Questions remain over Ukraine’s EU accession

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed an application for his country to join the EU on Feb. 28. Less than two months later, on April 18, Zelensky handed over a completed questionnaire for Ukraine’s obtaining of EU candidate country status to the head of the EU delegation to Ukraine, Matti Maasikas. According to Maasikas, Ukraine’s questionnaire will be analyzed very quickly. How has the relationship between Ukraine and the EU developed over time, given the complex relations with Moscow? And what does the possibility of Kyiv being part of the EU family mean in the context of the Ukraine war?
Ukraine declared its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991 and in 1994 signed a Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with the EU. Over the years, the country has faced the dilemma of having to ally itself either with Russia or the EU/West. For example, in 2002, Ukraine officially declared its intention to join NATO. Between 2004 and 2005, the runoff vote of the 2004 Ukrainian presidential election incited the Orange Revolution against the victory of Viktor Yanukovych — who was assumed to have pro-Russian policies. Opposition to Yanukovych was strong in the western and central parts of Ukraine (including Kyiv), while his supporters were mainly from the eastern and southern regions. The Russian public was predominantly supportive of Yanukovych, while Western partners were generally opposed.
In 2013, another wave of demonstrations and unrest, known as Euromaidan, began in Ukraine, which also involved the Russian issue. The protests started after the Ukrainian government’s decision to suspend the signing of an association agreement with the EU, which was seen as a choice to ally itself with Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union instead. However, in 2014, after signing an agreement on the settlement of the political crisis in Ukraine, the president was removed from office by parliament.
The peak of the crisis between Russia and Ukraine was reached with the pro-Russian unrest in eastern Ukraine and the Crimea crisis. In 2019, the Ukrainian parliament approved a constitutional amendment making EU (and NATO) membership long-term goals of the country. By then, President Petro Poroshenko had lost the 2019 election to Zelensky. The latter declared pro-EU policies, keeping Ukraine on a path to EU integration and NATO membership, seeking EU support for anti-corruption and judicial reform measures.

Accepting Ukraine’s membership might mean officially recognizing a state of war between Russia and the EU.

Dr. Diana Galeeva

Prior to February’s full-scale Russian invasion, Zelensky had explicitly expressed a desire for Ukraine to join the EU, but an application was not imminent. Even now, as Zelensky stresses that Ukraine’s movement toward Brussels is taking place at a very tragic time, when many Ukrainians who profess European values are losing their lives, the potential status of Kyiv as a member of the EU raises several questions and highlights obstacles.
The submission of a membership application by a country is the first formal step. The European Commission then examines the application and makes a judgment as to whether that country meets the accession standards, known as the Copenhagen criteria. On average, EU accession takes five years between the opening of negotiations and a country becoming a member state. Recent examples show the process can take even longer, with Bulgaria and Romania both having to wait seven years and Croatia eight years.
Prior to the ongoing war, there were long-term concerns about corruption in Ukraine, which were a major obstacle to its chances of having an application accepted. Within the context of the Ukraine war, there are other questions, such as uncertainty about when and how the conflict will end, whether the possibility of Ukraine’s neutral status will be achieved, as discussed in negotiations, and what Moscow’s response will be.
Indeed, the context of every application is different and the circumstances of Ukraine’s bid are unprecedented. Were the EU to accept the application, it would be seen as an act of solidarity and a message to Ukrainians and Russia alike that the EU has a long-term commitment to ever-closer relations. However, this would also mean that the EU would be “formally” fighting Russia by supporting Ukraine. The bloc has already provided €1.2 billion ($1.3 billion) in financial aid loans to Ukraine and €500 million of weapons. While Russia calls the EU countries, the UK and the US “unfriendly states,” Ukraine’s membership might mean officially recognizing a state of war between Russia and the EU.
Fast-tracking EU accession for Ukraine could also create grievances among other states that have been struggling for years to win approval for an application (Bosnia and Herzegovina, for example) or a negotiating mandate (such as Albania and North Macedonia). Also, the recent formal application for EU membership by another two former Soviet republics, Georgia and Moldova, might transform the bloc from normative power to hard power, with only one primary concern — security.
It appears the final obstacle is the EU’s transforming status, such as the Brexit vote and the UK’s subsequent exit from the union. There are also uncertainties over the ongoing popularity of far-right leaders, with continuing discourses about potential changes in the EU. All these factors are only adding more questions over the status of Ukraine in the EU in the current circumstances.

• Dr. Diana Galeeva is an academic visitor to St. Antony’s College, Oxford University. Dr. Galeeva is the author of two books: “Qatar: The Practice of Rented Power” (Routledge, 2022) and “Russia and the GCC: The Case of Tatarstan’s Paradiplomacy” (I.B. Tauris/Bloomsbury, 2022). She is also a co-editor of the collection “Post-Brexit Europe and UK: Policy Challenges Towards Iran and the GCC States” (Palgrave Macmillan, 2021).