IIF cuts 2022 global GDP growth estimate in half, flows to EM to drop 42%

Based on its new estimates, the global banking trade group said recession risk had risen as true growth was expected to flatline.
Based on its new estimates, the global banking trade group said recession risk had risen as true growth was expected to flatline.
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Updated 25 May 2022

IIF cuts 2022 global GDP growth estimate in half, flows to EM to drop 42%

IIF cuts 2022 global GDP growth estimate in half, flows to EM to drop 42%
  • ‘A certain degree of resilience’ expected from Middle East and North African oil exporters

NEW YORK: The Institute of International Finance slashed its 2022 growth outlook for global output in half, citing the economic effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s response to a COVID-19 wave and tighter monetary policy in the US.

The IIF also expects capital flows to emerging markets to shrink by 42 percent from last year.

Based on its new estimates, the global banking trade group said recession risk had risen as true growth was expected to flatline.

“Weakness is broad-based and leaves little margin for error,” IIF economists wrote in a report. “Global recession risk is elevated. In this context, we expect non-resident flows to emerging markets to slow significantly.”

The IIF cut its forecast for global GDP growth to 2.3 percent from 4.6 percent, with the G3 — the US, the euro area and Japan — growing at a 1.9 percent rate this year. They expect China’s growth to decelerate to 3.5 percent from 5.1 percent in the previous estimate.

“The omicron wave in China is more disruptive than we anticipated and will take a substantial toll on growth and capital flows,” the IIF said.

Growth in the euro area was previously cut to 1 percent from 3 percent, mostly on the effects of the invasion of Ukraine. “Importantly, because the statistical carryover from 2021 into this year is 1.9 percentage points, this is a recession forecast that anticipates falling GDP in the second half of the year.”

Growth in Latin America is forecast slightly faster at 2 percent on the back of high commodity prices, while the IIF expects “a certain degree of resilience” from Middle East and North African oil exporters.

The omicron wave in China is more disruptive than we anticipated and will take a substantial toll on growth and capital flows

Food scarcity a risk 

Export bans of agricultural goods in Russia and India, as well as the expected interruption to the sowing and harvesting in Ukraine, were cited as the IIF cautioned there was a wide risk of global food insecurity, with the Middle East and Africa likely the hardest hit.

“Asian countries are somewhat less exposed to the food price shock stemming from the Ukraine war due to more rice-focused diets, as rice prices have remained relatively subdued in recent years and appear overall less affected by global food price inflation,” the IIF said.

Capital flows to emerging markets are expected to slow “significantly,” according to the report, with nonresident flows dropping to $972 billion from $1.68 trillion last year. The figure drops to $645 billion when China is left out, down from $1 trillion.

HIGHLIGHTS

The IIF cut its forecast for global GDP growth to 2.3 percent from 4.6 percent, with the G3 — the US, the euro area and Japan — growing at a 1.9 percent rate this year.

Economists expect China’s growth to decelerate to 3.5 percent from 5.1 percent in the previous estimate.

Russia is seen posting outflows of about $29 billion after taking in over $58 billion last year and China, the largest single recipient, is seen absorbing $327 billion this year from over $668 billion in 2021.

Mexico, Argentina and Venezuela are among the few Latin American countries expected to see total flows rise this year, though in all cases the increase is from sharply subdued levels. Flows to Brazil are seen almost halving to $55.3 billion.


TASI begins July in green following a dismal June: Opening bell

TASI begins July in green following a dismal June: Opening bell
Updated 17 sec ago

TASI begins July in green following a dismal June: Opening bell

TASI begins July in green following a dismal June: Opening bell

RIYADH: Saudi stocks started their first trading session of July in green, following a dismal performance in June when the market lost 11 percent.

As of Sunday’s opening bell, TASI gained 0.60 percent to reach 11,591, while the parallel market, Nomu, added 0.17 percent to 21,622, as of 10:05 a.m. Saudi time.

This was led by a 3.03 percent gain in one of the Kingdom’s biggest lenders Saudi National Bank and a 0.26 percent gain in oil giant Aramco. 

Etihad Atheeb Telecommunication Co. gained 3.37 percent to lead the gainers, while Bupa Arabia for Cooperative Insurance Co. slipped 2.51 percent to lead the fallers.

In the financial sector, the Kingdom’s largest valued bank Al Rajhi edged up 0.85 percent, while Alinma Bank climbed 0.90 percent.

Al Moammar Information Systems Co. added 2.22 percent, after being awarded SR34 million ($9 million) by Saudi Co. for Comprehensive Technical and Security Control as well as SR21.9 million by King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology.

Abdullah Al Othaim Markets Co. edged down 0.19 percent, after reporting that it canceled the initial public offering plans for its malls unit.

Oil prices closed Friday with US West Texas Intermediate crude at $108.43 per barrel and Brent crude at $111.63 per barrel.


Saudi IT firm Al Moammar secures $15m in contracts with two firms

Saudi IT firm Al Moammar secures $15m in contracts with two firms
Updated 29 min 11 sec ago

Saudi IT firm Al Moammar secures $15m in contracts with two firms

Saudi IT firm Al Moammar secures $15m in contracts with two firms

RIYADH: Saudi IT solution provider Al Moammar Information Systems Co. won an SR34.4 million ($9 million) project with the Saudi Co. for Comprehensive Technical and Security Control.

The deal, valid for 36 months, is to implement a project to raise the operational efficiency of the security firm.

The IT firm, known as MIS, was also awarded a three-year contract with King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology worth SR21.9 million, according to a bourse filing.

In a separate announcement, MIS said its board approved the distribution of SR36 million in dividends at SR1.2 per share for the first half of 2022.


Here’s what you need to know before Tadawul trading on Sunday

Here’s what you need to know before Tadawul trading on Sunday
Updated 34 min 3 sec ago

Here’s what you need to know before Tadawul trading on Sunday

Here’s what you need to know before Tadawul trading on Sunday

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia’s stock market posted its second-largest monthly decline of the year in June, led by fears of interest rate hikes weighing on investor optimism.

TASI, as the main index is known, ended June losing 11 percent to reach 11,523 at the closing bell of Thursday’s session, while Nomu exited the month at 21,585.

Elsewhere in the Gulf, stock exchanges of Dubai, Qatar, Abu Dhabi, and Oman shed between 0.1 and 0.7 percent, while those of Bahrain and Kuwait were up 0.8 and 0.2 percent, respectively.

In energy trading, Brent crude settled at $111.63 a barrel on Friday, while US West Texas Intermediate reached $108.43 a barrel.

Stock news

The Saudi National Bank will distribute dividends of SR4.9 billion ($1.3 billion) in total to its shareholders for the first half of 2022

Saudi Industrial Development Co.’s unit Sleep High signed a deal worth SR12.7 million annually with Emmdad Logistics Services

Al Moammar Information Systems Co. won a SR34.4 million project with the Saudi Co. for Comprehensive Technical and Security Control in addition to a SR21.9 million deal with King Abdulaziz City for Science and Technology

Al Moammar Information Systems Co.’s board of directors approved the distribution of SR1.2 per share in dividends for the first half of 2022

Arabian Pipes Co. was awarded a SR60 million deal to supply oil and gas steel pipes to oil giant Aramco

International Human Resources Co. intends to proceed with a 20-percent stake initial public offering on Saudi Arabia’s parallel Nomu market

Arabian Centres Co. declared a cash dividend of SR0.75 per share for the second half of its fiscal year ended March 31, 2022

Banque Saudi Fransi signed a SR44 million contract with Allianz Saudi Fransi Cooperative Insurance Co. for credit life insurance coverage

Shareholders of ACWA Power Co. approved the recommendation to distribute a SR0.77 dividend per share for 2021

Thimar Development Holding Co.’s losses widened by 79 percent to SR11.7 million in 2021

Shareholders of Bupa Arabia for Cooperative Insurance Co. approved a dividend payout of SR4.5 per share for the fiscal year 2021

L’azurde Co. for Jewelry got its shareholders’ approval to distribute cash dividends of SR0.25 per share for 2021

Al-Alamiya for Cooperative Insurance Co. sealed a five-year bancassurance distribution agreement with Riyad Bank

Unitholders of Albilad Saudi Sovereign Sukuk ETF are set to receive SR80,808 in total as cash dividends for the month of June

Saudi Real Estate Co.’s subsidiary Tamear got its shareholders’ approval to reduce capital from SR100 million to SR34 million

Calendar

July 4, 2022

Launch of single-stock futures trading on Tadawul

July 7, 2022

Saudi Exchange will close for Eid Al Adha holidays and resume trading on July 13


Saudi iHR selects Yaqeen Capital to advise on IPO for 20% stake

Saudi iHR selects Yaqeen Capital to advise on IPO for 20% stake
Updated 45 min 42 sec ago

Saudi iHR selects Yaqeen Capital to advise on IPO for 20% stake

Saudi iHR selects Yaqeen Capital to advise on IPO for 20% stake

RIYADH: Saudi recruitment service provider International Human Resources has selected Yaqeen Capital to advise on its potential initial public offering on the Kingdom’s stock market.

The company is looking to offer 500,000 shares, representing 20 percent of its capital, on the parallel market Nomu, according to a filing.

The IPO will be confined to qualified investors, who will be allowed to subscribe starting July 31 until Aug. 2.

Established in 2005, iHR offers human resources solutions and employment-related consultancy to businesses.

Saudi iHR selects Yaqeen Capital to advise on IPO for 20% stake

RIYADH: Saudi recruitment service provider International Human Resources has selected Yaqeen Capital to advise on its potential initial public offering on the Kingdom’s stock market.

The company is looking to offer 500,000 shares, representing 20 percent of its capital, on the parallel market Nomu, according to a filing.

The IPO will be confined to qualified investors, who will be allowed to subscribe starting July 31 until Aug. 2.

Established in 2005, iHR offers human resources solutions and employment-related consultancy to businesses.


Saudi Aramco awards $16m steel pipes order to Arabian Pipes

Saudi Aramco awards $16m steel pipes order to Arabian Pipes
Updated 03 July 2022

Saudi Aramco awards $16m steel pipes order to Arabian Pipes

Saudi Aramco awards $16m steel pipes order to Arabian Pipes

RIYADH: Saudi oil giant Aramco has given out an order worth SR60 million ($16 million) to homegrown Arabian Pipes Co. to supply steel pipes.

The contract will be valid for one year, the Riyadh-based pipe manufacturer said in a statement to the Saudi stock exchange, Tadawul.

Arabian Pipes expects the transaction to impact its financial statements starting from the second quarter of 2023.

This comes as an extension to two contracts awarded by Aramco to Arabian Pipes so far this year, worth SR368 million in total.