Macron’s confederation for democracy

French President Emmanuel Macron quoted post-war statesman Robert Schuman as he addressed the European Parliament in Strasbourg this week: “Peace can only be safeguarded through creative efforts that reflect the threats to us.”
In a detailed overview of what Europe means and what the future of Europe could be, Macron referred to the EU as being an unparalleled success in the history of democracy. With the specter of a Le Pen government that could have exited the bloc fresh in the minds of the audience, Macron was keen to underline France’s commitment to the union. His most important announcement, however, was for a new political European community that would importantly allow Ukraine, other frontier states, and maybe even the UK, to be more closely aligned with the EU.
It is war, knocking at the door of Europe so spectacularly in recent weeks, which has underscored this development. Much as NATO and the EU emerged from the embers of a Europe ravaged by two world wars, Macron now wishes to align the aspirations of Moldovans with those of the Irish, avoiding conflict and safeguarding the hard-won democracy that arose from a troubled continent.
The speech given in the closing minutes of the “Future of Europe” conference was incredibly fitting, as though united in their criticism of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, opinions have differed as to the response. Macron outlined that though “we are not at war with Russia,” the circumstances are such that “when peace returns to European soil, we will need to build new security balances.”
In offering to build unity around democracy, a shared respect for the rule of law and investing in defense capabilities, Macron embraced the same sentiment which led to the inception of the union post-war. Though the concept of a “European Confederation” was coined by Francois Mitterrand, the modern proposal is itself a novel one. The EU has faltered because of over-expansion, economic disparities, and has become a pseudonym for laborious administrative processes and inefficiency. However, in appealing to the core tenets which coupled erstwhile enemies France and Germany to build an $18.5 trillion trading bloc, Macron has begun to provide a solution which considers the aspirations of those wishing to integrate, the reservations of those with the bloc’s superstate agenda whilst also recognizing the very clear security threat that the continent faces. War in Europe has focused minds.

The values that Europe represents are no longer restricted by geography.

Zaid M. Belbagi

The bloc is still reeling from the hurried simultaneous accession of 10 states in 2004. Aside from the economic challenges that ensued following the expansion compounded by the financial crisis, seven of these states were part of the former Eastern Bloc (of which three were from the former Soviet Union). This brought with it cultural challenges and also the complications of trying to integrate what Russia has always seen as her zone of influence.
The distant prospect of Moldovan and Ukrainian union membership, alongside unlikely Georgian and Finnish aspirations to join NATO in the context of war have highlighted the shortcomings of the current EU infrastructure to be inclusive while also coherent enough to be a defensive body. Macron highlighted that following the collapse of the USSR, Mitterrand’s proposed confederation stumbled as it suggested the inclusion of Russia, which was “unacceptable for the states that had just freed themselves from the yoke of the Soviet Union.” However, the central tenets of Mitterand’s premise, of how Europe should be organized from a political perspective broader than the EU, are more pertinent in the current climate.
There can be no doubt that the perceived failure and weakness of liberal democracies has encouraged authoritarian regimes to stress-test the EU, its capacity to intervene, and more importantly, its readiness to defend itself. The conflicts of the last century were born out of regional security imbalances, the emergence and reemergence of unilateralist Germany followed by the insecurity of a hollowed-out Europe at the liberty of the US and USSR. These imbalances led to the political architecture of Europe today.
However, Macron is right to highlight the clear shortcomings of this. The values that Europe represents are no longer restricted by geography. The Western Balkans and Caucasus hold sacred the same principles that are today being defended in Ukraine. Macron argued “this new European organization would allow democratic European nations that subscribe to our shared core values to find a new space for political and security cooperation.” However, where his plans stumble and fail to recognize the shortcomings of overstretch of the EU is in also claiming that a confederation would interfere in “cooperation in the energy sector, in transport, investments, infrastructures, the free movement of persons and in particular of our youth.”
The departure of Angela Merkel from the European political scene and Macron’s seeing-off of the most urgent far-right bid to take power in Europe has lent him some political capital to take the lead in Europe. The war in Ukraine certainly provides the correct circumstances. Nevertheless, the urgency of the situation should not be allowed to create an unrealistic coalition which can rally together in times of war but splinter in times of peace.
The UK, which voted to leave the EU, has been the staunchest European supporter and arms supplier to Ukraine: An important lesson if any that subscription to a union is not the only expression of shared values. Macron’s confederation will need to be united in action — expansions based on blue sky political projects soon fall apart (as frustration with the blue and yellow one so often has shown).

• Zaid M. Belbagi is a political commentator, and an adviser to private clients between London and the GCC.
Twitter: @Moulay_Zaid