agency.

Hassan Nasser

“By creating a new market expansion in DCO countries and beyond, you will positively impact these other markets,” said Naseer.

He said that the expansion of startups would create new economic entities, improve employment within DCO member states and nurture innovative solutions.

By creating a new market expansion in DCO countries and beyond, you will positively impact these other markets.

Hassan Nasser

According to Nasser, these innovative solutions could find wider acceptance with most startups focusing on sustainability and conservation.

In fact, the DCO Global Roundtable Series at the World Telecommunication Development Conference in June was meant to bring together global leaders to advance digital prosperity.

Naseer explained that the roundtable provides a platform for leaders worldwide to exchange perspectives on improving cooperation in the digital space and delivering an inclusive, sustainable digital economy.

The first roundtable had around 35 participants from 20 different countries.

FASTFACT

$2tr

The program has opened up potentially lucrative markets with a combined population of over half-a-billion people and a combined gross domestic product of nearly SR7.5 trillion ($2 trillion).

In Nasser’s view, cross-border cooperation is one of the critical reasons for the existence of DCO. “That’s one of the reasons DCO exists, to help on that and drive this cross-border cooperation,” he said.

Developing an efficient model requires cooperation, reducing costs and increasing return on investment by defining the best solution.

“There are a lot of challenges when it comes to digital investment, digital skills, digital empowerment, where we need more cooperation,” Nasser said.

As Nasser explained, DCO does not compete with anything but addresses a gap and complements a need.

The DCO will deliver its future roundtables in Latin America, Europe, Asia, and the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

Commenting on the UN General Assembly, he said it “will be a place where we get a global audience for this important session.”

He added: “A vital component of the organization’s mission is launching initiatives that will benefit all member states.”

With 11 member nations, DCO aspires to bring inclusive growth in the digital economy across its member nations, such as Bahrain, Djibouti, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Nigeria, Oman, Pakistan, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, and Cyprus.

The organization was launched in early 2022 at LEAP, a global event for future technologies held in Riyadh.


Acciona rejects carbon-intensive projects to meet environmental commitments

Acciona rejects carbon-intensive projects to meet environmental commitments
Updated 13 August 2022

Acciona rejects carbon-intensive projects to meet environmental commitments

Acciona rejects carbon-intensive projects to meet environmental commitments
  • The company is bidding for NEOM in the heavy civil area with hopes of contributing to the Kingdom’s projects

DUBAI: Spain's Acciona, a leader in sustainable solutions for infrastructure and renewable energy, has been rejecting projects that are not carbon neutral as part of its commitment to environmental protection.

According to a top executive, the company has been turning down projects directly involved in oil and gas extraction or production since they will add to the carbon dioxide emissions on its balance sheet.

Founded in 1931, the company has been carbon neutral since 2016, said Acciona's Middle East Director-General Jesus Sancho while speaking to Arab News.

Jesus Sancho

"That's something easy to say, but it is very difficult to achieve for a company which is present across 60 countries in the world," he said.

That’s something easy to say, but it is very difficult to achieve for a company which is present across 60 countries in the world.

Jesus Sancho

Sancho explained that one part of the company invests solely in renewable energy to achieve carbon neutrality. Acciona owns and operates its assets, including more than 12 gigawatts of renewable energy, contributing to negative carbon emissions.

As for renewable energies, the company has solar thermal, photovoltaic, concentrating solar-thermal power and wind farms, all of which are carbon-negative and offset the carbon dioxide generated by the other areas of the company, he added.

The challenge for Acciona, which has invested approximately SR1.8 billion ($500 million) in projects, is minimizing each project's carbon footprint to achieve carbon neutrality.

FASTFACT

$500m

The challenge for Acciona, which has invested approximately SR1.8 billion ($500 million) in projects, is minimizing each project’s carbon footprint to achieve carbon neutrality.

"We are focusing on projects aligned with our philosophy," he said, adding that his company's sustainability master plans were well aligned with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030's goals.

The company's sustainability commitment has already invited the attention of the futuristic smart city, NEOM.

Acciona, according to Sancho, is bidding for NEOM in the heavy civil area with hopes of contributing to the Kingdom's projects.

The company is currently working on water treatment plant projects in the Kingdom. It has also set up desalination plants in Alkhobar 1, Alkhobar 2 and Shuqaiq 4.

Acciona also built the Shuqaiq 3 desalination plant to full capacity, producing 450 million liters of potable water daily. In addition, the plant is equipped with energy-efficient seawater reverse osmosis technology.

 


Five Chinese state-owned companies to delist from NYSE amid US tensions

Five Chinese state-owned companies to delist from NYSE amid US tensions
Updated 12 August 2022

Five Chinese state-owned companies to delist from NYSE amid US tensions

Five Chinese state-owned companies to delist from NYSE amid US tensions

SHANGHAI: Five Chinese state-owned companies, including oil giant Sinopec and China Life Insurance, said on Friday they would delist from the New York Stock Exchange, amid economic and diplomatic tensions with the US, according to Reuters.

The companies, which also include Aluminium Corporation of China, PetroChina and Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co, each said that they would apply to delist their American Depository Shares this month.

The five, which in May were flagged by the US securities regulator as failing to meet its auditing standards, will keep their listings in Hong Kong and mainland Chinese markets.

Beijing and Washington are in talks to resolve a long-running audit dispute that could see Chinese companies banned from US exchanges if they do not comply with US rules.

Washington has long demanded complete access to the books of US-listed Chinese companies, but Beijing bars foreign inspection of audit documents from local accounting firms, citing national security concerns.

There was no mention of the auditing dispute in separate statements by the Chinese companies outlining their moves, which come amid heightened tensions after last week’s visit to Taiwan by US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

“These companies have strictly complied with the rules and regulatory requirements of the US capital market since their listing in the US and made the delisting choice for their own business considerations,” the China Securities Regulatory Commission said in a statement.

The agency added that it would keep “communication open with relevant overseas regulatory agencies.”

The oversight row, which has been simmering for more than a decade, came to a head in December when the Securities and Exchange Commission finalized rules to potentially prohibit trading in Chinese companies under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act. It said 273 companies were at risk.

Some of China’s largest companies including Alibaba Group Holdings, J.D Com Inc. and Baidu Inc. are among them. Alibaba said last week it would convert its Hong Kong secondary listing into a dual primary listing which analysts said could ease the way for the Chinese ecommerce giant to switch primary listing venues in the future.

In premarket trading Friday, US-listed shares of China Life Insurance and oil giant Sinopec fell 5.7 percent about 4.3 percent respectively. Aluminium Corporation of China dropped 1.7 percent, while PetroChina shed 4.3 percent. Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Co. shed 4.1 percent.

A spokesperson for NYSE declined to comment. A spokesperson for the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board, the audit watchdog overseen by the SEC, did not immediately provide comment.

Losing Patience? 

Market-watchers were split over what the delistings might mean for the audit deal, with some saying it was a bad sign.

“China is sending a message that its patience is wearing thin in the audit talks,” said Kai Zhan, senior counsel at Chinese law firm Yuanda, who specializes in US capital markets.

The companies said their US traded share volume was small compared with those on their other major listing venues.

PetroChina said it had never raised follow-on capital from its USlisting and its Hong Kong and Shanghai bases “can satisfy the company’s fundraising requirements” as well as providing “better protection of the interests of the investors.”

Global fund managers holding US-listed Chinese stocks are steadily shifting toward their Hong Kong-traded peers, even as they remain hopeful the audit dispute will eventually be resolved, Reuters reported this week.

“These companies are very thinly traded with very small US market cap so it is not a loss for US capital markets,” Brendan Ahern, CIO of Krane Funds Advisers, which has a New York-listed fund focused on Chinese tech plays, wrote in an email.

He and analysts said the delistings could pave the way for China to comply with the US requirements, since the five companies concerned likely have sensitive information China would not want exposed in an audit review.

“We see this as a positive sign. This is consistent with our view China will decide what companies would be allowed to be US-listed and thus subject to SEC’s audit investigations,” Jefferies analysts wrote in a note.

China Life and Chalco said they would file for delisting on Aug. 22, with it taking effect 10 days later. Sinopec, whose full name is China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and PetroChina said their applications would be made on Aug. 29.

China Telecom, China Mobile and China Unicom were delisted from the US in 2021 after a Trump-era decision to restrict investment in Chinese technology firms.

That ruling has been left unchanged by the Biden administration amid continuing tensions. 


US Stocks — Futures up as easing price pressures set Wall St. for weekly gains

US Stocks — Futures up as easing price pressures set Wall St. for weekly gains
Updated 12 August 2022

US Stocks — Futures up as easing price pressures set Wall St. for weekly gains

US Stocks — Futures up as easing price pressures set Wall St. for weekly gains

BENGALURU: US stock index futures rose on Friday, setting the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq for a fourth straight week of gains on easing bets of another super-sized interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve.

The S&P 500 is up 15 percent from mid-June, with the latest boost coming from a slower-than-expected rise in consumer prices and a surprise drop in producer prices in July.

The benchmark index is within sight of a 50 percent retracement of its bear market loss and investors are watching the 4,231 level. The index last closed at 4,207.27.

While policymakers remain firm about a further tightening in monetary policy until inflation pressures fully abate, traders see a 63.5 percent chance of the Fed raising rates by 50 basis points next month instead of a 75 basis points hike.

The Fed has raised its policy rate by 225 basis points since March as it battles to cool demand without sparking a sharp rise in layoffs.

High-growth and technology stocks such as Tesla and Nvidia rose 1 percent each in trading before the bell as investors flocked back to riskier assets.

Growth stocks have underpeformed their value counterparts so far this year on worries that rising Treasury yields due to aggressive rate hikes will pressure their valuation.

Investors bought $7.1 billion in equities in the week to Wednesday, according to a Bank of America note, with US growth stocks recording their largest weekly inflow since December last year.

Meanwhile, banks looked set to extend their rally for sixth straight week, with JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs gaining 0.4 percent each in premarket trading.

At 07:28 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 106 points, or 0.32 percent, S&P 500 e-minis were up 13.75 points, or 0.33 percent, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 42 points, or 0.32 percent.

Rivian Automotive Inc. slipped 0.2 percent even as the electric-vehicle maker reported better-than-expected second quarter revenue.

The University of Michigan’s preliminary survey of consumer sentiment for August is expected at 10:00 am ET. 


Gold eyes fourth straight weekly gain on dollar weakness

Gold eyes fourth straight weekly gain on dollar weakness
Updated 12 August 2022

Gold eyes fourth straight weekly gain on dollar weakness

Gold eyes fourth straight weekly gain on dollar weakness

LONDON: Gold prices inched lower on Friday but were still on track for a weekly rise, as an overall weakness in the dollar offset pressure from an uptick in bond yields and expectations of further rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve.

Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,786.06 per ounce, as of 1200 GMT.

Bullion was still headed for its fourth straight weekly gain, up nearly 1 percent in its longest weekly rally in almost a year.

US gold futures fell 0.3 percent to $1,801.10.

The dollar edged 0.4 percent higher on the day, but was down about 1 percent for the week.

A weaker greenback makes bullion less expensive for overseas buyers.

“Inflation easing a little has aided gold’s rally to $1,800. But risk assets were quickly preferred and gold’s rally stalled. If risk appetite fades over the next couple of weeks, that could support a move above $1,800,” OANDA analyst Craig Erlam said.

Market participants have toned down expectations of an aggressive rate hike by the Fed after cooler-than-expected inflation data released earlier this week.

However, recent comments by some Fed officials continue to highlight a hawkish tilt. Gold’s appeal tends to dim amid high-interest rate environment, as the metal yields no interest.

Fed’s Mary Daly said on Thursday that while a half-percentage-point interest rate hike in September “makes sense,” she is open to the possibility of a bigger hike.

“The ongoing tightening of monetary policy is still having a braking effect on gold... Market participants remain correspondingly cautious and have been withdrawing funds from the gold ETFs of late,” Commerzbank said in a note.

Weighing on gold, US Treasury yields hovered near a three-week high.

Spot silver fell 0.1 percent to $20.28 per ounce, palladium slipped 1.5 percent to $2,242.90. Platinum fell 0.8 percent to $948.29 per ounce.